Heat options limited as NBA trade doors swing open

Heat president Pat Riley can put away his harpoon. All of the circling whales have gone out to sea.

The window to snag an AllNBA player to supplement Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo seems partly, if not entirely, shut, at least for the immediate future.

That’s the reality as the Heat slogs through another injurymarred season while trying to defend its Eastern Conference title.

The glass-half-full view: This team, when healthy, seems deeper than last season’s Eastern Conference champions, rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been a revelation and Kyle Lowry — while often a reluctant scorer — has been, at the very least, efficient, shooting 44.2 percent on threes.

And there still could be opportunities to upgrade at the margins, or perhaps something more significant if Lowry and a draft pick can be parlayed into an above-average starter before the Feb. 8 trade deadline.

NBA trades became easier this past Friday, when about 80 players signed during the summer became trade-eligible. For the Heat, that group includes

Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant Orlando Robinson.

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With Butler’s contract running another two seasons after this one, all Heat transactions during the next two years likely will be viewed through this prism:

1). Is the available player good enough to relinquish Tyler Herro? To this point, Herro has been offered for only Kevin Durant

and Damian Lillard.

Herro said the Heat conveyed to his agent, Jeff Schwartz,

during the summer that if he was going to be dealt, it would be for a top 75 (all time) player. So unless that changes, there aren’t many players that Herro would be dealt for.

2). Will any good — but not great — starters that shake free on the trade market be worth sacrificing any of Miami’s potentially three tradeable first-round picks, assets that would be very valuable if another All-Star asks for a trade?

3). If Lowry can be flipped at the trade deadline for a better player on a multiyear deal, is taking on that player’s salary worth it to Miami, considering the cap/tax consequences and how it might limit the Heat’s ability to re-sign Caleb Martin

and Haywood Highsmith?

Here’s what’s important to know:

Miami is a tax team this year but generally doesn’t like being an every-year tax team, which makes the tax far more onerous.

Also, the Heat seems determined to avoid the second apron, an addition to the new labor agreement that beginning next season will trigger draconian penalties on teams $18 million above the tax line.

The Heat is barely below the second apron this season, but surpassing it in the months ahead won’t trigger any onerous consequences for teams this season.

Presuming Martin opts out of $7.1 million for 2024-25 and Kevin Love opts into $4 million for 2024-25, the Heat would have $142 million on the books next season, with Butler ($48.7 million), Adebayo ($34.8 million), Herro ($29 million), Duncan Robinson ($19.4 million), Jaquez Jr. ($3.7 million), Love and Nikola Jovic ($2.4 million).

That jumps to $148 million if Richardson and Bryant exercise their $3.1 million and $2.8 million player options. And Miami assuredly will exercise the $2.1 million team option on Orlando Robinson. So the Heat essentially would have $150 million on its books in this scenario, about $6 million less if Richardson and Bryant opt out.

The projected salary cap for 2024-25 is $142 million but could be higher. The early projected luxury tax line for 2024-25 is $172.5 million, and for Miami, that’s the key number to remember; it could end up several million dollars higher.

Bottom line: If the Heat wants to avoid a tax in 2024-25, Miami would have six roster spots to fill and about $22 million to $30 million of room under the tax line (depending on opt-out decisions by Richardson and Bryant).

So in assessing any potential Lowry trade opportunities that come up, Miami must decide how to spend that $22 million to $30 million.

Here are the most realistic ways to spend it:

1). Using part of it to re-sign Martin and Highsmith.

2). Using the nontaxpayer midlevel exception of $13 million, or much of it, on an outside free agent and keeping Highsmith or possibly Martin.

3). Using Lowry’s contract, before Feb. 9, to trade for a player with money left on his contract beyond this season.

Some of the better players who could be in play in that third scenario include Utah’s Collin Sexton and San Antonio’s Keldon Johnson. Atlanta’s DeAndre Hunter would be an interesting name if the

Hawks overhaul their team.

So while the idea of flipping Lowry’s expiring contract for something better is appealing in theory, keep this in mind:

If Lowry’s $29.6 million expiring contract is traded, hypothetically, for an $8 million player with an expiring contract and one due $22 million next season, that would make re-signing Martin (and possibly Highsmith) unrealistic this summer if Miami wants to avoid being a tax team again.

In explaining why the Heat might simply allow Lowry’s contract to expire without flipping him for a player with multiple years left on a contract, one NBA agent described it as a “Get Out of Jail” card.

By simply allowing Lowry’s contract to expire, Miami would then be $22 million to $30 million under the tax line and potentially could try to find a decent point guard willing to take the midlevel exception and have enough to re-sign Martin and Highsmith.

By standing pat at the trade deadline, Miami would also hold onto its three tradeable firstround picks in case Donovan Mitchell asks out of Cleveland. The problem there is the Knicks and Nets have more available first-round picks to deal for Mitchell.

CHATTER

The Dolphins probably should have had a veteran center on their practice squad to prepare themselves for a situation like the one that has surfaced now, where they had to bring in a center off the streets (Jonnothan Harrison) to possibly start a game just days later, with Connor Williams out for the year and Liam Eichenberg hobbled.

Harrison kept himself in great shape despite not playing in a game in four years. “The Pounceys

are my mentors and my big brothers,” Harrison said of Mike and Maurkice. “In college, I tried to resemble how they play. That’s kind of all I know, a little nasty, twitchy.”

Already $40 million over

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next season’s projected salary cap, the Dolphins structured right tackle Austin Jackson’s contract extension in a way that his 2024 cap hit is modest before rising dramatically in 2025 and 2026.

Jackson agreed to a three-year, $36 million extension, with $20.7 million guaranteed. Jackson’s 2024 cap hit of $4.077 million is manageable. But his cap number rises to $13.83 million in both 2025 and 2026. His base salaries of $10.88 million in 2025 and $9.88 million in 2026 aren’t guaranteed.

Even with Tyreek Hill limited

A against Tennessee because of his ankle injury, the Dolphins didn’t play Chase Claypool at all on offense on Monday because

Cedrick Wilson Jr. beat him out at practice.

Besides last week’s visits by

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top quarterback targets Cam Ward (Washington State) and

Will Howard (Kansas State), the Hurricanes are hosting several transfer portal players with mutual interest, including Indiana center Zach Carpenter (who would replace NFL-bound Matt Lee), Middle Tennessee State defensive tackle Marly Cook

(10.5 sacks in past 36 games) and Vanderbilt safety Savion Riley

(would replace James Williams).

The Marlins are hiring

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Frankie Piliere as their new director of amateur scout, per sources. He was assistant director of scouting with the Seattle Mariners. Piliere will replace DJ Svihlik, who was let go earlier this offseason.

Barry Jackson: 305-376-3491, @flasportsbuzz