Two scouts assess Heat personnel and title chances
For NBA perspective on the Heat’s personnel and its playoff chances, we solicited input from veteran scouts from each conference, one of whom is a former NBA player. Their feedback, offered on condition of anonymity because their teams don’t permit them to speak publicly: On the Heat’s title chances:
Eastern scout: “I would put Miami one, Philadelphia two, Brooklyn three and Milwaukee four. Miami has got everything — depth, shooting, defense, a very good point guard who’s won, a great coach, guys that can get their own shot.
“Philadelphia’s starting unit [Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey and Danny Green or Matisse Thybulle] is very, very good. But I can’t pick Philadelphia or Brooklyn because there are so many question marks with chemistry. It’s not like they can have another training camp.
And I’m not convinced Milwaukee can do it again; they haven’t [fully] replaced P.J. Tucker.”
Western scout: “I don’t see Brooklyn or Philly winning four games in a series against Miami or Milwaukee. With Philly, who is going to guard Kyle [Lowry] and Jimmy [Butler]? Harden you have to hide on the defensive end. You can put Thybulle on one of Miami’s guys. But if you have Tobias on Jimmy and Thybulle on a shooter, who is stopping Kyle? Philadelphia sacrificed depth to get Harden. That’s going to hurt them.
“With Brooklyn, you can do single coverage with Kyle on Kyrie [Irving] and Jimmy on [Kevin] Durant. I know they have Patty Mills and [Seth] Curry, but you can double Durant and scheme to where [Ben] Simmons has to shoot. Miami and Milwaukee have enough defenders for those teams, especially if [Victor] Oladipo comes
AAback to guard people. Miami has so many dudes who understand what it takes to win.”
Western scout on Lowry: “One of smartest players I’ve been around. He and Jimmy don’t need to score a lot to impact the game. And whether they’re scoring or not, their defense doesn’t drop off. Kyle can get you 10 rebounds some nights; aside from [Russell] Westbrook, who else does that from the point guard position? Kyle has turned into an incredible leader.”
Eastern scout on Tyler Herro: “He got screwed out of the All-Star Game. He should have been there. He’s the league’s best sixth man this year, an All-Star level player. The fact he can now create his own shot and make it has taken him to a whole other level. Lou Williams won the Sixth Man Award [three times], and Herro is better than Lou Williams.”
The scout said: “I would not give up Herro [in a package] for [Bradley] Beal this summer. The talent differential is not big enough to do that now. And
Beal struggled this year” on threes, shooting 30 percent.
Western scout on Tucker:
“If Udonis Haslem had a [mirror image] son, P.J. Tucker would be it. The defense is a constant. I’m not surprised about the [league-high] threepoint shooting. He lost weight,
AAAlooks like he’s in great shape. He’s a culture guy that fits. If Jimmy or Kyle does crazy stuff, he has enough street cred to check them. P.J. is awesome.”
Eastern scout on Max Strus and Duncan Robinson: “To me, Strus is the better athlete, has the higher ceiling. I thought they could move Robinson before the deadline because of Strus’ evolution.”
Western scout, on Robinson: “I know the three-point shooting is down, but you can’t go into a game and say leave him wide open. You need to account for him, and that has an impact. If he’s shooting well, he’s going to get minutes. And he and
Strus provide space for Jimmy and Kyle. You don’t have to run much for [Strus and Robinson]. They get a lot of shots off double teams and dribble handoffs.”
Western scout on Bam Adebayo: “I love his game.
He’s a throwback. There aren’t a lot of people his size who are that rugged, can defend multiple positions who can play with or without the ball, pass that well with a crazy work ethic.”
Western scout on the Heat’s development program: “All their [top] guys on their summer league team have turned into something that has become an asset. I like Caleb Martin; versatile, can defend multiple positions, can shoot. Really athletic,
AAAAfearless, plays hard all the time. First to the floor. They identify these guys and they’re able to make them buy into this whole idea of working to be a better version of yourself.”
Western scout, on whether Omer Yurtseven can be an eventual starting NBA center: “I think he has the range. It’s not the offensive end of the floor that’s the question. It’s the defensive end. He can guard fives [centers] and rebound, but he’s going to have to be able to switch, guard and contain. If he develops into someone who can do that reliably, he could become an [NBA] starter eventually.”
Eastern scout on Gabe Vincent: “Not only has his shooting gotten better, but I think his play-making has gotten better.”
Western scout, on Oladipo: “If he comes back as any semblance of who he was, they are going to be scary. Forget about the offensive end. When he decided to lock up defensively in Houston last year, he still can do that. And you only need him to do it for a short amount of time because of their depth.” In two-on-two workouts witnessed after practice and before games, Oladipo has shown explosion and good lateral movement. The three-pointer has been hit and miss, depending on the day.
AAACHATTER
After dropping analyst Todd Hollandsworth, Bally Sports Florida is moving toward using a rotation of analysts, and we hear popular team broadcaster Tommy Hutton has emerged as a front-runner for one of those game analyst slots.
The Marlins have used only one game analyst each season for 19 of the past 20 years. But Bally and the Marlins will now alternate several analysts, with Hutton a favorite for one of the slots and Cliff Floyd, J.P. Arencibia and Gaby Sanchez under consideration for other slots. Three or four analysts will split the 150-to-160 game package alongside returning play-byplay man Paul Severino.
ESPN’s Todd McShay has the Dolphins selecting Northern Iowa offensive tackle Trevor Penning at No. 29, noting “the Dolphins’ offensive line is a mess. They’ve used four picks on Day 1 or Day 2 of the draft on the position group over the past three years. Not much has panned out; Miami’s 46.6% pass block win rate was last in the NFL in 2021. Penning is a mauler with a lot of upside.”
McShay also could make a case for Colorado State’s Trey McBride, a complete tight end who could potentially replace free agent Mike Gesicki. Penn State receiver Jahan Dotson, who McShay has going 30th, is another name on Miami’s radar.
During a chat with WQAM, new UM defensive coordinator Kevin Steele twice emphasized that “you have to have your best 11 players on the field.” Steele must find a way to play his three excellent safeties — James Williams, Avantae Williams and Kamren Kinchens — together at times. A case could be made to move James Williams to linebacker. …
New offensive coordinator Josh Gattis said his No. 1 goal this spring is to “develop the physicality of our team. It doesn’t mean we’re going to be ground and pound and running out of tight formations. It means we’re going to do things with a presence.” A power running game will be emphasized.
AAABarry Jackson: 305-376-3491, @flasportsbuzz