Assessing Dolphins’ wide receivers and running backs
Dolphins nuggets on wide receiver and running back, two positions that will be significantly addressed:
• At running back, the options are simple:
Either draft one of the top half-dozen backs after declining to do so the past two years, or sign a free agent from a list headlined by Arizona’s James Conner (700 rushing yards, 3.7 per carry, 14 TDs); Tampa Bay’s
Leonard Fournette (812 yards, 4.5 per carry, eight touchdowns); Arizona’s Chase Edmonds (592, 5.1, two TDs); Denver’s Melvin Gordon (808 yards, 4.2 per carry, seven TDs), Atlanta’s multi-purpose Cordarrelle Patterson (607, 4.1, six TDs); and the Rams’ Sony Michel (802, 4.3, four TDs).
And it wouldn’t be surprising if the Dolphins pursue one of the 49ers free agent running backs coached by new coach
Mike McDaniel. That group includes Raheem Mostert (coming off a serious knee injury but has a sterling 5.7 career average on 284 carries) and Jeff Wilson (4.2 career average but just 3.7 last season). Mostert is expected to be ready by the start of the season. Cleveland restricted free agent D’Ernest Johnson is another name to keep in mind.
• Unless the Dolphins take Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker or Iowa State’s Breece Hall at No. 29 (the odds are against that), they will likely to need to address the position with pick 50 or with their thirdround pick (a compensatory 49ers pick likely to fall between 100 and 104).
It’s unclear if Walker or Hall would be there at 50. Hall ran for 1,472 yards (5.8 per carry) and 20 touchdowns. Walker led the nation in rushing with 1,646 yards and was 15th in yards per carry (6.2) and had 18 touchdowns. Texas A&M’s Isaiah Spiller (1,011 yards last season, 5.6 per carry) also would be an option at No. 50.
If the Dolphins take a back with their third-round pick, at least one among this group should be available: Notre Dame’s Kyren Williams (995 yards, 4.9 per carry); FIU’s
D’vonte Price (682 yards, 5.3 per carry); Arizona State’s Rachaad White (1,000, 5.5 per carry); Georgia teammates
James Cook (728 rushing yards, 6.4 per carry) and Zamir White (856 yards rushing, 5.6 per carry, 11 TDs); and Alabama’s Brian Robinson (1,336 rushing yards, 4.4 per carry, 14 TDs).
“I love this running back group,” said NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah, who rates Spiller as his top back. “I don’t think there’s going to be one that goes in the first round. You’re going to get a great back in the fourth round, especially if you want a bigger back.”
• Only one experienced running back is under contract:
Myles Gaskin, who’s due $2.5 million (none guaranteed).
Salvon Ahmed is an exclusive rights free agent, giving the Dolphins a chance to keep him. But his per carry average dropped from 4.3 to 2.8 and his attempts from 75 to 54.
Malcolm Brown, Duke Johnson and Phillip Lindsay are unrestricted free agents. Johnson made a strong case to return, averaging 4.6 on 71 carries.
• Yards after contact remained a problem for Dolphins runners, with the exception of Johnson, who averaged 2.8 after contact.
Gaskin’s 2.18 yards after contact was worst in the league for any player who had more than 100 carries.
And Gaskin’s overall per carry average of 3.5 was lowest among 23 running backs who carried the ball at least 170 times. In fact, only one other running back who received more than 100 carries had an average as low or lower: Mark Ingram (3.5 on 160 carries) and
Rex Burkhead (3.5 on 122). Gaskin could return but not as a starter.
• Beyond Jaylen Waddle, there’s not a single other receiver on the roster who can assume he will be on the 2022 team.
Will Fuller, Albert Wilson, Isaiah Ford and Mack Hollins will be unrestricted free agents, and only Hollins (and possibly Ford) seem likely to return.
Preston Williams will be a restricted free agent, but it’s more likely that the Dolphins make him an unrestricted free agent than tender him at $2.6 million.
DeVante Parker is under contract at a reasonable $5.6 million next season, but none of that money is guaranteed. His cap hit drops from $8.7 million to $5.4 million if he’s cut or traded before June 1 — which is hardly worth the savings. His dead money cap hit drops to
$2.7 million if he’s cut after
June 1.
None of Allen Hurns’ $2.5 million salary next season is guaranteed, and he’s a toss-up at best to make the 53. His cap hit drops from $3 million to $433,000 if he’s cut, plus Miami saves the full salary.
The only other experienced receiver under contract: Lynn Bowden, who missed the season with a hamstring injury.
He’s due to make $1 million (none of it guaranteed) in 2022, with no cap hit if he’s cut. He fits McDaniel’s offense.
• Two options loom potentially late in the first round: Alabama’s Jameson Williams and Penn State’s Jahan Dotson. Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave and Arkansas’
Treylon Burks figure to be gone by Miami’s pick.
There are at least 20 startingcaliber wide receivers in free agency, headlined by Tampa Bay’s Chris Godwin (coming off an ACL injury) and Green Bay’s DeVante Adams (who could get the franchise tag).
Amari Cooper (68 catches, 865 yards, eight TDs) is expected to be released by Dallas, and the Miami Northwestern standout would make a logical target.
The best of the rest: Chicago’s
Allen Robinson, the Chargers’
Mike Williams, New England’s Jakobi Meyers, the Jets’ Jamison Crowder, New Orleans’ Deonte Harris, Buffalo’s Emmanuel Sanders and Arizona teammates AJ Green and
Christian Kirk.
• Yards after catch — a deficiency for Dolphins’ wide receivers in 2020 — remained a shortcoming in 2021. The Dolphins were 25th in YAC last season. The 49ers, conversely, were eighth and YAC will be important in McDaniel’s Dolphins offense.
Not a single Dolphins player ranked in the top 50 in the league in YAC. Waddle was tied for 60th, Parker 111th.
• Separation also remained a deficiency in 2021. Per Next Gen Stats, Parker and the Giants’ Kenny Golladay were the league’s worst qualifying receivers in average yards of separation created, at 1.7 yards per target. Waddle was above average at 3.3.
• Here were the passer ratings of Dolphins receivers when targeted: Ford 151.0; Hollins 101.6; Waddle 91.9; Parker 74.9; Wilson 71.1; Fuller 57.3 (he played only 62 snaps); Williams 51.8.
CHATTER
• We’re told that Derek Jeter’s departure from the Marlins was more owner Bruce Sherman’s decision than Jeter’s. Sherman told an associate it would be difficult for him to publicly fire Jeter, even with Sherman’s unhappiness about some aspects of how the team was being run and the low attendance. So it was phrased a mutual parting.
The Jeter camp is pushing the message that the team isn’t going to spend much more, but the Marlins dispute that.
Former big-leaguer J.P. Arencibia, who worked some Marlins games on radio last season, will call 50 games on TV with play-by-play man Paul Severino. Tommy Hutton also is expected to get a significant package of games.
• If the Heat begins losing and Duncan Robinson struggles, something to keep in mind: Max Strus has averaged 18.2 points in 10 games as a starter, shooting 45 percent on threes, and Miami is 8-2 in those games.
• Among the rules in UM’s new conditioning program: You cannot put your hands on your hips or head.