Don’t cry for Argentina. Voters seem ready to get rid of disastrous Peronist government
There’s good news from Argentina: The latest polls show that the leftist-populist Peronist government that destroyed the country’s economy in recent years is likely to be soundly defeated in the Oct. 22 presidential elections.
In recent days, shortly before the June 24 deadline for political parties to present their candidates for primary elections to be held in August, an average of five polls published by the Spanish-language edition of Bloomberg shows that the two pro-market opposition coalitions are supported by almost twice as many voters as the ruling party.
The center-right opposition Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change) leads with 30% of the vote. It is followed by outgoing President Alberto Fernandez and his powerful vice president and former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s leftist populist Juntos por la Patria (United for the Fatherland), with 26%.
The opposition rightistlibertarian La Libertad Avanza (Freedom Goes Forward Party), led by Trump-admiring congressman Javier Milei, is in third place with 18% of the vote, and the remaining votes are undecided, the poll average shows.
But it would take almost a miracle for the ruling Peronist coalition to win the October elections, because it is highly unlikely to get the support from undecided voters. With a near world record 114% annual inflation rate, a stagnant economy, rising crime rates and massive corruption charges against top government figures, the Peronist government has an estimated 70% disapproval rate.
Even if the alliance backed by the Peronist government were to qualify for a runoff election in November, its chances of winning would be slim. Anti-Peronist voters most likely would unite behind an opposition candidate in the second-round vote.
In a recent interview, I asked rightist-libertarian candidate Milei whether he would back a Together for Change candidate if that center-right coalition were to run against the Peronist party in November.
Milei said that he expects both his party and Together for Change to win the first two places in the firstround election and go to the runoff vote in November. But he suggested that if his coalition doesn’t make it to the runoff, he most likely would support the center-right Together for Change candidate.
“I don’t have any problem supporting any pro-free-market measures that they put forward,” Milei told me. “In fact, Together for Change has proposed many times promarket laws, and we have always supported them in Congress.”
He added, “Our track record speaks for itself. We have always supported freedom, and have always have been against ideas that hurt Argentines, which are the ideas that come from the left.”
While it’s no secret that Argentina’s opposition has a good chance of winning in October, I have been reluctant to write a column adhering to this school of thought — until now. I wanted wait to see who Vice President Fernandez de Kirchner — the real power behind the throne in the current government — would pick as the ruling coalition’s candidate.
In 2019, she surprised everybody with a master move: Aware of her high disapproval rates, she opted to run for vice president and picked her former chief, Alberto Fernandez, who was perceived as more moderate, as her movement’s presidential candidate. The idea was to capture centrist votes, and it worked — her ticket won.
But that won’t happen this time, because the ruling Peronist coalition’s newly announced presidential candidate — economy minister Sergio Massa — has neither the surprise element in his favor nor a convincing track record to woo undecided voters.
It’s been under Massa’s term as minister of economy that Argentina has reached its current threedigit inflation rate. Whatever Massa promises during his campaign to bring down inflation, critics will respond, “So why didn’t you do that while you were in office?” Massa reportedly is staying in his job until October.
Opposition presidential hopeful Patricia Bullrich tweeted hours after Massa’s appointment, “The arsonist is running for firefighter.”
Fernandez de Kirchner accepted Massa’s nomination late Friday, only hours after she had thrown her support behind one of her unconditional loyalists, Interior Minister Eduardo “Wado” de Pedro. He withdrew his candidacy in favor of Massa to allow the party to rally behind one single candidate.
Massa’s last-minute nomination as the government’s “unity candidate” was a defensive move to secure votes of the Peronist base, but will hardly seduce independent voters.
It is a sign of Peronism’s decline, after years of freespending populist policies that have left the country poorer than ever in recent memory. Its demise should be a cause for celebration in Argentina — and across Latin America.