Miami Herald (Sunday)

Bobrovsky, Knight make good goalie ‘problem’ for Panthers as playoffs near

- BY DAVID WILSON dbwilson@miamiheral­d.com

On the final day of March, Sergei Bobrovsky played one of the best games of his career. He saved all 37 shots he faced for his fourth shutout as a Florida Panther and his third of the season. He faced 13 highdanger chances and stopped them all, including eight in the second period. In one midperiod stretch, the Panthers lost track of Alex DeBrincat in front of the goal and Bobrovsky stuff the Chicago Blackhawks star twice in a row, then slid to his left to block one more attempt from Dylan Strome on the rebound.

A few seconds later, Ryan Lomberg scored and the momentum swung to Florida. Bobrovsky preserved his shutout in the third period by making one more spectacula­r save: He was on the right side of his crease to track DeBrincat, and when the winger’s shot went wide and bounced off the boards behind Bobrovsky, the star goaltender had to scramble all the way to the other side to deny Strome once more. The NHL named Bobrovsky one of its Three Stars of the Month the next day.

“It’s very encouragin­g,” interim coach Andrew Brunete said after the blowout win. The 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs were approachin­g and Bobrovsky, the Panthers’ highest paid player, had just put together a perfect month. He was playing as well as he ever had since coming to South Florida on a seven-year, $70 million deal back in 2019.

In the next week, Bobrovsky couldn’t finish a game. He started last Saturday against the New Jersey Devils, gave up six goals on 25 shots in two periods and got benched, and then the Panthers rallied from four goals down for a stunning overtime win. He started again Tuesday against the Toronto Maple Leafs and it was deja vu: He gave up four goals on 14 shots in just 21:57 and got benched, and Florida again rallied from four down for another overtime win.

In those two games, rookie goaltender Spencer Knight saved 25 of 27 shots — with a pedestrian 26-of-29 performanc­e to beat the Buffalo Sabres in between — and has at least added intrigue the Panthers’ goaltendin­g debate.

With only a dozen games left, Florida has to figure out who its goalie will be when the Stanley Cup playoffs start next month. Will the Panthers go with Bobrovsky, who has spent much of the year playing at an All-Star level and has two Vezina Trophies on his résumé, or will they consider turning to his 20-year-old backup?

Right now, Brunette insists it’s not a debate.

“Bob’s our goalie until otherwise notice,” he said.

THE ENIGMATIC STAR: SERGEI BOBROVSKY

For the last few years, evaluating Bobrovsky wasn’t difficult: He wasn’t good. In his first season in Florida, Bobrovsky had a paltry .900 save percentage and he followed it up with a .906 save percentage last year — both numbers were worse than he had in any of his seven seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets.

This year, it’s much more complicate­d. Entering the weekend, Bobrovsky’s save percentage was up to .911 and his goals against average down to 2.71. Neither of those marks are great — they rank 21st and 19th among qualified players, respective­ly — but they’re significan­t improvemen­ts from last year and don’t tell the whole story.

The advanced numbers look much more kindly on Bobrovsky. The 33-year old Russian has saved 18.8 goals above expected and 0.43 goals above expected per 60 minutes, and has been worth 3.13 wins above replacemen­t, according to MoneyPuck.com. Among goalies with at least 23 games played, those three numbers rank sixth, fifth and sixth, respective­ly.

The main reason for the disparity could especially be seen Tuesday. Of the four goals Bobrovsky gave up to the Maple Leafs, three came on high-danger chances off either breakaways or massive defensive breakdowns.

“He was exceptiona­l in the first period. It wasn’t about Bob,” Brunette said. “Bob’s been exceptiona­l all year and we weren’t exceptiona­l the last couple games in front of him . ... It doesn’t matter who’s in net if we play like we played the other night and in the Jersey game.”

Bobrovsky has posted a .761 save percentage against unblocked highdanger chances this year — the seventh-best mark in the league. Although the number has slipped a bit lately, Bobrovsky’s proficienc­y against the toughest shots he faces outweighed the gaffes.

There are, after all, plenty of gaffes. Against low-danger chances, Bobrovsky’s .973 save percentage ranks just 16th in the league and his .872 save percentage against medium-danger chances ranks just 34th.

In some ways, these unusual splits make him perfectly suited for Florida, which has given up the eighth most high-danger chances per 60 minutes in the NHL. Bobrovsky has the ability to bail out the

Panthers.

In others, it makes him a massive gamble for Florida, which ranks in the top five of every puck-possession metric. Do the Panthers really want to dominate possession and still risk losing a playoff game because Bobrovsky lets in a few inexplicab­le goals on their opponents’ few chances?

THE ROOKIE ALTERNATIV­E: SPENCER KNIGHT

Brunette’s current position on Knight, Bobrovsky’s alternativ­e, is he’s “a really good luxury.”

“He’s capable,”

Bruentte said. “He’s played in playoff game.”

In the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs, he was also certainly more reliable than Bobrovsky. The veteran played in three playoff games, started two, got benched once, and posted an .841 save percentage with a 5.33 goals against average. Knight took over, stopped 36 of 37 shots to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 5 of a first-round series and then got beaten three times on 23 shots as Florida got eliminated in Game 6.

In the preseason, Knight got every chance to compete with Bobrovsky to start — he might have been the potential favorite for the Calder Memorial Trophy if he could win the job — and he couldn’t beat out the two-time All-Star. He started slow — his save percentage was just .896 on New Year’s Day — and he spent nearly all of February in the American Hockey League to get regular playing time while Bobrovsky was rolling.

Since he returned from AHL Charlotte last month, Knight has been great, though. He has a .917 save percentage in 10 appearance­s — compared to .881 in seven during the same stretch for Bobrovsky — and he now has the fourth best high-danger save percentage in the NHL at .781.

He still, however, has lowand medium-danger save percentage­s worse than Bobrovsky, and has posted a single-game save percentage worse than .900 in 46.4 percent of his appearance­s, compared to 37.0 percent for Bobrovsky. In reality, Knight hasn’t been any more consistent or reliable than Bobrovsky this year.

Bobrovsky has been better all year long. Knight is playing better right now. The Panthers swear they’ll be confident no matter who’s in goal, but confidence can fade fast when a season can end in four games.

David Wilson: 305-376-3406, @DBWilson2

 ?? DAVID SANTIAGO dsantiago@miamiheral­d.com ?? With only a handful of games left in the season, the Panthers will have to decide who their playoff goalie is: Two-time Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky, right, or Spencer Knight.
DAVID SANTIAGO dsantiago@miamiheral­d.com With only a handful of games left in the season, the Panthers will have to decide who their playoff goalie is: Two-time Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky, right, or Spencer Knight.

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