What Dolphins learned from Bills’ January demolition
To better understand what must change for the Dolphins against Buffalo on Sunday, I subjected myself to a replay of the Bills’ season-ending 56-26 demolition of the Dolphins on Jan. 3. Poking my forehead with toothpicks might have been more pleasant.
But there were many things to be learned from that defeat and Miami’s 31-28 Week 2 home loss to the Bills. Before we get to that, a few things worth noting:
On offense, snaps given that day to receiver Lynn Bowden
Jr. and Isaiah Ford will instead go to Jaylen Waddle and Albert Wilson. ( Will Fuller is out Sunday due to a personal matter.)
Along with two offensive line changes and Jason McCourty replacing Bobby McCain at safety, the Dolphins defense subtracted Kyle Van Loy and
Shaq Lawson (who both struggled in that finale) and replaced them with Adam Butler, Elandon Roberts (missed the 2020
finale) and Jaelan Phillips.
The Bills have one new offensive line starter and replaced Dolphins-killer John Brown with receiver Emmanuel Sand
ers. Defensively, the Bills will have one huge piece who didn’t play in Week 17 against Miami: two-time Pro Bowl cornerback
Tre’Davious White. They’ll also have starting end Jerry
Hughes — who didn’t play in Week 17 — and a new starting defensive end, former UM rookie Greg Rousseau.
THINGS THAT MUST CHANGE
Slow Bills Pro Bowl receiver
Stefon Diggs, who caught 13 of 18 targets for 215 yards in the two games against Miami in 2020, and get the type of play generally expected from Xavien Howard.
In the Jan. 3 finale, Diggs caught 7 of 8 targets (including 2 for 2 for 26 yards against Howard). Howard had an interception in that finale, but the other five passes thrown against him were caught for 100 yards, including a 51-yarder to Gabriel Davis. Howard was great against 14 teams last season, subpar against the Bills. That must change.
Better slot cornerback play and the Nik Needham that we saw most of 2020.
Needham was very good against 14 teams last season, dreadful against Buffalo. (Do you sense a trend here?)
In two games against the Bills last season, he allowed 8-of-9 passes to be caught for 166 yards and three TDs (a QBperfect 158.3 passer rating in his coverage area). Backup Isaiah McKenzie tormented him. In the 14 other games, his passer rating against was 78.5, among the best in the league for slot corners. Go figure.
Get more pressure on Josh Allen. And keep him from running wild.
The Dolphins managed just two sacks in the two games against Buffalo last season (1.5 by Andrew Van Ginkel, and a half sack by Emmanuel Ogbah). The pass rush was so dismal in the finale that Miami got only two hits on Allen in his one half of work.
Ogbah produced four hurries in that game, but Allen consistently escaped trouble and killed the Dolphins with short and intermediate routes. Perhaps Butler and Phillips (who had a quiet debut) can get the pressure on Allen that Van Noy and Lawson couldn’t.
But Christian Wilkins, in four games, has never sacked Allen; he had 35 pass rushes against Bills quarterbacks in that finale and had only two hurries.
Allen has a ridiculous 340 yards rushing — and a 9.7 yard average per run — in six games against Miami, more than any team. Defensive coordinator
Josh Boyer said the defenders assigned to stop Bills running plays (including those by Allen) must stick to that and not take on other jobs.
The Dolphins blitzed the second-most of any team in Week 1 (45 percent of the time) but had only one sack. They blitzed 41 percent of the time when the opposing quarterback passed last season, second-most behind only Baltimore.
But blitzing didn’t work against Allen; the Dolphins blitzed him on 31 of 62 attempted passing plays and sacked him only twice in six quarters last season, with Allen producing a 134 passer rating in the two games.
Pittsburgh rarely blitzed him last Sunday and held the Bills to 16 points. That Steelers’ strategy would run counter to the Boyer/
Brian Flores philosophy but seems the smarter way to go on Sunday.
The good news: Allen has fumbled nine times (and lost three of them) in his past 10 games, and the Dolphins are good at creating takeaways.
AA better Jerome Baker.
In the finale, Baker allowed three of four targets to be caught for 40 yards. He missed two tackles and was part of a defense that relinquished two embarrassing long runs to former practice squad back Antonio Williams.
But Baker rushed only four times (and produced two pressures) in a game Buffalo dropped back to pass 39 times. That’s not enough for a player with seven sacks last season. Let Baker rush the passer Sunday!
AA more accurate Tua.
Tua Tagovailoa was hurt in that finale by four drops (including two by DeVante Parker
and one by Ford), poor separation by his receivers and bad luck on one of his interceptions, when Parker slipped and Josh Norman
— who’s no longer a Bill — picked it off.
But he also made bad decisions on two picks, was off with his accuracy on a half a dozen throws and miscommunicated with Parker on an incomplete thirdand-goal pass.
He was kept clean on 80.3 percent of his passing snaps that day but had just a 58.9 passer rating on those snaps, which must improve. So must his 1 for 9 accuracy on throws between 11 and 20 yards in that Bills finale. Tagovailoa is 3 for 13 on throws longer than 10 yards through Week 1.
AA better Robert Hunt and Austin Jackson.
Hunt allowed Buffalo’s only sack in the finale (against Dion Dawkins) and four pressures. Jackson graded out horribly. The line produced no holes for Myles Gaskin (seven carries for 20 yards).
A Eliminate the foolish mistakes.
On one play, Tagovailoa had a feet first slide on a run near the goal line, which nearly foiled that drive.
THINGS TO BUILD ON
A Attacking cornerback Levi
Wallace in coverage.
Parker burned him for a long catch in the first game, and Mike Gesicki caught 3-of 3 passes against him for 52 yards. That’s an area the Dolphins can exploit. So basically Miami needs to throw to the receiver who’s not being covered by the Pro Bowler White.
A Attack linebacker Matt Milano in coverage.
That’s a vulnerability in the Bills’ defense; he allowed six completions for 86 yards in the finale, including 40 yards on two catches against Gaskin, who — along with Salvon Ahmed — can catch the Bills flat footed in the passing game.
A Use the tight ends!
Gesicki caught 13-of-20 targets for 177 yards in the two games against Buffalo. Two of Miami’s best offensive plays in the finale were throws to Durham Smythe
and Adam Shaheen.
A Biggest reason for hope?
Though Fuller’s absence hurts, Waddle and Wilson should be able to make more out of nothing than Bowden and Ford could in last year’s game.
CHATTER
A ESPN analyst and former Dolphins executive Mike Tannenbaum, who said before the 2020 draft that the Dolphins should draft Justin Herbert,
rated Tagovailoa third worst among all current starters, mentioning his lack of mobility and adding: “I just don’t see a high ceiling.”
A Marlins prospect Max Meyer, the third overall pick in 2020, finished his first professional season tied for the Double-A South Division lead in strikeouts (113) and leading the league in ERA (2.41).
The Marlins, in July, wanted to trade Meyer for Angels outfielder Brandon Marsh, but the Angels declined.
Marsh is hitting .267, with 18 homers and 47 RBI in his first 54 big-league games.
A One oddity about new Heat two-way player Caleb Martin:
He shot threes exceptionally well in his first season (20 for 37/54.1 percent) for Charlotte, but plunged to 31 for 125 last season for the Hornets (24.8 percent).