Strus, Vincent making their case as free agency nears
H Aeat chatter, heading into Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals on Sunday night: The Heat, over the years, has spent hundreds of millions to re-sign its own players who graduated with honors from its development pipeline.
But for the first time, the Heat’s decisions on its impending free agents — Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and to a far lesser extent, Omer Yurtseven — will carry far greater financial consequences than past decisions to lavish their own with generational wealth.
As Strus and Vincent continue to make significant contributions to this playoff run, their price seemingly rises.
ESPN front-office insider Bobby Marks ,a former Nets executive, said Strus could command $12 million annually and Vincent $8 million to $9 million in free agency this summer. The Heat likely will try to keep both.
But here’s the rub: If Miami keeps this team together and retains the 18th overall draft pick, salaries at Marks’ projections for Strus and Vincent would push its payroll to $200 million. That would result in a tax bill of a staggering $129 million.
That $200 million payroll would be well above both the $161 million projected luxury tax and the $178 million “second apron”; teams surpassing the second apron this offseason cannot use a $7 million exception and face more challenges facilitating trades. But exceeding the “second apron” — a new element of the new labor deal — becomes far more punitive in the summer of 2024.
Using Marks’ estimates, if the Heat signed two players at minimum deals instead of paying a combined $21 million for Strus and Vincent — and stuck with the same roster othermillion), wise — Miami’s tax payment would drop from $129 million to $49 million.
So between the salaries and tax payments for Strus and Vincent (using Marks’ estimates), that would mean paying about $100 million to keep them next season, unless Miami can find teams to take the contracts of Duncan Robinson and/or Kyle Lowry in exchange for players making significantly less. And I wouldn’t put any of this past Heat GM/cap savant Andy Elisburg, who has rescued Miami from financial conundrums before.
The potential problem is more pronounced because of Victor Oladipo’s significant knee injury that essentially assures that he will exercise his $9.7 million player option for that season. If Oladipo had opted out, Miami would have had more financial flexibility.
Here’s what Marks said in a text message: “I think
Max is going to get the $12.2 million non-taxpayer midlevel in free agency. Certainly Miami can bring him back with Bird Rights. Vincent is likely a $8-$9 million player. [Miami also has his Bird Rights.] The new CBA doesn’t have teeth until the 2024 offseason. With the Lowry contract expiring next year, Miami can bring both players back before the harsh rules set it. Of course, they would be a tax team.”
That tax variable that wasn’t a big concern when Miami gave a combined $602 million guaranteed to young players Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Robinson. Of those seven, Johnson and Robinson were undrafted, and Whiteside was drafted by another team (Sacramento).
Robinson’s deal has been the most onerous of those contracts; he is owed $47.3 million guaranteed, and as much as $57.3 million overall, after this season.
There are obviously no regrets internally on the deals for Adebayo (five years, $163 million) and Herro (four years, $130 million). Both likely would have commanded that on the open market.
And while the outlays for Robinson (five years, $90 Whiteside (four years, $98 million) and Johnson (four year, $50 million), proved to be regrettable, Johnson’s and Whiteside’s contracts didn’t ultimately hurt the franchise, and Whiteside’s seemed justified at the time.
And deals for Richardson (four years, $42 million) and Winslow (three-years, $39 million) worked out, because Miami used Richardson’s salary in the Jimmy Butler sign-and-trade with Philadelphia and maximized Winslow’s contract as salary cap ballast in acquiring Jae Crowder
and Andre Iguodala,
moves that helped the
Heat in their run to the 2020 NBA Finals.
So enjoy this run, and appreciate everything that Strus and Vincent have given the Heat, which has exceeded anybody’s reasonable expectations. But the bill comes due in July, and it will be pricey.
I asked TNT’s Kenny Smith and Reggie Miller
how their perception of Butler changed after his remarkable performances in leading the Heat on three long playoff runs during the past four years.
Smith: “My perception is honestly he has been a good player and he’s tough to guard. I never knew how easy he can get his own shot off despite the fact that he doesn’t have the jaw-dropping ball handling or the jaw-dropping athleticism. I’m like, man, ‘This guy still gets his shot off super easy.’ The only other player that does it, and he’s even more athletic than [Butler], is Demar DeRozan. His ability to get where he needs to go
Awithout jaw-dropping ball handling and athleticism, that’s what I’m surprised at.”
Miller: “He is a top-25 player in our game. That’s because of the regular season. But in my opinion, he is top 10 and could be top-five playoff performer. ... There are a lot of guys on All-NBA teams, come playoff time, they don’t play like how Jimmy Butler is playing right now.” Smith interrupted Miller and said it sounds like Miller was describing Miller.
“Jimmy Butler saves a lot for the playoffs,” Miller added. “He understands the big picture. I understood the big picture. Where your money [is made] is during the playoffs. Historically, we don’t see this. He averaged [22.9] in the regular season. He’s up to [31.5] now. Give me those types of players.”
Bam Adebayo’s ability to defend guards has been on display in this series. Jaylen Brown is3 for 10 when guarded by Adebayo. On Friday, Adebayo (22 points, 17 boards, nine assists) became the third player in Heat postseason history with at least 20 points, 15 rebounds and five assists in a playoff game, joining LeBron James (who did it four times) and Shaquille O’Neal.
ACHATTER
The Dolphins’ decision to replace Brandon Shell with Isaiah Wynn as their No. 3 offensive tackle (and challenger to Austin Jackson at right tackle) seemed questionable — after all, Wynn allowed four sacks last season, Shell two despite
Aplaying 243 fewer passing snaps — but Wynn has two advantages: 1)
He’s a better left tackle than Shell if Terron Armstead is injured. 2) He also can play left guard, unlike Shell.
247 Sports said UM’s group of 14 transfer portal additions is the sixth best in the country, placing Miami behind only Colorado, Southern Cal, Auburn, LSU and Oklahoma.
UM signed eight portal players before spring practice and six since then — cornerbacks Jaden Davis (Oklahoma) and Jadais Richard (Vanderbilt); running back Ajay Allen (Nebraska); receivers Shemar Kirk (Reedy Community College) and Tyler Harrell (Alabama, and previously Louisville); and defensive end/tackle Anthony Campbell (Louisiana Monroe). 247 Sports
Aranked new UM guard
Javion Cohen as the eight best transfer in the country, linebacker Francisco Mauigoa 46th and center
Matt Lee 66th. All three players are expected to be Canes starters this fall. The Marlins generally have failed in developing position players who can hit, and there’s not a single one in the minors who’s close to helping the bigleague team. The position prospect that Marlins brass feels very good about is shortstop Khalil Watson, who’s hitting. 250 (.383 on-base) at High A Beloit. It’s too soon to tell on high draft picks Jacob Berry and Joe Mack, who have struggled to hit in the low minors.
ABarry Jackson: 305-376-3491, @flasportsbuzz