Threat to Miami economy from shutdown is limited, experts say,
Don’t worry about the South Florida economy...yet.
That sentiment prevailed Wednesday at the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce’s annual South Florida Economic Summit.
For Wells Fargo economist Charlie Dougherty, Florida and South Florida’s economies are enjoying momentum many other U.S. regions would kill for, thanks to individuals voting for Sunshine State climes with their feet — and taxdollar savings.
This should allow the region to ride out the economic and financial turbulence generated by stock market gyrations and the government shutdown, at least for now, he said.
“The state has regained nearly all of the momentum that was lost as a result of the devastating impacts of recent hurricanes, primarily Hurricane Irma in September 2017,” he said.
With those impacts now mostly in the rear-view mirror, he said, hiring in the region should remain solid, although it is still likely to slow as a result of the tight labor market. South Florida also remains a top destination for retiring boomers and immigrants, offsetting a broader trend of slowing immigration from other states, he said.
Further supporting the local economy: demand for Miami real estate, especially among high-end clients. Ben Moss, director of realty group Compass’ sports and entertainment division, said there remains huge demand for splashy purchases from the likes of rappers Lil Wayne and Kanye West, not to mention current and future athletes (think MLS stars for the new Inter Miami soccer club).
“This is a recession-proof clientele,” Moss said.
Alex Hernandez, director of sports and entertainment banking for IBERIABANK’s sports and entertainment group, added Miami has the potential to be a new Nashville as a hub for music workers. Of note: Latin Music just surpassed country among the most popular genres in America.
A more fundamental concern among chamber members: Will robots take our jobs? In a breakout session asking just that, the consensus among the experts was: it depends.
As an example, moderator Rick Beasley, executive director of CareerSource South Florida, noted the new ordering kiosks at McDonald’s restaurants across the country. Many routine jobs and back-office jobs, Beasley said, are now at risk of automation.
The fear of job loss was even more heightened among South Florida’s banking and legal community. Josias Dewey, a partner at Holland and Knight law firm, said experts in fields like banking compliance could soon become extinct, thanks to technologies like artificial intelligence and the blockchain. These technologies have the ability to streamline processes and reduce the risk of human error.
“People like me may not be here next year,” he quipped.
But Greg Hanifee, associate dean of Executive MBA Programs at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Business, was more skeptical. Whatever automation does occur, better or faster processes will not be able to replace traits like interpersonal communications, trustbuilding, and emotional intelligence that truly drive business success.
And Susan Amat, CEO of VentureHive, said she can’t wait to have mundane tasks like email automated so that she and her coworkers can focus on more value-additive and creative tasks.
“Bring on the robots,” she said.
If there is one lingering deficit in South Florida, it is talent, said Jason Liberty, CFO of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. He said large companies like his are in a daily “war” for it. His company flies in 600 tech specialists per week — including engineers, software programmers, data analysts — to shore up the deficit in South Florida, he said. While Royal Caribbean is starting to work more closely with universities to develop curricula that can produce more qualified science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) graduates, there is much work to be done, he said.
“We are desperate,” he said.