How Russia’s war in Ukraine is shuffling U.S. alliances in Latin America
U.S. and Russian officials engaged in a flurry of diplomatic talks with Latin American and Caribbean leaders before the war started. The pace of diplomacy has only intensified since the fighting began.
WASHINGTON
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reverberated across the globe, including in the Western Hemisphere, where both Washington and Moscow see the crisis as an opportunity to shift regional alliances in their favor.
U.S. and Russian officials engaged in a flurry of diplomatic talks with Latin American and Caribbean leaders before the war started. The pace of diplomacy has only intensified since the fighting began. And many countries in the region have responded by walking a delicate line, declining to support Russia’s invasion abroad without forcefully condemning it at home.
Officials in the Biden administration are taking Russia’s moves seriously and are closely monitoring how countries in the region respond.
“There’s been Russian outreach,” said one senior administration official. “There’s been a lot of travel by Russian officials to Latin America and the Caribbean in the months prior to and following the invasion of Ukraine. Some of that is bluster. Some of that is tangible and concerning.”
Where diplomacy has not worked for Moscow, the White House says that Russia is working to destabilize democracies across the region through coercive diplomacy, disinformation and cyberattacks. The recent pace of that activity has alarmed allies and forced the administration to devote more diplomatic and economic resources to fight back.
The administration’s strategy, the official said, is to increase its engagement with governments across the Western Hemisphere — including longtime adversaries of the United States and allies of Russia. In the past couple of weeks, the Biden administration boosted staffing at the U.S. Embassy in Cuba and launched talks with President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela.
“Russia seeks a Cold War-like response from the United States, where we’re dividing the region into those who are friends and who are allies,” the official added. “That would certainly be a mistake.”
ARGENTINA
Russia’s influence in Argentina has been growing over the years, a development highlighted on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine when President Alberto Fernández met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.
During the visit in early February, Fernández said there is the need for his
country to abandon its economic “dependence” on the United States and the International Monetary Fund, and agreed to strengthen bilateral cooperation and trade relations between Russia and the South American nation.
Argentina can serve as a “point of entry” for Russia to expand its presence in Latin America, he offered.
Argentina and Russia hold a series of bilateral agreements signed as far back as the ’70s, including technical military cooperation, cooperation on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and on the mutual protection of secret information in the field of technical-military cooperation.
BRAZIL
Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, visited Putin in Moscow just days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. Bolsonaro has pledged neutrality on the conflict ever since — but the nation’s vice president has condemned it, and its U.N. ambassador voted against Russia in a General Assembly vote on the conflict last week, accusing Moscow of “crossing the red line.”
As two nations within the BRICS — an economic association of Brazil, Russia, India, China and
South Africa, five emerging economies — Brazil and Russia have grown increasingly intertwined in recent years, with Bolsonaro and Putin fostering a strong personal relationship.
Before their meeting in February, the Kremlin said that Putin planned to raise “current issues in today’s global order” with the Brazilian president. Bolsonaro, for his part, said he went to Moscow to secure a deal on Russian fertilizers for Brazil’s agricultural sector.
COLOMBIA
One of America’s closest military allies in the region and a formal partner of NATO, Colombia has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the outset and supports international sanctions on Moscow.
“We have made a strong stand against the brutal, unjustified attack from Russia to Ukraine,” Colombian President Iván Duque Márquez said while visiting the White House on Thursday. “This has been a very horrifying moment for the world.”
Duque has long been concerned about Russia’s military sales to neighboring Venezuela, and he expressed skepticism recently over Washington’s surprise outreach to Maduro, whose grip on power has led to an overwhelming refugee surge to Colombia since 2015.
In Washington, Duque said that Colombia continues to view Maduro as a negative force in the region and noted that Bogotá currently produces more barrels of oil per day than Caracas does.
CUBA
Cuba has a longstanding relationship with Russia and remains one of its strongest allies in the region. But even Havana declined to endorse Putin’s war in Ukraine in a telling U.N. General Assembly vote that took place in the days after the assault began.
While Cuba has aligned with Putin by parroting the Kremlin’s justifications for the invasion and spreading disinformation about the conflict through its state media, it is trying to walk a fine line in its public statements, avoiding condemnation of Russia but also staying away from a full endorsement of the war. Russia is an important creditor and the two countries have strengthened military and security cooperation in the past few years. But Europe and Canada are also important trading partners and investors in the country and the Cuban leadership is wary of further sanctions that could tank the island’s economy, already in shambles.
At home, Cuba’s messaging to its people on the war has been a different story. State officials have blamed the United States for the conflict, and Cuban state media has joined
Russia Today and Telesur, a Venezuelan-led channel, in a propaganda campaign to justify the invasion. Cuban state media is also promoting the Kremlin’s allegations that the U.S. has financed a program to develop chemical weapons in Ukraine. U.S. officials have forcefully responded to those claims, calling them “outright lies.” The Ukrainian government has also denounced the allegations as false.
NICARAGUA
Nicaragua’s full-throated support for Russia’s “battle for peace,” as Daniel Ortega referred to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, came as little surprise, as the two countries have become closer in the past few years, especially through military cooperation, much of which is cloaked in secrecy. Russia operates what is suspected to be a listening post out of a compound close to the U.S. Embassy in Managua. And experts speculate about what the Nicaraguan authoritarian leader might do with 50 T-72 Russian tanks he bought in 2015.
While presenting himself as a fighter against imperialism, Ortega has been making concessions to the Russian government even to meddle in the Central American nation’s own political affairs. A cybersecurity agreement signed last year allows Russia to aid Ortega in countering “information security threats.”
But while Russia has presented itself as an alternative to the U.S., even providing Nicaraguan officers with counternarcotics training and helping Ortega stay in power, it has little to offer in terms of economic aid, even before the recent widescale sanctions that have severely impacted its economy. In the days leading to the invasion, Ortega received two highranking Russian delegations. Still, Nicaragua followed Cuba in abstaining in a consequential
U.N. vote to pass a resolution condemning Russia.
VENEZUELA
Venezuela is one of Russia’s staunchest allies in Latin America, and the two countries have a number of joint ventures to develop mining and oil projects. The socialist regime in Caracas has also found in Putin a critical partner who has helped the country bypass the
U.S. sanctions imposed on its oil industry.
According to Maduro regime insiders, a large part of the wealth accumulated by government elites is currently deposited in Russian banks, which has been a great source of concern since the United States and Europe announced they would block access to some of these banks to Swift, a system widely used around the world to transfer money.
Russia is also Venezuela’s most important weapons provider, selling over the years more than $11 billion in hardware, including Su-30 fighters, Mi-17 and Mi-35 helicopters, T-72 tanks and
BMP-3 and BTR-80 armored vehicles, and S-300 air defenses.
Michael Wilner: 202-383-6083, @mawilner Nora Gámez Torres: 305-376-2169, @ngameztorres
Antonio Maria Delgado: 305-376-2180, @DelgadoAntonioM