Dolphins need better play in many areas to beat Bills
On Sunday, we get answers to one of the most important questions of this Dolphins season: Are they near the elite level of the Buffalo Bills, the standard by which every AFC East team should be judged?
An ocean separated the teams the past four years; not only have the Bills beaten Miami seven times in a row and nine of their past 10 meetings, but the scores usually haven’t been particularly close.
The Bills won by margins of 10 and 17 points in 2019; by 3 and 30 points in the 2020 season (with that season-ending 56-26 drubbing costing Miami a playoff spot) and by 35 and 15 last season.
Both 2-0 teams have looked good, but so much needs to change for Miami to be more competitive with Buffalo.
Here are seven of them:
Tua Tagovailoa’s play against Buffalo: His 59.8 passer rating versus the Bills is his second worst against any opponent, ahead of only Tennessee. That includes one touchdown and four interceptions.
He’s 0-3 against Buffalo but lasted only a quarter in one of those games (the 35-0 Bills shellacking last September) before a sack injured his ribs and knocked him out.
The good news: Not only has Tagovailoa improved, but he also has a far better supporting cast than any of his previous three games against Buffalo. And the Bills have a depleted secondary that’s missing three starters and is starting two rookie cornerbacks.
Xavien Howard, the Dolphins’ best player on defense, must be better: In his past four games against Buffalo, he has
AApermitted 19 of 26 passes in his coverage area to be caught for 262 yards and a 111.5 passer rating. He has yielded three TDs but also two interceptions in those games.
And he’s coming off a poor game in Baltimore where he allowed five receptions for 119 yards and a TD. Plus, he’s nursing a groin injury.
Speaking of … The Dolphins can’t allow Stefon Diggs to torch them. He’s too good to be limited to a couple catches. But he can’t erupt like he has against Miami historically.
Diggs, in his past four games against Miami, has 22 catches for 315 yards; 145 of those yards (and two TDs) came against
Noah Igbinoghene, who doesn’t have a defensive snap this season. Howard often shadowed him last season. He had three catches of 15 yards or more in his two games in Miami as a Bill.
Nik Needham: He’s been a poor cornerback against the Bills, a good one against most everyone else.
Kader Kohou replaced Needham to start the second half against Baltimore, and the question now is whether the Dolphins play Needham at all against the Bills, knowing the history there and knowing that Kohou has thrived as an undrafted rookie.
In 2020, Needham had a 78.5 passer rating against him in games against teams other than the Bills. Against Buffalo in 2020, he allowed a perfect passer rating of 158.3 — eight completions in nine targets for 166 yards and 3 TDs, with Isaiah McKenzie, Cole Beasley and Diggs administering some of that punishment.
So the Dolphins mostly sat him in the first Buffalo game last year (a 35-0 Bills win), then played him in the 26-11 Halloween loss, when Needham was again roasted, allowing 7 of 8 passes to be caught for 94 yards (a 115.6 passer rating). No Dolphins player has a bigger disparity in performance against Buffalo compared with everybody else.
AAThe pass rush: The Bills are second in the league with nine sacks this season. The Dolphins have only two.
And there’s this: The Dolphins have just three sacks in the past four games against the Bills, compared with 11 for Buffalo in those games — including two by Greg Rousseau and two by Mario Addison.
The Dolphins had just one sack in the two Bills games last season (split between Emmanuel Ogbah and Andrew Van Ginkel, who has played only seven defensive snaps this season). In 2020, the Dolphins had only two sacks in the two games: 1 1⁄2 by Van Ginkel and a half for Ogbah.
Even though Miami was fifth with 48 sacks last season, the poor pass rush against Buffalo wasn’t forgotten; the Dolphins subsequently signed Melvin Ingram and Trey Flowers. But Van Ginkel needs to play on Sunday.
And this was exasperating: The Dolphins hit Allen 11 times and pressured him 25 times in the two losses last season yet managed just that one sack.
Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer made a subtle change between the two meetings last season, one that bears keeping in mind on Sunday: In the first game, the 35-0 loss, Boyer blitzed safeties Jevon Holland
Aand Brandon Jones just eight combined times, and they didn’t have a quarterback pressure.
In the second meeting, he blitzed them a combined 26 times — including 18 by Jones — and they combined for four pressures.
The offensive line: This was a disaster against the Bills, something Miami hopes has been fixed by offseason changes. The Dolphins allowed an astounding 52 quarterback pressures and eight sacks in the two games; Tagovailoa was knocked out of the first game early when an AJ Epenesa hit injured Tua’s hip, then was hit four more times in the second game.
Austin Jackson (nine) and
Liam Eichenberg (four) permitted a combined 13 pressures in that game last September — an unfathomable number. Jackson is out Sunday and Eichenberg has moved to guard.
Incidentally, Terron Armstead (who’s questionable with a toe injury) allowed two pressures but no sacks in the Bills’ trouncing of the Saints last season. The good news: The line was very good against Baltimore.
Josh Allen: For his career, he’s 7-1 with a 106.8 passer rating against Miami, with 21 touchdowns and five interceptions. What’s more, he has 430
AAyards rushing (by far his most against any team) on 8.96 per carry, his highest rushing average against the 12 teams that he has played against more than once.
The Dolphins have played him well only once in the past four meetings, holding him to a 75 passer rating in the game last September. And Buffalo still won 35-0.
Here’s the good news, beyond the Dolphins now having Tyreek Hill:
Bills Pro Bowl cornerback
Tre’Davious White is out with an injury; he allowed just three catches on Tagovailoa’s past 11 throws against him. Cornerback
Dane Jackson and secondteam All-Pro safety Micah Hyde also are out, and All-Pro safety Jordan Poyer has a foot injury. And Dolphins-torching receivers Beasley and John Brown aren’t Bills any more.
The Dolphins will need to contend with other dangerous receivers besides Diggs: Gabe Davis (off an ankle injury; had four catches, 88 yards against the Rams in the opener) and McKenzie, the former Plantation American Heritage standout who has two of his eight career receiving TDs against Miami.
ESPN’s Domonique Foxworth, the former NFL cornerback, said the Dolphins now “have a really good chance because Mike McDaniel isa run-game genius. They have an improved offensive line. The weakness of the Bills defense, if there is a weakness, is they’re weak at the corner spot. They have young guys out there who don’t have much experience.
“If Mike McDaniel is able to figure out a way to run effectively, it draws one safety in the box; boy, are you in trouble if you have two young corners trying to run with Jaylen Waddle and Hill. It could get ugly fast. If you double both of them, you have Mike Gesicki up the middle.”
Barry Jackson: 305-376-3491, @flasportsbuzz