Many reasons why Marlins’ rebuild has failed in Year 5
The new owner’s plan seemed reasonable for a team with modest revenue and poor attendance: Trade the highest-priced players from a 78-win team and snag a bunch of highly regarded, cheap prospects to form the nucleus of a roster that would eventually return the Marlins to relevance.
So how did the franchise’s latest rebuild — now in Year 5 under principal owner Bruce Sherman — go so horribly wrong?
Poor decisions in free agency are a big part of it.
But one reason stands above all else: An inability to identify and develop big-league hitters, which has neutralized the Marlins’ impressive work in acquiring gifted young pitchers.
The Marlins ultimately couldn’t replace the quality of most any of the bats they traded when the rebuild began —
Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and
JT Realmuto — or one they acquired and then traded last year, Starling Marte.
“Our offense needs to be better,” Sherman said last week. “We will be reviewing our processes for developing our position players in the minors.”
A Miami Herald analysis revealed this startling statistic: Of the 33 position players ranked among MLB.com’s top 30 Marlins prospects from 2018 through 2020 (the first three years of Sherman’s ownership), only one — second baseman
Jazz Chisholm Jr. — so far has developed into an above-average hitter, while one other —
Brian Anderson — has become a slightly below average hitter after a promising start to his career.
Of the 31 others, many have been unable to hit big-league pitching (in varying sample sizes), and many have had modest offensive production in the minors.
Of those 31, it’s too soon to judge perhaps a dozen of them. But of those dozen, fewer than half seem to have a realistic chance of becoming productive big-league starters.
And the others? It’s a wasteland of busts and unfulfilled promise.
“It’s been disappointing and it has definitely hurt the rebuild,” manager Don Mattingly told The Miami Herald last week, when asked if he’s surprised that so few of the team’s hitting prospects have developed.
“For clubs like us, you have to be able to produce some guys to really be successful. That was the whole model when the group [Sherman and sincedeparted Derek Jeter] came in, is to be sustainable, and that means bringing guys up through the system. That’s probably been the most disappointing part of not being able to piece this thing together.”
In our analysis, we didn’t include players who were listed for the first time on mlb.com’s 2021 and 2022 Marlins prospect lists, because most are very early in their pro careers.
A look at the 33 position prospects and how it all went so wrong, with an asterisk by the names of players who are no longer with the Marlins organization:
WORKED OUT
Chisholm: Was hitting .254 with 14 homers and 45 RBI and 12 steals in 60 games before a season-ending back injury. But the Marlins didn’t necessarily win that trade; Zac Gallen, dealt to Arizona, has a 2.50 ERA in 27 starts for the Diamondbacks.
Anderson: Has hit .258 with 55 homers in 507 games, but has struggled to stay healthy and is hitting .230 this season.
AATHE BUSTS OR DIDN’T WORK OUT
*Lewis Brinson: Hit .203 in 1,056 plate appearances for the Marlins and is now trying to salvage his career with the Ginot
Aants. Between Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz and Jordan Yamamoto, it’s difficult to envision a worse return than what the Marlins received from the Brewers for All-Star outfielder Yelich.
*Harrison: Once considered a five-tool prospect, Harrison had only 76 plate appearances as a Marlin, with 12 hits and 37 strikeouts (.176) before Miami dropped him from the 40-man roster. He’s 2 for 11 with the Angels this season.
*Diaz: He raised hopes by hitting .305 with 26 homers in Triple A in 2018, but then hit .185 in 145 games as a Marlin and was designated for assignment. It didn’t help that he left the team during the COVIDshortened season. The Marlins thought he should have played with more intensity.
He hit .275 with 23 homers for the Giants’ Triple A team this year.
While the four prospects acquired for Yelich fizzled, Yelich won the 2018 MVP and has hit .286 with 113 homers and 332 RBI in five seasons with Milwaukee.
“Those [four] guys might end up being good one day,” Mattingly said. “But you hate to let a guy like Yelich get away and
AApull something out of that trade.”
*Connor Scott: Jeter’s initial first-round draft pick — and the last pick made by previous farm director Stan Meek — was traded to Pittsburgh in the Jacob Stallings deal and has been mediocre in Double A with the Pirates (.249, 45 RBI in 105 games this season). One Marlins official mistakenly thought he could become another Yelich.
*Tristan Pompey: The Marlins’ third-round pick in 2018 hit .195 in the minors last year was released in June, two months after MLB suspended him 50 games for a second positive drug test. He now plays in Canada.
Thomas Jones: A thirdround pick in 2016, Jones hit just .177 with eight homers and 22 RBI in 59 games at Double A Pensacola this season.
*Riley Mahan: The Marlins’ 2017 third-rounder was released by the organization after hitting just .204 in Double A last season.
*Brayan Hernandez:A multi-tool prospect —whom the Marlins talked up after he was acquired in the Pablo Lopez deal with Seattle — was released in 2020 after hitting .179 in the low level minors. He’s now
AAAAAplaying in Mexico.
*Braxton Lee: Acquired from Tampa for Adeiny Hechavarria, he made the Opening Day roster in 2018, went 3 for 17 and was designated for assignment after that season.
*Magneuris Sierra: He hit .230 in 211 games for the Marlins over four seasons before being jettisoned. He’s batting .185 in 40 games for the Angels this season.
But the Marlins got top pitchers Sandy Alcantara and Gallen in that Ozuna deal.
“I wish we wouldn’t have had to bring him up so early,” Mattingly said. “He was overmatched.”
*Outfielder Isael Soto: Hit .221 in five minor-league seasons before the Marlins dumped him after 2019.
AAANOT LOOKING GOOD
Osiris Johnson: The Marlins’ second-round pick in 2018 is a .233 hitter in three minorleague seasons and .238 with 29 RBI in 85 games at three levels this season.
*James Nelson: The third baseman/corner outfielder — a 16th-round Marlins pick who was traded in 2020 to the Yankees for reliever Stephen Tarpley — is hitting .214 in the Yankees system.
Chris Torres: The infielder — acquired in the Dee Gordon/ Nick Neidert trade with Seattle — has appeared in only four games over the past two seasons — and none this season — because of injuries. He’s a .243 career minor-league hitter.
*Joe Dunand: The Marlins’ second-rounder in 2017 — best known as Alex Rodriguez’s nephew — struggled in the minors (.234 career average) before hitting a home run in his MLB debut for the Marlins in May, when he was called up as a COVID replacement. He went 3 for 10 in three games, but the Marlins designated him for assignment less than a month later. The Braves signed him and also designated him.
*Austin Dean: He hit .217 in 98 games for the Marlins in 2018 and 2019 before being traded to St. Louis for Diowill Burgos. He’s now with the Giants.
Victor Victor Mesa: Has been an immense disappointment since agreeing to a deal with the Marlins in 2018, including a $5 million signing bonus. He’s a .234 hitter with seven homers in 273 minorleague games. Now 25, he hit .195 in 28 games in Triple A this season.
Bryson Brigham: The Mariners’ former third-round pick (acquired by the Marlins in 2018 for Cameron Maybin) has hit .251 with 29 RBI in Triple A Jacksonville this season. He’s 27 and a fringe prospect, if that.
Griffin Conine: Jeff’s son can hit for power (24 homers, 72 RBI in 114 games at Double A this season) but is hitting .218 with 176 strikeouts in 480 plate appearances.
Jose Devers: The skinny middle infielder, who went 10 for 46 in a promising Marlins stint early last season, missed much of 2021 after shoulder surgery, hit just .209 in 60
AAAAAAAAAgames in the minors this season and is now out because of a wrist injury.
STILL MUST PLAY OUT
JJ Bleday: The former firstround pick hit just .177 in his first 172 big-league plate appearances this season. Mattingly praised his plate discipline but said he fouls back hittable pitches and must shorten his swing. The Marlins hope he can be a platoon outfielder; he does not project as a full-time center fielder in their eyes.
Jesus Sanchez: Looked like a long-term starter after hitting .251, 14 homers, 36 RBI in 64 games with the Marlins last season. But he hit just .205 in 93 games with the Marlins this year, was demoted, and is hitting .231 in 28 games in Jacksonville. Other teams figured out holes in his swing.
Lewin Diaz: Skilled defensively, Diaz is batting .177 in 271 major-league at-bats, including .155 in 110 this season. The Marlins are no longer counting on him as their everyday first baseman of the future.
“His swing is pretty efficient, but it has been inconsistent getting his body in the right position,” Mattingly said.
Peyton Burdick: Struggled in a Marlins cameo this season (.171 in 92 plate appearances). He has an open stance, and pitchers have exposed him with sliders and balls outside of the strike zone.
Jerar Encarnacion: Has hit .182 in 66 at bats for the Marlins, including a grand slam in his debut. Has been productive in 415 minor-league games (.263, 57 homers). But the Marlins have concerns about his plate discipline and defense.
Will Banfield: A defensively gifted catcher and a secondround pick in 2018, Banfield has a .208 average in four minorleague seasons. But he hit .286 in his first 28 games at Double A Pensacola this season.
Brian Miller: The 36th overall pick in the 2017 draft is hitting .288 with 39 RBI in Jacksonville and will be a free agent this winter.
*Kameron Misner: Drafted 35th overall in 2019, Misner was traded to Tampa Bay for Joey Wendle last November and is hitting .248 with 62 RBI in Double A in the Rays’ system.
Jose Salas: It’s too soon to judge the 19-year-old infielder, who can play second, third and short. He’s hitting .230 and 17 RBI in 48 games at High A Beloit.
Nasim Nunez: Also too soon to judge the defensively skilled Nunez, the 2019 secondround pick who’s hitting .250 with 14 RBI and 19 steals in 23 attempts in 34 games at AA Pensacola. The Marlins see him as a potential top of the order hitter.
Victor Mesa Jr.: A better prospect than his brother, the 20-year-old outfielder hit .244 with five homers and 50 RBI in 121 games at High A Beloit.
Ynmanol Marinez: The 21-year-old multi-position infielder hit .259, 10 homers, 56 RBI in 114 games at High A Beloit.
AAAAAAAAAAAAMORE BAD DECISIONS
The Marlins also prematurely purged several young hitters who became productive elsewhere.
Outfielder Stone Garrett, the Marlins’ eighth-round pick in 2014, was cut by Miami in 2020 after hitting .250 in six minorleague seasons. He began working in real estate before he connected with a former Marlins scout on LinkedIn, who helped him land a minor-league contract with Arizona. His production skyrocketed this season; he’s hitting .381 with three homers in 48 at-bats for the Diamondbacks.
Outfielder Harold Ramirez was designated for assignment late in 2020, after hitting .274 in two seasons for Miami. This season, he’s hitting .318 (better by far than any Marlin) with five homers and 53 RBI in 101 games for Tampa.
First baseman Josh Naylor, dealt to San Diego six years ago in a package for Andrew Cashner, is hitting .262 with 17 homers and 66 RBI in 104 games for Cleveland. The Marlins, meanwhile, still search for a young first baseman who can hit.