Dolphins hoping Tua can follow Allen’s path with Bills
Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa are nothing like each other physically. Allen is a strapping 6-5 with a cannon for an arm. Tagovailoa is at least five inches shorter and came into the league a far more accurate quarterback than Allen was.
But ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky made an interesting point comparing the two:
Orlovsky cited how the Bills improved the cast around Allen after his second season, and his passer rating jumped from 85.3 in the second year of his career to 107.2 in his third.
With Tagovailoa’s situation, “it’s a little like Buffalo and Josh Allen in his third year where they got [Pro Bowl receiver] Stefon Diggs and beefed up the offensive line and hired Brian Daboll as a play-caller, who totally understood what Josh was going to be good at,” Orlovsky said.
“They used him the exact way his skill and talents were going to allow him to thrive. I think that’s exactly the similar situation Tua now has in Miami.”
The Dolphins’ decision to stick with Tagovailoa extends beyond coach Mike McDaniel’s confidence in him, which was never clearer than when he said on Dan Le Batard’s podcast last week that Tagovailoa throws “the most accurate, catchable ball I’ve ever seen.”
The Dolphins also believe it’s premature to form a final judgment on a quarterback after two seasons, especially with how former coach Brian Flores
treated Tagovailoa, both in terms of benching him at times as a rookie and berating him at others.
Allen stands as the best recent example of a huge third-year jump. He went from 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions in Year 2 to 37 and 10 in Year 3.
The Dolphins will be giddy if Tagovailoa can make the same rise from his year two numbers: 90.1 passer rating, 16 TDs and 10 interceptions.
Yes, Allen’s physical stature gave him more of a chance to make that jump. But Allen didn’t complete that ascent until the Bills imported a Pro Bowl receiver and a better offensive line, just as the Dolphins have done (with Tyreek Hill and Terron Armstead and Connor Williams, beyond three new running backs).
Tagovailoa already is in the top third of the league in accuracy, far more accurate that Allen was in his first season. Allen’s completion percentage through two years was 55 percent; Tagovailoa’s is 66, albeit with a lot of shorter throws.
So hoping for an Allen-like jump, while awfully optimistic because of Allen’s superior physical gifts, certainly cannot be ruled out.
As for whether the Dolphins are good enough to challenge the Bills in the division, ESPN’s Marcus Spears and NFL Network’s David Carr insist the Dolphins have positioned themselves to have a legitimate chance to overtake Buffalo. But NBC’s Cris Collinsworth
warns that Buffalo is the best team in football.
Tagovailoa’s numbers naturally will improve because of yards after catch from Hill,
Acamp signing, Alexander has 25 career starts, a number that only trails Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the team. Selected 16 spots after Howard in the 2016 draft, Alexander, 5-10 and 192 pounds, has mainly lined up as a slot cornerback in the NFL. He could provide depth behind slot corner Nik Needham or potentially step into the nickel role if Jones, who remains on the physically-unable-to-perform list, is not ready for Week 1 and Needham has to move to the boundary.
“Everybody knows where [Alexander has] had his production from,” coach Mike McDaniel said, “but ... every defensive scheme has their specific techniques. Sometimes, like for instance, we just played a team, Tampa Bay, where if you watched one-onones or whatever, they’re man-to-man coverage. They don’t necessarily re-route as much as our guys do. The reason why I say that is I’ll never be 100 percent committed to, ‘OK, this guy is only this,’ always leaving the options open fully knowing that he has experience.
Chase Edmonds and Jaylen Waddle, which will boost his passer rating. And the Kyle Shanahan/49ers system that McDaniel is using with the Dolphins tends to boost quarterbacks’ performance.
Consider: Under Shanahan, quarterback Nick Mullens
produced a career average yards per attempt figure of 7.7, the same number that Aaron Rodgers posted last season in winning an MVP award.
Jimmy Garoppolo, playing in that system, has a career YPA of 8.4; last season, only Joe Burrow averaged more than Garoppolo.
Conversely, Tagovailoa has averaged 6.6 yards per attempt in his career.
As Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson noted, only Jared
Goff “has a lower big-time throw rate over that time than Tua’s 2.5%. By any measure, he has not shown he can be a franchise quarterback, but there is a strong argument that his situation was prohibitively bad and there was no chance for him to do so.”
The six interceptions in three practices last week somewhat tainted Tagovailoa’s otherwise strong training camp. And expecting Tagovailoa to become as good as Allen might be wishful thinking.
But as ESPN’s Louis Riddick
predicted, “Tagovailoa is going to have his best NFL season, barring injury, because of the weapons around him and because he’s in the ultimate QB friendly system, which will allow him to make a lot of simple short to intermediate throws with the expectation of a lot of yards after the catch.”
A 22-point season-three jump in passer rating (same as Allen’s) is likely pie in the sky. But a 10-to-15 point jump? That’s We watch tape, too, but we would rather, especially with that particular player, let him earn his keep. I wouldn’t want to say, ‘Hey, you can’t do something.’ We were just going for the best player, inside or outside, available and let the chips fall with that in his hands.”
Ahead of the Dolphins’ home preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders on Saturday, Alexander briefly reflected on the full-circle moment that’s developed for him. He recalled watching Dolphins games “week by week” and many of those games featured defensive backs Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison, who now coach him in the secondary.
“I want to get out and just compete and be the best teammate I can and come out and help my team win as best I can,” Alexander said. “Everybody has a goal they want to do individually but it doesn’t always work out like that. You’ve got to find your system and find your role and play it do what coach tells you to do and enjoy the process.” not unreasonable to expect from Tagovailoa.
CHATTER
Only three of UM’s 17 nonbinding commitments in its top-10 quality 2023 class — and none of the top six — are players who attend high school in South Florida. What’s most impressive, but not surprising, about the early stages of the Mario Cristobal era has been his success recruiting the West and other regions.
But Cristobal wants it clear that South Florida remains a priority.
“If you don’t have a South Florida base at the University of Miami, you’re on borrowed time,” defensive backs coach
Jahmile Addae said. “That’s not an elephant in the room. We talk about that. Are there elite players in the country you can supplement your roster with? Yes. But I’ll be darned if you leave home without making sure you get what’s here before looking elsewhere. And we’ve done that as a staff.”
UM has lost out on too many top players from Plantation American Heritage over the past six years, from Patrick Surtain II and Tyson Campbell to
Marvin Jones Jr., Earl Little Jr., Andrew Chatfield and
Jacolby Spells. Alabama and Georgia — even West Virginia — have beaten out Miami for some of these players.
Addae, who coached at Georgia last year, puts it this way: “That is a school you have to win, have to dominate. There are five or six you say within this radius, we have to own this school and if we do it will help our program tremendously.
That school happens to be one of them. We are almost living in that place to make that happen. You got to keep the others out
Abecause everyone is in there.”
Heat legend Dwyane Wade said on JJ Redick’s podcast recently that he believes the hatred toward the LeBron James/Wade/Chris Bosh Big 3 era Heat (2010-2013) was racially motivated.
“We knew that some of the hate was because of our skin color,” Wade said. “Because of being Black men and deciding to control the fate of our careers. … So, when we had the power, when we had the moment, we took it. But some of the hate came because we were three Black guys who decided and changed the way that the NBA probably would ever be because of that decision.”
While the Lakers (33-49 last season) have five of ABC’s 18 scheduled NBA games this season, the Heat’s only ABC game is a Saturday, Jan. 14 1 p.m. game against Milwaukee, on the same afternoon the NFL playoffs begin. Networks believe the Heat lacks the star power of the 76ers, Celtics, Lakers, Bucks and others.
Not only did Jesus Sanchez earn his demotion with his inability to get on base, but we hear he showed up just a few minutes before one Marlins game a few weeks before he was sent to Triple A. …
Marlins hitting prospects continue to struggle, with Griffin Conine — Jeff’s son — the latest. After a strong start at Double A Pensacola, he’s 19 for 115 (.165) with 49 strikeouts
(and six homers) since June 1. He’s at .232, 19 homers, 62 RBI in 95 games. If none of these Marlins hitting prospects can make consistent contact, this rebuild job becomes that much worrisome.
AAABarry Jackson: 305-376-3491, @flasportsbuzz