Republicans faring better than in 2008 early voting

WASHINGTON — Republicans seem to be faring better in the early-voting process than they did in 2008, putting themselves on track to outperform Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., though they still trail Democrats somewhat.

Democrats built a lead at the beginning of the month among early voters, particularly in Iowa and Ohio, two important battlegrounds. But Mitt Romney’s momentum, combined with increased voter contacts by Republicans, appears to be giving him a lift in early voting in the states that will decide the election.

The question is whether Romney’s improvement will be good enough.

Barack Obama won the 2008 popular vote by more than seven points. To level the playing field this time, Republicans will want to exceed their 2008 early-vote performance by significantly more than a percentage point or two.

Will they accomplish that? It’s too early to say with any certainty. And it remains unclear how the massive storm that struck the East Coast on Monday will affect the totals.

But here’s what seems to be happening so far in each swing state:

Nevada: Early voting is important here; at least 70 percent of Nevadans appear likely to take part. If turnout in 2012 is about what it was in 2008, that would mean that a third of voters have already cast their ballots.

The centerpiece is Las Vegas-based Clark County, where about three-quarters of the state’s voters reside. Democrats are not quite on pace to match their 83,000- vote lead in early voting in Clark County in 2008, and they appear to be losing some steam. But they were ahead by about 47,000 votes Monday with five days to go — early voting ends Friday — and should have a clear lead going into Election Day.

Polls and the party breakdown suggest that Obama leads early voting statewide by about eight percentage points. If he wins the early vote by that margin, and if 70 percent of voters cast early ballots, Romney will need to take about 60 percent of the vote on Election Day to make up his early-vote deficit.

Iowa: Republicans continue to chip steadily away at the Democrats’ big lead in early voting. The spread was once 60 percent Democratic to 22 percent Republican, but it’s now 45 percent Democratic and 32 percent GOP.

That 13-point difference is less than Democrats’ margin in 2008 and about the same as in 2004, when President George W. Bush won the state despite losing the early vote.

Given that Democrats in 2008 carried the early vote by 18 points and Obama won Iowa by 10 points, the GOP would increase its odds of victory if it reduced its earlyvote deficit even further.

Early voting turnout so far is 30 percent of the state’s entire 2008 turnout.

Ohio: There is no traditional party registration in Ohio, so an assessment of the early vote requires other clues.

Democrats have long pointed out that 53 or 54 percent of early votes have been cast in precincts that Obama won in 2008. But Republicans note that, if you look at the 2010 governor’s race, precincts that John Kasich, R-Ohio, won account for about 55 percent of the early vote.

Some polls, though, show a big advantage for Obama in the early vote. The president led by 30 points in a Time poll last week, and a CNN poll Friday showed him winning by 21 points among early voters. Despite that apparent edge, many polls show a very close race, ranging from a tie to a five-point Obama lead.

So far, early voting has accounted for about 17 percent of the vote, according to 2008 turnout figures.

North Carolina: Democrats have composed 50 percent of early voters here, while Republicans have accounted for 31 percent.

That 19-point margin is slightly down from the 21point advantage Democrats had in 2008. Republicans also note that, at this point in 2008, Democrats led by significantly more than what their final margin turned out to be.

Democrats carried the early vote by 21 points in 2008, but Obama won the state overall by less than one point (many of these Democrats were presumably conservatives who voted Republican for president). So any improvement on the early vote would probably be good for Republicans.

And North Carolina will be a tough state for Obama to make up votes on Election Day, given that he trails in most polls.

Florida: Democrats have taken a slight lead since inperson early voting began Saturday. While Republicans lead by 63,000 votes on absentee ballots, Democrats lead by 73,000 on in-person early voting.