How Heat got here, and lessons to be learned
kept him available in trade talks, perhaps he could have opened opportunities for a significant move now. Herro deserved the extension, but cap rules made it essentially impossible to deal Herro once he signed the extension, even if Miami had wanted to. Those restrictions are lifted in July.
If Max Strus hadn’t dropped from 41.0 percent on threes to 34.4 this season, perhaps he could have been an appealing carrot to attach to another contract (Dewayne Dedmon) and a first-rounder for a skilled power forward with size and three-point range.
But when all of your tradeable assets stagnate or regress, your assets all become distressed assets — or essentially no assets at all.
According to a team in touch with the Heat, teams wanted two first-round picks to consider taking Robinson’s contract and a first-rounder to consider absorbing Lowry’s. Ultimately, the Clippers found better value with deals for Hyland and Gordon.
No star player has forced his way to the Heat.
Kevin Durant this week informed the Nets that he wanted to be dealt to Phoenix, and the Nets — eager to please him — negotiated only with the
Suns, per ESPN’s Brian Windhorst.
Even with his friendship with
Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell never asked the Jazz to trade him to Miami.
Even though Washington’s
Bradley Beal has expressed admiration for the Heat — telling me at one point that they’re “by far one of the best-run [teams] in the league” — he never asked for a trade to Miami or anywhere.
Portland’s Damian Lillard hasn’t asked for a trade and was deemed off-limits this week.
The three-point mystery. Nobody could have expected Miami to plunge from first in the league in three-point shooting (37.9 last season) to 27th at 33.6.
If Miami shot threes at last year’s rate, it would be top six in the league in offensive rating instead of 26th. And instead of 31-25, Miami might be 35-21 and neck-and-neck with Cleveland for a top-four seed.
Lack of sweet-spot contracts to dangle in trade talks.
Once Dedmon and his $4.7 million salary were dealt to the Spurs — who needed to take on money to reach the salary cap floor — it became impossible for Miami to trade for any players earning in the $9 million to $11 million range (such as Kelly Olynyk) without including Martin.
Other than Lowry and Robinson and Martin, Miami had no available player earning more than $3 million except Victor Oladipo, who could veto any trade this season. That essentially tied the Heat’s hands.
AAA— who’s averaging 9.4 points and 2.6 assists — is helping on both ends. He’s holding the player he’s guarding to 41.5 percent shooting, compared to the 45.2 percent those players shoot overall.
The Heat is 13-8 when Vincent plays in clutch time, defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of games with a margin of five or fewer.
THIS AND THAT
Butler continues to spend nearly half the fourth quarter on the bench before returning for the game’s final minutes. He entered Friday’s game with 6:05 left in the fourth and Houston up four, then scored 10 points in the final 2:31.
Does the extended rest to start the fourth help him?
“Not really,” he said. “I
AThe Heat lacked the assets to make a competitive offer for
Kyrie Irving, and there were vastly different opinions among the Heat’s key people about how aggressively to pursue him, according to a league source. Miami ultimately didn’t make available its best assets.
As for lessons to be learned from the past year, here are seven of them:
There’s always a risk with point guards who reach their mid-30s, no matter how decorated their careers. And that’s something the Heat needs to be mindful of moving forward.
At the time, I can’t remember any significant questioning of the Heat’s decision to give Lowry three years and $85 million.
But there has been a clear drop-off this year with Chris Paul (37), Lowry (36) and Russell Westbrook (34).
All of their shooting percentages have plunged this year — from 49.3 to 43.2 for Paul, and 44 to 39.6 for Lowry. The decline for older point guards can be sudden and dramatic.
Stick with drafting the best Kentucky player available. (And we say this only partly in jest.)
The Heat brilliantly snagged Adebayo and Herro late in the lottery, and in retrospect should have drafted Tyrese Maxey instead of Precious Achiuwa, who was dealt with Goran Dragic in the Lowry trade.
With a mulligan, the Heat would have been better off simply selecting Maxey, who’s averaging 19.7 per game in his third season with Philadelphia, and not pursuing Lowry.
Be careful when you sign players partly to use as salary-cap ballast.
The decision to sign Dedmon to a deal worth $4.7 million in guaranteed money ultimately backfired; instead of aggregating his salary in a trade for a rotation player, Miami needed to relinquish a second-rounder to ship him to the Spurs, giving the Heat needed flexibility un
AAAget to pick and choose when I want to hit the switch. I’ve come to a point in my career when I can do that. Sometimes it’s good, sometimes it’s bad. I know what to do and how to play to make sure we win.”
Butler praised Quinn for coming up with the game-winning play Friday.
“Quinny is smart,” Butler said. “As good a coach as he is, he’s going to be a head coach one day very, very soon.”
Was Butler surprised he was so open on the game-winning dunk?
“I’m always open. I’m like a football player. OchoCinco said it best,” he said of former NFL receiver Chad Johnson. “He was always open.”
AABarry Jackson: 305-376-3491, @flasportsbuzz der the tax threshold to be active in the buyout market in the weeks ahead.
In retrospect, the Heat should have offered Dedmon a minimum deal and found a backup center elsewhere if he declined the offer. That would have allowed Miami to fill its 15th roster spot and remain under the luxury tax threshold, with two players on minimum deals in that scenario. The Heat can now fill all 15 spots and stay under the tax line after dealing Dedmon.
When you sign players with a history of injuries, don’t be surprised when they’re injured.
Lowry missed 17, 24 and 26 games in his final three seasons in Toronto; that he’s out indefinitely now with knee soreness shouldn’t be a surprise.
Jimmy Butler, who has thoroughly validated his contract by leading the Heat on two deep playoff runs, missed 17, 24, 20 and 25 games the previous four seasons and 15 this season. That’s what Miami signed up for, and so far, he has been worth the missed games. Miami is 8-7 without Butler this season, four over .500 with him.
The Heat gave Oladipo two years and $18 million knowing the injury history. He missed 29 of the Heat’s first 55 games this season.
Bottom line: If you sign several players who historically miss considerable time with injuries, expecting healthy seasons isn’t realistic.
Don’t overvalue your own players who have limitations.
The Heat did that with Dion Waiters, James Johnson, Tyler Johnson and Robinson. In each case, there was recency bias and an understandable desire not to lose them in free agency for nothing.
As good a coach as Erik Spoelstra is, a team with so many undrafted players can go only so far.
Five of the eight players who logged minutes in Wednesday’s game against Indiana were
AAAundrafted. The Heat’s developmental system — and eye for identifying undrafted diamonds — is the best in the league, but developmental success stories can get you only so far. Talent — well-coached talent, but talent — ultimately drives success.
Living with undersized power forwards has its limits.
A deep playoff run with 6-5
P.J. Tucker at power forward obviously worked out, because of his supremely unique skill set. So did the NBA Finals run with 6-6 Jae Crowder.
The Trevor Ariza Not so much.
Martin, 6-5, has validated his three-year $20.5 million contract; he’s the Heat’s highestpercentage three-point shooter, and his athleticism and defensive activity are assets.
But the Heat too often has been left at a height deficit on switches — particularly early in the year — and you see the value of a skilled stretch big such as 7-footer Brook Lopez Milwaukee.
For all the frustration of Heat fans, some perspective is needed. The franchise has made deep playoff runs two of the past three seasons; it’s five games above .500 and sixth in the East, better than other teams (the Hawks and Bulls, as examples) who thought they built contending rosters.
Lowry will be easier to move as an expiring contract in July or beyond. This summer, the Heat will have three available firstrounders to trade (two if protections aren’t lifted on the pick due OKC), and Herro can be traded this summer if a disgruntled All-Star surfaces and the Heat chooses to dangle him. Miami will have a $4.7 million trade exception to use until the February 2024 trade deadline.
The Heat has $4.1 million and $4 million exceptions to offer for players who are bought out, with Miami nearly $5 million below the luxury tax threshold. The buyout list reportedly will include Reggie Jackson, Terrence Ross, Will Barton,
Serge Ibaka, John Wall and Westbrook, among others.
With Lowry out indefinitely, the Heat has internally discussed Westbrook and has some interest, according to a source. ESPN reported Heat interest in point guards Westbrook and
Patrick Beverley; neither had received buyouts as of Friday night.
For Heat fans, should there be disappointment and difficult lessons learned? Absolutely.
Is the franchise falling apart? Hardly.
If the Heat exits the playoffs meekly in April and doesn’t make significant improvements this summer, then the anger can be justified.
For now, considering the aforementioned unfortunate circumstances, disappointment — not outrage — seems the more appropriate response.
Aexperiment?
in