Russia is flexing its muscles in Latin America: How will Washington respond?
Idon’t want to be an alarmist, but there’s a growing risk that a new Cold War over the Russia-Ukraine conflict could spill over into Latin America, and intensify political divisions in the region.
The facts speak for themselves. Russia has been openly trying to expand its influence in Latin America in recent weeks, as the Ukraine crisis escalated. And Washington cannot sit idly by.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently gave red-carpet welcomes in Moscow to the presidents of Brazil and Argentina, and vowed to increase Russia’s economic and military ties with Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.
Yury Borisov, Russia’s deputy prime minister visited Venezuela on Feb. 16 and promised to deepen bilateral ties. Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro said after meeting with Borisov that they had made plans for a “powerful military cooperation.” From Venezuela, Borisov flew to Nicaragua and Cuba.
At least 68 Russian military advisors and technicians arrived in Venezuela in January, according to top Colombian officials.
Also in January, Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said that he could “neither confirm nor exclude” the possibility of sending Russian troops to Venezuela and Cuba if the United States and Europe didn’t curtail what he described as their escalating military activities in Eastern Europe.
In the past, Russia has sent Tupolev warplanes and military ships to Venezuela on at least three occasions for week-long missions. Venezuela has also bought at least 24 Sukhoi fighter jets and 50 helicopters and tanks from Russia during late president Hugo Chavez’s regime, which raised anxiety in neighboring Colombia.
Argentina’s populist President Alberto Fernandez made his recent pilgrimage to Moscow despite U.S. pleas to postpone his trip while Russia was amassing troops along Ukraine’s border. Fernandez publicly told Putin that he wanted Argentina to become Russia’s “entry door to Latin America.”
In Washington, U.S. officials are taking notice of Russia’s offensive in the region. While National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters last month that Russia’s deputy foreign minister Ryabkov’s veiled threats of sending troops to Venezuela
and Cuba were mostly “bluster,” White House officials are taking the latest Russian moves more seriously.
In Congress, a bipartisan bill presented by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-New Jersey, and Florida’s Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, called the “Western Hemisphere Security Strategy Act of 2022,” calls for an increase in security cooperation “to counter China and Russia’s malign influence in Latin America and the Caribbean.”
The bill would give the Biden administration six months to present to Congress a strategy for the Western Hemisphere, then another 90 days to begin implementing that plan. The legislative proposal has a better-thaneven chance of passing, congressional sources tell me.
In addition, a separate bill sponsored by Menendez, known as the U.S.Colombia
Strategic Alliance Act of 2022, proposes to expand bilateral ties on most fronts — including security issues — and to designate Colombia as a “Major Non-NATO ally.”
While Washington should not fall asleep while Russia expands its military presence in the region, an escalation of super-power tensions in Latin America would be bad news for the region. It would increase political divisions and further hinder the region’s economic integration, which is one of the biggest stumbling blocks for Latin America’s growth.
Latin America’s intraregional trade has already fallen to 12% of the region’s total trade, which makes it one of the least integrated areas in the world. That makes it difficult for Latin American countries to combine production efforts and make large-scale exports to the world’s biggest markets.
Moreover, an escalation of the East-West confrontation over Ukraine could lead to a world recession that would hurt Latin America’s exports. While the region’s commodity producers would benefit from an expected temporary rise in world prices of oil, metals and grains, these gains would be largely offset by a decline in imports by the United States, Europe and even China.
The Biden administration will have a great opportunity to improve ties with Latin American countries in June, when President Biden is scheduled to host a summit of Western Hemisphere leaders in Los Angeles.
But if there’s a full-scale war in Ukraine, there is a serious chance that Russia will keep stepping up its military presence in Latin America as a way of telling Washington, “If you break into my back yard, I’ll break into yours.”
What’s worse, arms traders could step into the scene and push their merchandise to corruptionridden governments. Perhaps, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for Biden to propose a new hemispheric commitment to avoid falling into a regional arms race. That would be the last thing Latin America needs.
Don’t miss the “Oppenheimer Presenta” TV show at 7 p.m. Sundays on CNN en Español. Twitter: @oppenheimera; Blog: www.andresoppenheimer.com