Tough road ahead in playoff chase
There are just two weeks remaining in the regular season and still no assurance the Heat will make the playoffs.
Tuesday’s painful home loss to the Magic didn’t help, with the result pushing Orlando past Miami in the standings for the Eastern Conference’s eighth and final playoff spot. Still, the Heat could realistically finish anywhere from 10th to sixth place in the East.
The No. 8 Magic is a half-game ahead of No. 9 Miami, with No. 10 Charlotte just one game behind the Heat. But the Heat is also just one game behind the No. 7 Detroit Pistons and 1.5 games behind the No. 6 Brooklyn Nets.
“If you want to make the playoffs, it’s going to be uncomfortable,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said, with an important Thursday home matchup against the Mavericks looming. “This is what the playoffs actually feels like. There’s a big misconception and a big lie about the playoffs. Everybody thinks it’s so fun. When you are actually in it, it’s a grind. So this is a great blessing to be in—in a situation during the season where you feel this.”
After Tuesday’s loss, FiveThirtyEight.com’s playoff predictions dropped the Heat’s chances of making the postseason, which was hovering around 50
percent for the past week, to 29 percent. Entering Wednesday, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index had the Heat with a 41.4 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Both project Miami to finish with a 39-43 record. With eight regular-season games remaining, the Heat would have to post a 3-5 record the rest of the way to end with 39 wins.
Among the Heat’s eight remaining games, three are at home and five are on the road. Also, five come against teams with a winning record (Celtics twice, Raptors, 76ers and Nets) and three are against teams with a losing record (Mavericks, Knicks and Timberwolves).
Orlando, Charlotte, Detroit and Miami have similar remaining schedules in terms of difficulty. But Brooklyn is the team at a clear disadvantage when it comes to remaining opponents with a challenging seven games remaining: at Philadelphia, vs. Boston, vs. Milwaukee, vs. Toronto, at Milwaukee, at Indiana and vs. Miami.
Where is the Heat at a disadvantage? Tiebreakers.
Orlando clinched the tiebreaker against Miami when Tuesday’s win clinched the season series over the Heat, 3-1.
Charlotte has already clinched the tiebreaker against Miami. The Hornets and Heat split the season series, 2-2, which means it comes down to division record since they are in the same division. Charlotte is 10-5 within the division with one division game remaining, and Miami is 7-9 with no division games left to play.
With Detroit and Miami splitting the season series, 2-2, it comes down to conference record. The Pistons own a 25-22 conference record and the Heat is 21-25 within the conference, which means just a few more Detroit conference wins or a few more Miami conference losses would clinch the tiebreaker for the Pistons.
The Heat could still end up earning the tiebreaker against the Nets. The easiest way would be to defeat the Nets in Brooklyn in the final game of the regular season on April 10. The Heat would then clinch the season series over the Nets, 3-1.
“I think we all know that it’s going to come down to the end,” Heat guard Dwyane Wade said of the close playoff race. “It’s not the way I wanted it to be. I would like the last game not to be that way, so I can just shoot all my shots, but I’m going to have to play a good basketball game. It is what it is. This team has done that the last couple years. We’ve went down to the very end a few times and we’re in the fight.”
MAKING HISTORY
With the Heat at 36-38 for the season and 19-17 on the road, it could be on the verge of accomplishing an extremely unique feat.
According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 1955-56 Knicks are the only team to ever finish a season with a losing overall record while posting a winning road record. The Knicks were 35-37 that season, but 16-13 on the road.
Why is the Heat in this unusual position? Miami is just 17-21 at AmericanAirlines Arena this season, which assures the Heat of a losing home record with just three home games remaining.
Before this season, the Heat had finished with a losing home record just once during Spoelstra’s first 10 seasons as head coach — in 2014-15 with a 20-21 mark. That was also the only season the Heat ended the regular season with a losing overall record under Spoelstra.
INJURY UPDATE
Josh Richardson has been added to the Heat’s injury report, as he’s listed as questionable for Thursday’s game against the Mavericks because of a bruised left heel.
Justise Winslow is also questionable with a right thigh bruise. Rodney McGruder continues to deal with left knee soreness, as he’s listed as out and is expected to miss his sixth consecutive game.