Trying to solve the mystery of Tua’s place in history
The evidence, at the time, seemed compelling enough. Here was the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa winning every game that he both started and either finished or left with a big lead this season — eight of them — while completing 68 percent of his passes, leading the league in passer rating and playing better than any other NFL quarterback in the fourth quarter. His team was 8-3.
By any measure, Tagovailoa had met every standard to be considered a franchise quarterback.
And then everything fell apart. First, the rough patch — a handful of errant throws against the 49ers, 10 for 28 accuracy against the Chargers, then a return to TAHB (Tua At His
Best, against Buffalo) and then three fourth-quarter interceptions against Green Bay, after what was later diagnosed as a second-quarter concussion that sidelined him against the Patriots last Sunday and will keep him from playing in Sunday’s critical finale against the Jets.
And accompanying the sudden concerns about his play was the issue that has dogged Tagovailoa since his days at Alabama — the questions of durability and availability.
So we arrived near the end of Season Three of Tua with doubt again creeping in — doubt about whether he can be a 10-year solution at the position and doubt about whether his health will even permit that.
Even if the Dolphins make the playoffs — they need to beat the Jets and hope the Bills beat the Patriots — it’s uncertain if he will be cleared for the postseason opener. Doctors haven’t yet authorized any on-field work for Tagovailoa, among the final stages of concussion protocol.
At the very least, we know this: Tagovailoa is a clearly aboveaverage NFL quarterback, something that was hardly clear before this season.
What we still don’t know is this: Was the fabulous eightgame stretch to begin the season representative of what he will be long-term? Was the 0-4 stretch — with three subpar games and one good game — more reflective of who he is? Or is it somewhere in the middle?
And just as importantly, can he be counted on for more than a dozen or so games a season? He will end this season with 13 games, but realistically, only
12 1⁄2.
If you look to NFL quarterback history for an indication of future performance, the exercise won’t produce any clarity.
Tagovailoa finished this season with a 105.5 passer rating, which leads the league. Entering Sunday’s final games, he’s one of seven quarterbacks to top the 100 mark, along with Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Jimmy Garoppolo, Geno Smith, Joe Burrow and Jared Goff.
I looked back at every quarterback over the past 18 years who produced passer ratings of at least 100.
There were 35 of them from 2004 through 2021. Thirteen of them had multiple seasons with ratings over 100 during that period, led by Drew Brees (10), Aaron Rodgers (nine) and Tom Brady (eight).
But here’s why no definitive conclusions can be drawn from a single season topping the magical 100 rating mark:
Of those 35 quarterbacks, 21 qualified as players that most people would call a franchise quarterback. Some (Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Peyton Manning)
were on different tiers than others, such as Matt Stafford
and four-time Pro Bowler Michael Vick. The number is 22 if you include four-time Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins, who has topped the 100 mark on four occasions and whose career stats far exceed how he’s perceived.
But there are also 13 players who topped the 100 passer rating mark for a season who wouldn’t be considered the quintessential “franchise quarterbacks.” Derek Carr was considered one at one point, but not now; the Raiders plan to trade him.
The others? David Garrard, Robert Griffin III (had one great season before his career began to unravel), Nick Foles, Josh McCown, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, Carson Wentz
(twice), Goff (twice), Ryan Tannehill (twice), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyler Murray and Garoppolo (this year will be his second over 100).
The point is not to suggest that Tagovailoa won’t be a franchise quarterback; this season suggested that he absolutely can be one, if the September/October/November success can be repeated and if he can somehow stay healthy.
The point is that one season of excellence isn’t enough to prove anything.
Garrard, a decent starter for Jacksonville with a career 85.8 rating, had one year with 18 touchdowns, three picks and a 102.2 rating. McCown, a career journeyman, had a year with 13 touchdowns, one pick and a 109 rating.
Alex Smith’s one great year, in 2017, was pretty similar to Tagovailoa’s: 26 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 104.7 rating. He had an 85 passer rating during the rest of his career.
The passer rating formula hasn’t changed, but more quarterbacks are reaching that tripledigit number.
Between 2018 and 2021, there were 36 quarterbacks who topped 100 in passer rating — one more than the number of quarterbacks who did it over a 10-year stretch from 2004 to 2013.
Should the Dolphins be encouraged? Absolutely. They’ve found, at the very least, a good NFL starter, one who — at his best — looks like a top-10 quarterback.
But they’ll need to see a larger body of work — and hope for more durability — to say anything definitive beyond that.
One critical step could be wearing a helmet with more padding, like Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett does. Tagovailoa didn’t do that when he returned from the Bengals concussion, but he and the team will give that strong consideration when Tagovailoa returns.
What happened with Tagovailoa over the final month of the season, according to ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, was sometimes the byproduct of incorrectly assuming that defenders would do what he expected.
“Tua has got to get back to predetermining [what he wants to do] but not assuming [defenders are] going to move,” Orlovsky said. “Tua catches that snap and immediately where he looks, teams are slowly starting to not go where that initial look is and saying, ‘If you are looking over there, we dare you to throw it over there because we know you’re not going to.’ ”
ESPN’s Rex Ryan, the former Jets coach and ex-NFL defensive coordinator, was harsher: “Finally, I think people realize this is a one-read quarterback. And what I mean by that is when things are in rhythm, he knows exactly where he’s going whether it’s through coaching or whatever it is…
“As soon as you change the math on him — in other words, your defensive pieces aren’t where you thought they were going to be — that’s where he struggles. That’s why you saw the three interceptions [against the Packers].
“Some people are starting to figure it out. You lay traps out there and that’s exactly what Green Bay did. This is what happens against a one-read quarterback, and that’s what’s dangerous about having [one]. This guy has ability. He’s accurate. But as soon as somebody is not where he’s supposed to be, that’s a problem with him because he’s struggling to improvise.”
But how much of the three interceptions against Green Bay can be attributed to the fact he was playing with a concussion and couldn’t remember some things when quizzed by coach Mike McDaniel the next day? All are unknowns.
Moving on from Tagovailoa after this season because of concerns about concussions isn’t realistic; Garoppolo, an impending free agent, also has had durability issues and isn’t clearly better than Tagovailoa. And the Dolphins have no cap space, lessening any chance of them pursuing Garoppolo or Brady in free agency or Carr in a trade.
So the Dolphins/Tagovailoa marriage likely will continue, with worrisome uncertainty about whether he can stay healthy. The baseline has been set: Good NFL starter. Whether he can exceed that, over a sustained period, remains the mystery.
Barry Jackson: 305-376-3491, @flasportsbuzz