10 things that must change for Dolphins to beat Bills
During the past five years, nobody has given the Dolphins more problems than the Buffalo Bills, who come to town Sunday with a chance to snatch the division title from the Dolphins after Miami led the AFC East by three games in December.
Several Bills have consistently tormented Miami through the years.
Here’s a look at 10 particular Dolphins concerns heading into Sunday (with metrics data provided by Pro Football Focus); at least half of these must change for Miami to have a real shot of exiting with the AFC East title and the No. 2 seed.
Josh Allen’s dominance of A
the Dolphins. He’s 9-2 against Miami, with a ridiculous 31-to-5 touchdown pass-to-interception ratio. His 110.8 career passer rating against Miami is his second best among the 23 teams that he has played more than once (he’s at 123.2 against the Rams).
His past four games against Miami have been sublime: 13 TDs, 2 interceptions, and passing yard totals of 400, 304, 352 and 320.
Those 320 yards came with 21-for-25 accuracy, four touchdowns and a perfect 158.3 rating in Buffalo’s 48-20 shellacking of Miami on Oct. 1.
As a runner, Allen has rushed 70 times against Miami and averaged 8.2 yards per carry — his highest rushing average against any of the 23 teams that he has faced more than once. That includes five TDs rushing.
So, Allen is responsible for 36
TDs and five interceptions against Miami.
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The Bills’ and Allen’s ability to consistently exploit Dolphins inside linebackers in the passing game.
This has been a recurring nightmare, with Buffalo torching Miami by isolating running backs, tight ends and receivers against Dolphins linebackers. Bills players have five TD receptions against Dolphins inside linebackers in four meetings during the past 16 months.
In those four games, the Bills have a 149.6 passer rating (34 for 40, 390 yards, 5 TDs, no interceptions) when targeting Miami’s inside linebackers (David Long Jr., Duke Riley, Jerome Baker and Elandon Roberts, who wasn’t re-signed after last season).
Allen completed all four targets against Long for 90 yards and a TD in the Oct. 1 blowout.
Whether defensive coordinator
A Vic Fangio allows Jalen Ramsey to shadow Stefon Diggs or not, Ramsey must play better against Buffalo.
Ramsey allowed two short touchdown passes (1 yard to Diggs and 4 yards to Lee
Smith) when Allen targeted him in a 2020 game.
In the Rams-Bills NFL opener last season, Allen hit Gabe Davis on a 26-yard TD against Ramsey to open the scoring and then hit Diggs on a 53-yard pass over the top of Ramsey later in the game.
Overall in that 2022 NFL opening game, Ramsey allowed five of six passes thrown by Allen in Ramsey’s coverage area to be caught for 103 yards and two touchdowns. It’s even more critical that Ramsey be at his best on Sunday because…
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Kader Kohou has struggled badly against Buffalo.
The Bills made sure Kohou was on Diggs for much of the Oct. 1 game, and Diggs caught four of five targets for 101 yards and two touchdowns against
Kohou.
Fangio must decide whether to give Kohou another chance, use Ramsey or use Eli Apple,
who allowed 74 yards on four completions (including a TD to Davis) when playing for Cincinnati against Buffalo in a divisional playoff game last January.
In his four career games against the Bills, Kohou has allowed a 136 passer rating in his coverage area — 22 catches in 31 targets for 316 yards, three TDs and no interceptions.
For the first time, Apple played ahead of Kohou last Sunday when Miami used two cornerbacks instead of three (after Xavien Howard exited with a foot injury that’s likely to sideline him Sunday). But Fangio has shown no inclination to replace Kohou with Nik Needham as the nickel corner.
Diggs and Davis haunting
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Miami.
Diggs has seven TDs in 15 career games against Miami, tied for his second-highest total against any team.
He has averaged 13.7 yards on his 46 career catches against Miami, which is fifth highest among the 28 teams that Diggs has faced more than once.
Diggs had 114 receiving yards in the January playoff game against Miami and 120 in the
Oct. 1 Bills rout.
Meanwhile, Davis has averaged an absurd 17.4 yards on 17 catches and four touchdowns against Miami. He has had success, historically, against Ramsey and Apple.
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Tua Tagovailoa struggling against Buffalo.
Though he played well in the December game in Buffalo last year, Tagovailoa is just 1-5 against the Bills with five touchdowns, five interceptions and a 79.6 passer rating.
Against teams that he has faced more than once, Tagovailoa’s passer rating is worse only against Tennessee (70.5).
Backup offensive linemen
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struggling against Bills pass rushers.
Liam Eichenberg must play much better than he did in his NFL debut at center against Buffalo on Oct. 1. Eichenberg yielded two sacks and five pressures in that game and allowed a sack to Buffalo when playing guard last season.
Guard Lester Cotton, who might be needed Sunday, yielded a sack and four pressures in the playoff game last January in Buffalo.
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Dolphins’ inability to handle Greg Rousseau.
The former Miami Hurricanes standout has 3.5 sacks against the Dolphins in four games, including two in the Oct. 1 matchup. Miami has yielded four sacks in each of its past two games against Buffalo.
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Doing a better job against the Bills’ safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, each of whom has made a Pro Bowl.
Poyer has three interceptions and eight passes defended against Miami.
Hyde has two interceptions, a TD and a fumble recovery against the Dolphins.
Playing better offensively A
in prime-time games.
In night games under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins scored 15 points in Cincinnati (Tagovailoa left that game in the first half with a concussion), 16 against Pittsburgh, 17 against the Chargers, 29 in Buffalo, 24 in New England, 10 against Philadelphia and 20 against Tennessee. (Miami had defensive TDs in the last two of those games.)
That’s 18.7 points on offense in seven night games. That’s not good enough.
Another way of looking at this: Miami hasn’t reached 30 points in any of seven prime games but has topped 30 points in 14 of its other 27 games under McDaniel.
The Dolphins might need 30 on Sunday night if Allen torments a depleted Dolphins defense.
CHATTER
Why is Fangio sticking with
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Apple on Sunday in Howard’s absence instead of using Needham, Cam Smith or Justin Bethel?
“Eli, recently, has played better than he did earlier in the season. He’s a veteran. There’s know-how. He knows his limitations, knows who he’s covering. He knows the strengths and weaknesses of whatever we’re playing and does a good job adjusting.”
Barring injuries or something
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unexpected Sunday, rookie cornerback Smith will end his rookie season with just 18 defensive snaps in 17 games. That’s disappointing for the secondrounder, considering Ramsey missed seven games this season and Howard will miss a fourth on Sunday. Fangio said Smith must “improve in all areas. Assignment, technique, execution, know-how.”
Dolphins offensive coordinator
A Frank Smith, who helps McDaniel craft the game plan, finished first in an NFL Players Association survey that asked players to rank the best offensive coordinator in the league.