Tropical Storm Ian nears Cuba as Category 3; track shift has South Florida at edge of cone

Tropical Storm Ian continued to strengthen in the eastern Caribbean on Saturday — on its way to becoming what is expected to be a powerful Category 3 hurricane as it nears Cuba, then threatens Florida early next week.

Much of Florida remained in the cone as of the 5 p.m. forecast from the National Hurricane Center. But forecasters nudged the track west throughout the day, taking much of the South Florida out of the cone of concern — meaning a swath from roughly Naples to Fort Pierce, at least for the moment, was less likely to take a serious strike but could still heavy rain and tropical storm force winds.

Forecasters also cautioned that the track after 72 hours remained highly uncertain and a jog back to the east would also shift the cone along with it — along with wind from a storm expected to fuel up fast in hot western Caribbean waters.

Jamie Rhone, acting director of the NHC, warned Floridians not to get fixated on the little changes in the track, which could just as easily move right back.

“You may think because you’re out of the cone, you’re out of the woods, and that’s not correct,” he said in a morning broadcast before the updated 5 p.m. cone was released. “You here in the South Florida peninsula have to maintain your guard.”

The 5 p.m. track called for a landfall sometime Wednesday north of Cedar Key, along Florida’s sparely populated Big Bend. That reflected the third hop west in the track in a row.

No matter where Ian heads, heavy winds and rain could be felt across the state throughout the week. On Saturday afternoon, Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded his state of emergency declaration to the entire state, as the still-uncertain projected landfall track continues to wiggle east and west.

The hurricane center, and officials in MiamiDade and Monroe counties, urged residents to finish hurricane preparations by Monday evening. Emergency managers in the Florida Keys delayed a decision on whether to call for evacuations, planning to wait until Sunday morning amid the deep uncertainty around the storm’s Florida track.

THE LATEST ON IAN

Ian’s maximum sustained winds held steady most of Saturday at 45 mph, as of the 5 p.m. update. It was about 255 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, which canceled its tropical storm watch, and about 445 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, which was under a hurricane warning. It was zipping along west-southwest at 16 mph, a slightly faster pace than earlier in the day.

Forecasters said the wind shear leftover from Hurricane Fiona and other unfavorable conditions was expected to melt away on Saturday and Sunday, allowing Ian to strengthen further.

On Sunday, Ian is projected to hit a patch of superheated ocean water that powers it into a hurricane. The NHC said it could even rapidly intensify, which is when a storm gains at least 30 mph of sustained winds in a 24hour period.

It’s currently projected to approach Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, and continue to power up into a Category 4 with 130 mph winds in the warm waters of the Gulf. However, the latest guidance suggested Ian could weaken back down to a Category 2 before making landfall in Florida.

WHERE IN FLORIDA?

Ian’s approach to Florida’s

west coast early next week is still unclear, despite a trend west most of the day Saturday that moved Southeast Florida even more out of the cone.

The hurricane center said Saturday that the spread of potential paths spit out by computer models covered a range of nearly 180 miles and the track could continue to shift over Sunday and Monday.

“There is significant spread noted even among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida.,” the 5 p.m. discussion read. “Further adjustments to the track forecast may be needed given the increased uncertainty in the day 3-5 period.”

That’s partially due to how disorganized Ian remains, even after strengthening to tropical storm status. Models have a hard time predicting future paths without a clearly defined center, and Ian’s is still taking shape.

Michael Lowry, WPLG’s meteorologist, wrote in his newsletter that the storm’s center on Saturday morning was a little south of where previous models expected it to be, which could have consequences for a Florida landfall later next week.

“While we anticipated a brief turn westward, the southwesterly jog may indicate a competition ongoing between Ian’s mid-level center being blown southwestward by persistent wind shear and its formative low-level circulation chasing it,” he wrote. “The uneven distribution of thunderstorm activity south of the center could work to tug the system farther south and west in the short term.”

One important factor in where exactly the storm goes is the ridge of air over the Northeast U.S. Models differ on when exactly it will begin to push south, and where it will steer Ian depends on when the storm interacts with that low pressure.

To help gather more information about that ridge, the National

Weather Service in Aberdeen, South Dakota tweeted that dozens of NWS offices across the US are launching extra weather balloons, starting Saturday.

“Small changes in the track can make a BIG difference in impacts across South Florida,” the Miami

NWS office warned.

WIND AND RAIN PREDICTIONS

South Florida and the Keys could see heavy rains beginning as early as Monday, along with some flooding. Current projections call for about 4 to 6 inches of rain across the Florida peninsula, according to the NWS Miami office Saturday morning outlook.

The NHC predicts that Jamaica and the Cayman Islands could see four to eight inches of rain, while western to central Cuba is expecting more like six to 10 inches.

NHC was also monitoring three other systems, plus a tropical wave in the central Atlantic with a low chance of formation this week. By Saturday evening, Tropical Storm Hermine was downgraded to a depression and Tropical

Storm Gaston pulled away from the Azores Saturday. Post-tropical Cyclone Fiona lashed Nova Scotia and Newfoundland with recordbreaking winds and was expected to dissipate early next week as it approached Greenland.

Alex Harris: 305-376-5005, @harrisalexc