Super Bowl 54 pick: QB Mahomes gives Chiefs the edge
GREG COTE’S
NFL PLAYOFF PICK — SUPER BOWL 54
No Cinderella made it to Miami, at least none like Ryan Tannehill and the Titans would have been. It is no big surprise or fluke that the NFC No. 1 seed 49ers and AFC No. 2 seed Chiefs — a combined 29-7 — made it to the NFL’s 54th Super Bowl and record 11th held in Miami. And yet there is a newness, a fresh-air quality to the matchup even beyond the Patriots and Tom Brady not being in the game for a pleasant doggone change. Kansas City’s last playoff appearance and win was 50 years ago, an epic drought for any sport or fan base.
And San Francisco, going after a record-tying sixth franchise Super Bowl win, has been stuck on five since ever-distant 1994 (Jimmy Garoppolo had just turned 4) and is here after finishing 4-12 just last season.
Gambling-nerd housekeeping: Sunday’s over/under of 54 1⁄2 points is the fifth highest in SB history. The one-point spread is tied for second lowest; the only pick-’em game was SeahawksPatriots five years ago. One team’s long wait is going to end Sunday night at Hard Rock Stadium. Here is who that team will be and why:
49ERS (15-3) VS. CHIEFS (14-4) IN MIAMI
Line: KC by 1.
Cote’s pick: KC 31-23. (Sunday, 6:30 p.m., Fox).
I dare any bettor to claim a strong, overriding feeling about any game with a one-point spread, on a neutral site, with two teams so good a winning argument for either would be simple and sound solid. This Super Bowl is that kind of either/ or proposition, a pick so tough you could flip a coin and then thank the coin for mercifully ending your vacillation. Since Chiefs-49ers is so even I’m tempted to pick the micro-miniupset, just because. But I won’t, because I actually do have a fairly strong overriding feeling about this matchup — and it’s Patrick Mahomes. He will be the difference. Mahomes isn’t really good; he is difference-making great. With speed-burning Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce he will almost always find someone open Sunday — largely because his creativity and elusiveness, his buying extra seconds, will frustrate San Fran’s big pass rush. Arik Armstead and Nick Bosa lead a group of four Niners edge rushers that combined for 33 sacks in the regular season, and Mahomes neutralizing that threat will be the absolute key to the Chiefs winning. Also, K.C. will present to Raheem Mostert a much better run defense than the shoddy excuse for one the Packers had. Plus the ball-minding Chiefs are less prone to turnovers than the Niners. San Fran’s path to winning may be clearest through the air, by pounding George Kittle, but Garoppolo and this team are less-suited to that type of game. One more: Andy Reid-coached teams are 23-4 all time after a bye or with an extra week to prepare. Time for Reid to finally meet the Lombardi Trophy, and for the face of the league to be
Mahomes’.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
After a solid regular season on our picks but a rough playoffs we aced the Conference Championship round, with wins and covers by both the Chiefs and 49ers. Each had been minus-7 1⁄2, the first time since the 2007 season that the AFC and NFC title-game faves both were giving more than a touchdown. No such disparity here, with a near pick-’em Super Bowl. That bromide that it isn’t how you start but how you finish? May it be true for us here.
Overall; Vs. spread
Last round — 2-0, 1.000; 2-0, 1.000
Playoffs — 5-5, 500; 3-7, .300
Final 2019 — 169-86-1, .663; 129-120-5, .518
Final 2018 — 179-75-2, .705; 145-104-7, .582