What potential Butler trade market could look like
The ball is in court now: With the Heat unwilling (at least for now) to acquiesce to his request for a maxmoney one-year extension — one that essentially would convert a two-year, $101.2 million deal into a three-year, $161 million agreement — Butler must decide whether to ask for a trade.
A source reiterated that Butler feels strongly about getting the extension this summer. Pat Riley said he doesn’t need to decide for another 13 months.
Even if Butler doesn’t ask for a trade, the Heat could explore one if it believes he could become a malcontent or distraction if not given the extension.
When asked whether he might trade Butler, Riley said “no” before adding “not right now.”
If Butler publicly requested a trade and made clear that he would expect any team trading for him to extend his contract, that could further diminish what might be a limited market. And it would make it challenging for the Heat to get a package commensurate in value to Butler’s skill level.
That’s why Butler holds at least some of the leverage in this situation.
What would a trade market for Butler be, if the Heat goes that route?
“Limited at best,” a veteran NBA scout said last week, adding that it becomes even more limited if he demands from a new team to be paid $58.6 million in 2026-27, when he’s 37. (That’s what he’s asking of the Heat.)
As the scout said, “It’s got to be a team on the cusp [of a championship] that would have interest, and that limits the options.”
Some purely hypothetical Butler scenarios that could be worth considering for both parties, while keeping in mind that the
Heat cannot take back more money than it’s sending out unless it stays below the projected $178.3 million first apron, a threshold that Miami is projected to exceed:
PHILADELPHIA
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst repeatedly warned viewers to keep an eye on the 76ers as a potential landing spot for Butler if they aren’t able to sign impending Clippers free agent Paul George into their $60 million in cap space.
From a Heat standpoint, there are two negatives but one potential positive in any trade that would send Butler to Philadelphia.
The negatives: 1). Miami would be strengthening an Eastern Conference rival, and 2). The Heat couldn’t get any players back from Philadelphia except backup center Paul Reid; Joel Embiid and Reid are the only experienced 76ers under contract for next season.
The positive: Because the 76ers have cap space to absorb Butler’s $48.8 million salary, Miami would not need to take equal salary — or close to equal salary — in return if a third team is involved, which would seem necessary.
Even if the 76ers offered their three available firstround picks and three first-round pick swaps, it seems unlikely that would entice Miami, which loathes the idea of trading All-Star-caliber players for draft picks. That trade nevertheless would be permitted under NBA cap rules.
But here’s how a Butler/ Philadelphia trade could realistically work: If Miami and Philadelphia find a third team that covets those three 76ers firstround picks and would give the Heat a very good established player in return, as part of a threeteam deal, with that third team pocketing the 76ers’ draft assets.
The trick would be finding such a team and a player.
76ers general manager Daryl Morey told reporters this week that his team’s biggest need is “someone at the wing who can play and deliver in the playoffs.” Butler is one of the NBA’s best playoff performers in recent years — unlike George.
NEW YORK KNICKS
Butler to the Knicks in a package for Julius Randle would work, as could OG Anunoby (who’s an impending free agent) and a second significant piece.
“I like the Randle idea for Miami, but I’m not sure I like it for New York,” the scout said.
With Butler at $48.8 million next season and Randle at $30.3 million, the Knicks would need to include another player or players to make the money commensurate. The Knicks’ inclusion of Bojan Bogdanovic, due to make $19 million in an expiring contract, would make the numbers work on that Butler/Randle hypothetical.
But New York could easily consider that too much to offer, because of the five-year age difference between Butler and Randle, who has a $32.4 million player option for 2025-26.
Randle, 29, is a three time All-Star (including this season) but has been out since dislocating his shoulder on Jan. 27; he underwent season-ending shoulder surgery. He averaged 24 points and 9.2 rebounds this season. Butler, 34, averaged 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists.
Butler has been the far better playoff performer.
NEW ORLEANS
Would the Pelicans — fresh off of being swept by Oklahoma City in the first round — consider trading Brandon Ingram and his expiring $36 million contract for Butler? ESPN said New Orleans doesn’t want to give Ingram a big new contract, and so it’s dubious if ownership would want Butler’s big salary, either.
The Pelicans would need to send out more money than Ingram in that hypothetical deal, and Larry Nance Jr.’s $11.2 million expiring contract and a player at the minimum would make this a capcompliant trade.
Ingram, 26, has been an All-Star once before (in 2020) and averaged 20.8 points in 64 games this season — down from 24.7 a year ago, a drop that resulted largely because Zion Williamson played 70 games after appearing in 29 the previous season.
“I would do that trade in a heartbeat if I’m the Heat,” said one veteran NBA front office member, via text message.
In such a scenario, the Heat basically would be comfortable with giving Ingram an enormous longterm contract, as opposed to having him as a oneyear rental.
But would the Pelicans — who already have one star with durability issues in Williamson — want to take on another who misses 20-plus games a season in Butler? That’s dubious.
CLEVELAND
While a deal built around Donovan Mitchell and Butler would make some sense if both players ultimately ask out, it would leave the Cavaliers without enough shooting and floor spacing.
The Heat likely would need to include Duncan Robinson — because including Tyler Herro likely makes it far too difficult from a salary cap perspective — and the
Cavs and Heat would still need to settle on a second, third and maybe fourth Cavs player to navigate through cap gymnastics.
The problem is that Mitchell makes $13 million less than Butler next season, and throwing in Robinson would mean the
Heat would need to take back another $30 million or so in salary besides Mitchell. It’s not impossible but would be very challenging.
(From a Mitchell/Heat standpoint, a hypothetical offer of Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., a first round pick and Thomas Bryant, after he opts into $4 million, would satisfy cap rules.)
OTHER TEAMS
Other thoughts from the scout: “There’s no trade fit with Phoenix; they’re not giving you [Kevin] Durant” unless Durant asks out…
“Milwaukee doesn’t have anything of [commensurate] value to offer for Butler if [Damian] Lillard [and obviously Giannis Antetokounmpo
are] off limits.”...
One league official said he would be very surprised if Oklahoma City would be willing to trade some of its young players for an aging All-Star, and the math wouldn’t work anyway…
Golden State has too many luxury-tax issues to consider taking on more big money, and Andrew Wiggins or Draymond Green wouldn’t be adequate value for Butler regardless…
With the Lakers, it’s impossible to concoct a package of near equal value for Butler without including Anthony Davis,
who’s at $43.9 million next season. And that would likely be a non-starter for Los Angeles. Austin Reeves, Rui Hachimura, Gabe Vincent and two other small pieces — plus two Lakers first-rounders — wouldn’t be enough value for Butler.
Keep in mind that even though LeBron James can become a free agent, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski said it’s very likely James will re-sign with the Lakers, despite his non-committal public comments.
Atlanta’s Trae Young could be the biggest name traded this summer (besides Mitchell) but any Butler scenario with Young likely would send Butler to a third team.
Would the scout give Butler the extension?
“I could not justify it,” the scout said. “Remember, Butler plays three quarters of the season every year. It hurts them. If he plays more, they’re not in the play-in and not playing Boston. There’s a lot of wear and tear on the body.”