Canes can play in Orange Bowl even without Coastal title

The Hurricanes have qualified for a bowl game, but they don’t know which one. The Capital One Orange Bowl is a possibility, and their best chance of getting there may be to not play in the ACC title game.

Believe it or not, the Miami Hurricanes could still end up in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Dec. 30 at their home stadium.

But even crazier is that for it to happen, the Hurricanes would have a better shot if they don’t win the Atlantic Coast Conference’s

Coastal Division, which they still have a convoluted chance to do.

If Miami (6-4, 4-3 ACC) should win the Coastal and then somehow overcome overwhelming odds to beat defending national champion Clemson (10-0, 7-0) on Dec. 7 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, the Canes

would automatically go to the Orange Bowl.

But the more realistic way is what we’re talking about.

The most important factor would be Miami not making the ACC title game, because it would be a sure underdog to Clemson. And should the Canes lose, they’d have at least five losses and be bypassed by the OB.

If no ACC team is ranked in the College Football Playoff Committee’s final top 25 outside of Clemson, which is expected to make the CFB Playoff, then the Orange Bowl gets to choose its ACC team to face a team from the Big Ten or Southeastern Conference or

Notre Dame.

The ACC’s Atlantic Division member Wake Forest (7-2, 3-2) plays Clemson Saturday and is a 32-point underdog. Wake Forest also plays remaining ACC games against Duke (2-3, 4-5) and Syracuse (3-6, 0-5).

If Miami wins out and finishes 8-4 in the regular season, while Wake Forest finishes 9-3 and Virginia (7-3, 5-2) wins the Coastal and loses to Clemson in the ACC title game for a 9-4 record — and neither Wake nor Virginia are ranked — then the Orange Bowl could choose Miami, which beat Virginia.

Pittsburgh (6-3, 3-2), which Miami also beat, can finish 9-3 as well.

Various factors would be considered by the Orange Bowl, such as TV attractiveness and programs that bring visitors to South Florida. Keep in mind that if Clemson should lose the ACC title game, then the Orange Bowl is obligated to take the ACC champion — regardless of that team’s record or ranking.

The last time UM played in the Orange Bowl game was in 2017, when it lost to Wisconsin 34-24.

The Hurricanes qualified for a bowl Saturday by defeating Louisville 52-27. They must win their final regular-season game on Nov. 30 at Duke to even have a chance to win the Coastal — and then be dependent on other Coastal teams winning or losing.

UM is now fourth in the Coastal behind Virginia, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech (6-3, 3-2).

The Canes need various scenarios to play out to reach the ACC title game. Miami needs Virginia Tech to beat Virginia in their regular-season finale Nov. 29 at UVA. UM would also need Virginia Tech to lose to Georgia Tech or Pittsburgh or both, and for Pitt to lose at least one more conference game (vs. North Carolina on Thursday, at Virginia Tech on Nov. 23 and home against Boston College on Nov. 30).

To make matters even more mind-boggling, it’s possible that the Coastal Division could end up in a five-way tie. Miami would be in bad shape in that scenario.

Right now, Miami could land in a number of bowls, including the Camping World Bowl in Orlando (where it opened the season against Florida), the Sun Bowl in El Paso and several others.