How Dolphins squandered best assets in their rebuild
Jimmy Johnson, when asked a couple of years ago about the Dolphins collecting a treasure trove of future draft picks, made the point: “The key is not getting draft picks. The key is picking the right players. There’s been plenty of teams with a bunch of draft picks.”
Johnson’s comment resonated in recent days. And there’s this disturbing question: Were most of the best assets collected during this Dolphins rebuild squandered on average players, or players not as good as alternative options with those draft picks?
There’s growing evidence of that, and if that continues, it will undermine the grand rebuild, if not torpedo it. Coach Brian
Flores has said the nucleus of this team will be the past three drafts.
Let’s examine the Dolphins’ use of premium assets on the first two days of the draft. The Dolphins had nine picks in the first, second or third rounds of the 2019 and 2020 drafts. (It’s too soon to judge the 2021 draft class.)
With the benefit of hindsight, perhaps two of those picks — if that — would still be the Dolphins’ logical picks in a draft do-over.
Now let’s be clear: If you did this exercise with every team, each would have multiple picks they would do over if given the chance. And general manager
Chris Grier and Flores have done good work eyeballing talent with late-round picks and undrafted rookies. Flores maximized the team’s talent in his first two years.
The problem is that the Dolphins have had too many missteps with their most precious draft assets. A fresh look at that issue:
2019 DRAFT
Defensive tackle Christian
Wilkins at No. 13: Though Wilkins hasn’t been a bust, the pick is regrettable because the next defensive lineman drafted — Carolina and former FSU defensive end Brian Burns — has been far better.
In 33 career games, Wilkins has 10 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and been part of a run defense that consistently has ranked in the bottom half in opponent yards per carry.
Burns, selected 16th, has 19.5 sacks and 16 more tackles for loss in 34 games.
Tennessee defensive tackle
Jeffrey Simmons, selected
19th overall, has more sacks than Wilkins (6.5) and has been the better run stopper. In ESPN’s recent ranking of the league’s top 10 interior defensive linemen, Simmons led all players in the top 10 in run-stop win rate, at 39.8%.
“No one is Aaron Donald, but [Simmons] might be the closest,” an unidentified NFL general manager told ESPN’s
Jeremy Fowler.
Wilkins is adequate, but that’s not enough for a top-15 pick, especially when the next two defensive linemen selected are clearly better.
The second-round debacle: This was a disaster, even by Dolphins standards. Miami traded the No. 48 pick in the second round and No. 116 pick in the fourth to the Saints for two second-round picks and a sixth-round selection (No. 202). That trade, on its own, was fine.
But one of the second-round picks acquired (62nd overall) was regrettably sent to Arizona for Josh Rosen, whose Dolphins career lasted six games and three starts.
Had they kept the 62nd pick, they could have drafted Pro Bowl receiver D.K. Metcalf, who went 64th to Seattle and has 2,433 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns in 35 games.
Had the Dolphins stayed at 48, they could have solved the center position by drafting the player New Orleans took (Texas A&M’s Eric McCoy, who was an All-Rookie selection) or Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Brown, who went 51st to Tennessee and has 2218 yards and 20 TDs in 33 games.
Michael Deiter at 78: Deiter looks like a serviceable starting center, so this pick can still be justified. PFF ranks him 15th of 33 centers in performance this season. He’s now going on injured reserve and is out indefinitely with foot and quadriceps injuries.
Guard Nate Davis, selected 82nd by Tennessee out of Charlotte, would have been the better choice.
Per PFF, he allowed just one sack while playing every snap last season, graded out well against the run and received two First-Team All-Pro votes.
2020 DRAFT
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at No. 5: Justin Herbert already is what Tagovailoa hopes to become: a top-12 NFL starter. Herbert has 37 touchdown passes, 13 interceptions and a 98.2 passer rating in 18 starts. Tagovailoa has 12 TDs, six interceptions and an 85.8 in 12 games and has missed games due to two separate injuries.
Perhaps Tagovailoa can someday achieve Herbert’s level of production. But Herbert is already there.
The Dolphins considered Herbert, but placed high value on Tagovailoa’s college accuracy; he completed 69.3 percent of his passes at Alabama compared with 64 for Herbert at Oregon. There were also reportedly Dolphins’ concerns about Herbert’s quiet personality, which has proven to be irrelevant.
Left tackle Austin Jackson at No. 18: Receiver Justin Jefferson — picked 22nd — has produced big numbers in Minnesota (108 catches, 1,654 yards, nine touchdowns) but the Dolphins — after ignoring tackle in free agency — felt compelled to select one in the draft and settled for what was left after the top four tackles were selected earlier that night.
Jackson’s 14 pressures allowed are third-most among tackles this season, even though he missed a game. He also committed two costly penalties last week.
Among others (besides Jefferson) who were picked shortly after Jackson and have been better pros so far: Chargers linebacker Kenneth Murray
(127 tackles, six for loss in 19 starts) and Baltimore linebacker Patrick Queen (129 tackles, four sacks in 19 starts).
Instead of selecting Jackson, the Dolphins should have drafted Jefferson and then acquired Washington’s Trent Williams
— an elite left tackle — in April 2020. San Francisco acquired Williams on the third day of the 2020 draft for a fifth-round pick in 2020 and a third-round pick in 2021. He made his eighth Pro Bowl and was PFF’s No. 1ranked tackle last season.
Imagine a combination of Williams and Jefferson in Miami; instead, the Dolphins used those resources on Jackson and
Jason Strowbridge, who was released, and tight end Hunter Long.
Cornerback Noah Igbinoghene at No. 30 (Miami originally had the 26th pick but traded down): This remains the most mystifying pick of the rebuild, because the Dolphins already had two of the league’s high-priced cornerbacks on the roster.
With the golden benefit of hindsight, Miami should have stayed at 26 (and taken Queen) or moved to 30 and drafted running back Jonathan Taylor, who has 1,340 yards rushing on 4.9 per carry in 18 games after the Colts selected him at No. 41.
Among corners taken in the second round, Dallas’ Trevon Diggs (six picks in two years) has outperformed the corners taken ahead of him (Igbinoghene and Jeff Gladney) and to a lesser extent, Chicago’s Jaylon Johnson.
Though running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire (picked
32nd) isn’t off to a great start this season, he and Detroit’s
D’Andre Swift (chosen 35th) would have been better picks than Igbinoghene. Both have
4.4 career rushing averages. Receiver Tee Higgins (771,026-8 TDs in 18 games for the Bengals) also would have been a better choice; he was chosen 33rd.
FYI: Trading down with
Green Bay from 26 to 30 netted Miami the 136th pick, which was dealt two days later with pick No. 141 for pick No. 111, which became guard Solomon Kindley.
Offensive tackle Robert Hunt at 39: This still has a chance to be a good pick; he played well at right tackle the final six weeks of last season but has been merely adequate (at best) so far at guard.
But a bunch of players selected shortly after him have been better: Taylor (41), Pittsburgh receiver Chase Claypool (picked 49th; 77 catches, 1,084 yards, nine TDs in 19 games), Baltimore running back J.K. Dobbins (averaged 6.0 per carry last season and out for the year with a torn ACL); and Tampa safety Antoine Winfield (very good as 19-game starter for Tampa Bay; had an interception of Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl).
So even though Hunt wasn’t a bust, there were better players available.
A Defensive tackle Raekwon Davis at 56: Like Hunt, it’s too soon to know, and this is the one pick where you could make the strongest case to stick with this selection in a draft do-over.
The Dolphins’ run defense improved when Davis was inserted in the lineup last season, and if he reaches his high ceiling — a big if — he could be a big piece of the rebuild when he returns at some point this season from a knee injury.
None of the players selected shortly after Davis has been exceptional.
Among players selected directly after Davis, production has been modest for Rams receiver Van Jefferson (26 catches, 356 yards), Jets receiver
Denzel Mims (24 catches, 397 yards) and Green Bay running back AJ Dillon (61 career carries; 4.9 average).
Patriots linebacker Josh Uche missed time with a foot injury but has four sacks in 11 games.
Ezra Cleveland is starting for Minnesota and is PFF’s 28thranked guard this season.
But I still stick with Davis in a re-draft.
Safety Brandon Jones at 70: The Dolphins know they have a smart player who can tackle (76 tackles, three sacks in 19 games).
But his pass coverage metrics have been poor in his career (28 completions in 33 targets against him for 278 yards), and that likely will prevent him from becoming a long-term NFL starter.
None of the players selected immediately after has been significantly better than Jones, if at all: Arizona offensive tackle
Josh Jones (three NFL starts), Detroit’s Jonah Jackson (started all 19 games at guard; PFF’s No. 48 guard), Jacksonville defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton (40 tackles and a sack in eight NFL starts), Buffalo running back Zack Moss (567 yards rushing on 4.3 per carry in 15 games), Saints linebacker
Zack Baun (25 tackles in 18 games and four starts), Tampa Bay running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn (26 career carries for 109 yards) and Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (21 tackles in 12 games and four starts).
So, like with the Deiter selection, the Jones pick can still be justified.
2021 DRAFT
It’s far too soon to know what will become of Jaylen Waddle (6), Jaelan Phillips (18), Jevon Holland (36) and Liam Eichenberg (who was picked 42nd and cost the Dolphins a 2022 third-rounder due the Giants). So any comparison with later picks is premature after three games.