Comparing Tua to peers through their first 16 starts
Now that Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has completed what — until 2021 — had been a full season worth of games, how do his first 16 NFL starts compare with those of his peers?
To assess that, we compared Tagovailoa’s statistics in his initial 16 NFL starts (excluding the two games when he played off the bench) with the first 16 starts — not appearances, but starts — of the other 19 quarterbacks that could reasonably be ranked among the NFL’s top 20 non-rookie QBs.
(See the first category below — passer rating — for the full list of the 20 we evaluated.)
And Tagovailoa stacked up favorably in several key statistical measures, including top 10 in three of them.
Here’s where Tagovailoa ranked in five notable areas:
PASSER RATING
Tagovailoa’s 89.7 rating in his 16 starts would rank him 10th on the list of arguably the game’s 20 best active quarterbacks.
That 89.7 trails the first 16 starts for Patrick Mahomes (111.8), Ben Roethlisberger (105.2), Dak Prescott (104.9), Deshaun Watson (102.2), Russell Wilson (100.0), Justin Herbert (97.3), Joe Burrow (95.3), Lamar Jackson (94.4) and Aaron Rodgers (93.8).
If Tagovailoa’s two games off the bench — garbage time against the Jets last season and last month’s game against Baltimore — were included, his passer rating would be 90.5 for his career, which would still rank 10th on this list.
His first 16-start passer rating topped those of Baker Mayfield (88.9), Tom Brady (88.3), Matt Ryan (87.7), Kyler Murray (87.4), Kirk Cousins (81.7), Carson Wentz (79.3), Derek Carr (76.6), Ryan Tannehill (76.1), Matt Stafford (75.8) and Josh Allen (70.8).
Conclusion: That Tagovailoa has a career rating of 90 with a limited, injury-riddled receiver core and a substandard offensive line bodes well for his future.
COMPLETION PERCENTAGE
Tagovailoa’s 66.7 completion percentage in his first 16 starts (it’s 67 percent if his two games off the bench are included) ranks second among these 20 quarterbacks, behind only Prescott (67.8).
Rounding out the top five: Herbert (66.5), Burrow (66.3) and Mahomes (66.1).
The bottom five: Allen (56.6), Stafford (57), Carr (58.1), Tannehill (58.3) and Ryan (61.1).
Conclusion: Accuracy might be Tagovailoa’s most special gift. Yes, the completion percentage might be lower if Tagovailoa threw deep more often. But he has been on target with deeper throws this season, completing 9 for 17 on passes that traveled at least 20 air yards; that’s second best behind Murray.
TOUCHDOWNS
Tagovailoa’s 21 TD throws in his first 16 starts is tied with Roethlisberger and Carr for 12th on this list of 20 — ahead of Jackson and Murray (20 apiece), Wentz and Ryan (16 apiece), Allen (15) and Tannehill (12).
Top three in this category: Mahomes (48), Watson (36) and Herbert (32).
But here’s the big caveat with lead the league in takeaways last season.
Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer, asked earlier in the season about the defense’s shift to more zone coverage and less blitzing, defended the change by saying every season is different and that his unit needed to adjust as other teams found ways to counter what they did in 2020. But as the trajectory of the entire season changed, a return to familiar ways has come with it. According to Pro Football Focus, the Dolphins defense is blitzing on 46.2 percent of passing plays during the winning streak.
The defense’s resurgence hasn’t come without a few new wrinkles, though. The unit’s standout performance against quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens included a unique game plan, blitzing young safeties Jevon Holland and Brandon Jones at a rate unseen in recent memory. Jerome Baker, normally a fixture at inside linebacker, has spent more time lining up on the edge, where the this category and the two that follow: Tagovailoa exited one of his 16 starts (against Buffalo) with a first-quarter injury (fractured ribs) after attempting only four passes. He also was replaced by Ryan Fitzpatrick the second half of losses to Denver and Las Vegas last season.
Perhaps he would be higher on this list (and the two below) if he played longer in those games.
Conclusion: The 21 TDs in 16 starts isn’t bad, but the Dolphins offense needs to score more points. A better offensive line and running game clearly would help Tagovailoa achieve that.
INTERCEPTIONS
Tagovailoa threw only 11 in his first 16 starts, which is tied with Ryan and Herbert for fifth best (fifth fewest picks) among these 20.
The only ones who threw fewer INTs in their first 16 starts among our group of 20: Prescott (4), Jackson (8), Roethlisberger (9) and Wilson (10).
The QBs who threw the most picks in their first 16 starts from our group: Stafford (23), Cousins (22), Allen and Mayfield (19 apiece) and Watson (16).
Conclusion: Tagovailoa, in the Carolina game, avoided the one or two mistakes that somewhat tarnished some of his previous starts.
He didn’t throw a pick in eight of his first 16 starts; he threw more than one pick only twice (two against Atlanta; three in the 2020 season finale against Buffalo).
If he can keep the interceptions to the 5-to-8 range per year, that would give him a chance to potentially be considered a top-10 QB eventually.
PASSING YARDS
Tagovailoa’s 3,348 yards in his 16 starts would rank him team has made use of his speed and athleticism.
“I think it gives us versatility,” coach Brian Flores said. “His versatility gives us flexibility to move him around, so we talk about that every week. [We want] the best spot to play really every player but specifically with Jerome.”
While it may be unreasonable to expect the Dolphins defense to maintain the standard of the past month, many of the quarterbacks that await the unit over the final five games of the season won’t evoke fear of a major drop-off, starting with Sunday’s game against the New York Giants.
Mike Glennon will start for the injured Daniel Jones, and after the Dolphins’ bye week, they will face New York Jets rookie Zach Wilson, who has struggled recently, and then either the New Orleans Saints’ Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian on “Monday Night Football.” The final two games of the season against the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots, when the
in 14th, barely behind Brady (3,360) and ahead of Tannehill, Carr, Jackson, Roethlisberger and Wilson.
But Tagovailoa would be higher if he had played more of that Bills game in Week 2 (or hadn’t been benched twice last season). Consider that his 209 passing yards per game would be 222.6 if the Week 2 Bills game were removed and his only other 15 starts were used to calculate this.
Mahomes (5,102), Herbert (4,673) and Mayfield (4,329) are top three in this category.
Conclusion: Tagovailoa has thrown for 300 yards in only three games: a win against Kansas City and losses to Buffalo (2020) and Jacksonville (this season).
He needs more big passing days to be considered a topthird of the league QB eventually. But he also needs a better cast around him and a good enough offensive line to give the staff confidence to call more vertical throws.
Quick caveat/postscript to our analysis: The four nonrookie quarterbacks omitted from our top 20 list who could make a strong case for the current top 20 are Jimmy Garoppolo, Teddy Bridgewater, Jalen Hurts and injured Jameis Winston.
Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Cam Newton and injured Fitzpatrick also were omitted from our top 20 of the best current non-rookie QBs.
Garoppolo (95.3) had a higher first 16-game passer rating than Tagovailoa — mostly because he produced significantly more passing yards (4,070) — but he made his first six starts over six seasons.
Winston was worse than Tagovailoa in his first 16 starts, producing an 84.2 rating, 58.3 completion percentage.
ADolphins could conceivably be 8-7, may ultimately be their toughest quarterback matchups, with former Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill and rookie Mac Jones, respectively.
However, Flores’ “one day at a time” mantra rings even louder for a team with very little margin for error.
“They’re really talented. They got a lot of great skill guys,” defensive lineman Christian Wilkins said of the Giants. “They got a good, strong, tough O-line. We’re definitely going to have to be prepared and have a great week of practice. I feel like we’re going in the right direction with that today, but just a lot of work to do. We can’t take these guys lightly. We can’t focus on anything else but the task at hand because they’re a really good team and they got a lot of weapons. They’ve competed with some really good teams so we’re going to have to play our best game this season this week.”
Daniel Oyefusi: DanielOyefusi
Bridgewater also was worse than Tagovailoa over his first 16 starts: 85.1 passer rating and barely more TDs (16) than interceptions (14).
Hurts, who made his 16th
NFL start last Sunday, also hasn’t been as good as Tagovailoa over their first 16 starts. Hurts has a much lower passer rating (82.1) and completion percentage (57.8), though he has thrown for six more yards than his former Alabama teammate in their respective first 16 starts.
So the fact Tagovailoa’s first 16 starts stack up on par or better than many of his peers offers historical reason for optimism.
CHATTER
Several longtime UM Board of Trustees members have not been given the type of input in the athletic director search that they had in the past. A new small group of power brokers is instead being heard, including Jose Mas and John Ruiz.
Besides the enormous dropoff in Duncan Robinson’s
three-point shooting percentage (40.8 last to 31.8 entering this weekend road trip), this also is hurtful:
No player who plays nearly as much gets to the line as rarely as Robinson except Lonzo Ball
and to a much lesser extent, Kevin Huerter and Robert Covington. Robinson has attempted eight free throws (with five makes) in 627 minutes; no player who has played as many minutes has taken fewer free throws.
If the Marlins need to trade a pitcher to acquire a starting outfielder, Elieser Hernandez
would be made available in a package. Braxton Garrett and Nick Neidert are considered available but wouldn’t net much without other pieces being included. The preference is to keep Pablo Lopez, though he’s not untouchable.
AAA