Leaderless Bolivia in chaos as uncertainty rattles region
The resignation of Evo Morales, who was in power for nearly 14 years, leaves a power vacuum and chaos in Bolivia. Both his allies and foes in the region are trying to come to terms with the broader implications of his exit.
Bolivia remained in a chaotic power vacuum on Monday as its congress struggled to convene and appoint an interim president amid continued violence on both sides of the political divide.
As of Monday, it remained unclear who would replace Evo Morales, who resigned on Sunday amid mass protests, allegations of electoral fraud and pressure from the military.
But even as Bolivia was trying to pick up the pieces of its democracy, the region was scrambling to come to terms with a new reality: The absence of Morales, who had been in power since 2006 and was seen as a pillar of political and economic stability even by those who opposed his brand of Latin American socialism.
“After [Morales’] resignation, it is worth remembering what came before he took office back in 2006, namely huge amounts of political instability and a series of short-lived presidencies,” wrote Fiona Mackie, the Latin America Regional Director at The Economist Intelligence. “It’s increasingly likely that we’ll see a return to a similar situation, as society is deeply
polarised, and bearing in mind that Morales retains a loyal and vocal base of support. In this environment, social unrest is unlikely to die down anytime soon.”
Morales’ resignation came as Latin America’s left seemed to be enjoying a resurgence, said Dimitris Pantoulas, a political analyst based in Venezuela.
With Andrés Manuel López Obrador running Mexico and Alberto Fernández winning the Oct. 27 election in Argentina, “we were seeing a new axis of progressive governments emerge and Bolivia was going to be part of that,” he said. “But with the loss of [Morales], obviously, that project becomes more complicated.”
Likewise, Morales’ ouster is a boost to opposition groups in Nicaragua, Venezuela and elsewhere who are trying to shake off deeply entrenched leaders.
“For the Venezuelan opposition this is a break,” Pantoulas said. “It’s a breath of hope that any government [no matter how powerful] can fall.”
President Donald Trump also weighed in on the regional implications of Morales’ resignation, calling it a “significant moment for democracy in the Western Hemisphere.”
“After nearly 14 years and his recent attempt to override the Bolivian constitution and the will of the people, Morales’ departure preserves democracy and paves the way for the Bolivian people to have their voices heard. The United States applauds the Bolivian people for demanding freedom and the Bolivian military for abiding by its oath to protect not just a single person, but Bolivia’s constitution,” he said in a statement Monday. “These events send a strong signal to the illegitimate regimes in
Venezuela and Nicaragua that democracy and the will of the people will always prevail.”
“We are now one step closer to a completely democratic, prosperous, and free Western Hemisphere,” Trump added.
Morales resigned Sunday just hours after Bolivia’s armed forces “suggested” he step down “for the good of the country.”
Morales and his allies in the region — including Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, Uruguay and Mexico — are calling it a coup.
For others, however, Morales’ exit was seen as democracy in action, a necessary step after he tried to cling to power through controversial and questionable elections last month.
On Sunday, the Organization of American States said auditors found the election was deeply flawed and called for it to be annulled. Although Morales on Sunday offered to hold new elections in a last-ditch attempt to appease protesters, his rivals and critics said he had to step down for trying to steal the vote.
Late Monday, Morales reportedly accepted asylum in Mexico, and said there were “illegal orders” to have him arrested. In the hours since he stepped down, more than a dozen buses have been torched, and homes of both pro- and anti-government leaders have been ransacked. Morales said his own home had been looted and destroyed by angry mobs.
“I ask the people, with much love and respect, to keep the peace and not fall into the violence promoted by groups trying to destroy the rule of law,” he said Monday on Twitter. “This is an urgent call to resolve all differences through dialogue and agreement.”
To complicate matters, a wave of resignations has left the country rudderless. Jeanine Añez, the second vice president of the Senate and a member of the opposition Democratic Unity party, has said she’s next in line of succession after the country’s vice president and heads of the House and Senate also stepped down.
But it was unclear how she was going to take her seat. On Monday, opposition leader and presidential candidate Carlos Mesa was pleading with supporters not to harass ruling-party lawmakers and allow them to get to congress, where they were needed to establish a quorum. Morales’ Movement toward Socialism (MAS) party controls about two-thirds of the legislature.
In addition, local media reported widespread protests in La Paz and El Alto with dozens of injuries.
The OAS on Monday urged Bolivia’s congress to meet to resolve the leadership void. It also called an emergency meeting of the OAS Permanent Council on Tuesday to address the crisis.
Mackie, with The Economist Intelligence Unit, said the road ahead is uncertain.
“The path to fresh elections won’t be easy in this environment. It is still unclear who will take over as interim president, when new elections will be held, and under what conditions,” she wrote. “Changes to the electoral authority and assistance from international observers will be needed for any new election process to run smoothly and have any sense of validity.”
When he came to power, Morales, along with Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez and Ecuador’s Rafael Correa, became a symbol of South America’s rising left. An indigenous leader who was seen as a champion for the rural poor, Morales was credited with overseeing a booming economy.
But he also clung to power, changing the constitution so he could run again. In 2016, he held a referendum seeking to run again. Even though it was rejected, he ran anyway, saying not to do so would violate his “human rights.”
Problems began on election night last month. With 83 percent of the vote counted, the online vote tallying system showed Morales was in the lead but not by enough to avoid a runoff against Mesa. However, the vote-counting platform went offline for 23 hours, and when it was restored, Morales’ lead had grown enough to give him a first-round victory.
As Morales declared himself the winner, protests erupted across the country.
On Sunday, the OAS said Bolivian electoral authorities couldn’t explain the interruption. In addition, auditors found that a previously unreported and unregistered computer server began processing the results when the system came back online. In its report, the OAS said the vote was “gravely” flawed and should be annulled.
“Let’s be clear,” Mesa said on Monday. “In Bolivia there has been no coup but a legitimate and massive citizen mobilization, a genuine Bolivian Democratic Spring.”
Perhaps nowhere is Morales’ fall being more bitterly argued than in Venezuela, where Nicolás Maduro has been in power since 2013 and opposition leader Juan Guaidó — considered the country’s legitimate president by Washington and more than 50 other nations — has been trying to force him out of office.
Maduro is accusing the OAS and other Washington-backed interests of unleashing “brutal repression” in Bolivia “and a coup d’état against our brother country.”
Meanwhile, Guaidó was hailing Morales’ ouster as a “hurricane of democracy.”
Guaidó has called for a national demonstration on
Saturday that might get a boost from the turn of events in Bolivia. Even so, that march is facing resistance from some opposition factions who see it as futile — particularly as Venezuela’s military still backs Maduro.
The role of the armed forces is the crucial difference between Bolivia and Venezuela, analysts said.
In Bolivia, the military remained relatively independent and when they broke ranks with Morales over the weekend it was clear he could no longer govern, said Antonio De La Cruz, the executive director of InterAmerican Trends, a political consulting firm.
In Venezuela, however, the military and security apparatus are much more beholden to Maduro and the ruling PSUV party. In addition, the military is a key beneficiary of the country’s corruption machine, he said.
“The groups that control the drug trade, contraband and corruption are the ones that rule Venezuela and they are groups that are highly motivated to stay in power,” he said. In that sense “it’s hard to imagine a situation in Venezuela like the one that happened” in Bolivia.
Pantoulas, the analyst, said it’s still too early to draw major lessons from Bolivia.
If over the next few days the country embraces democracy and pluralism, then it could be a beacon for others hungry for democratic change — including more moderate factions within Venezuela’s ruling party, or chavistas, he said.
“But if in Bolivia the restoration of democracy doesn’t happen, and we see reprisals and revenge, those moderate chavistas who considered negotiations, for example, aren’t going to do it,” Pantoulas said. “Because they’re going to think that the only thing the future holds for them is jail or death.”