MLB season simulator has Marlins competitive early
Jonathan Villar belts out a pair of home runs in the first and second innings. Jordan Yamamoto gives up one earned run and strikes out eight over seven innings. The Miami Marlins make a statement and defeat the defending
World Series champion Washington Nationals 3-1 in front of 13,369 at Marlins Park on Monday to improve to 3-2 on the season.
As most should know, this game didn’t actually happen. The Marlins and the rest of Major League Baseball aren’t playing right now. The coronavirus pandemic has them in a holding pattern, waiting to find out when — or if — they will begin the 2020 season.
Instead, this is how StratO-Matic projected the game would have unfolded.
Strat-O-Matic, which started as a tabletop baseball game in 1961 and has since evolved into online sports simulations, is making its attempt to predict the 2020 season, providing hypothetical outcomes for how the MLB landscape could have unfolded in a normal time. As it stands, June seems like the earliest for that to happen, although that still feels optimistic.
Each day at 2 p.m., strato-matic.com provides full boxscores of each game that was set to be played. This includes short summaries, attendance and time of game. Injuries and subsequent roster moves are involved, too, just like they would in a normal season.
And so far, the Marlins are holding their own early in this simulation of what would have been the third season of their rebuild under the Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter ownership group.
Prior to their win against the Nationals, the Marlins split their four-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies to open the season. Miami took a 4-3 win on Thursday and a 5-4 walk-off win in 12 innings on Saturday while losing 3-1 on Friday and 2-0 on Sunday.
Jesus Aguilar had multiple hits in each of those four games, including the walk-off single in Saturday’s victory. Miami’s starting pitching five-some of Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith, Jose Urena, Pablo Lopez and Yamamoto combined to post a 2.32 ERA while striking out 31 in 31 innings one turn through the rotation.
They also had to deal with the injury bug early, as third baseman Brian Anderson hasn’t played since leaving the season opener in the fourth inning with an undisclosed injury. Anderson’s injury has resulted in a lot of moving parts defensively.
Jon Berti and Miguel Rojas have spent time at third base. Villar moves from center field to shortstop when Rojas is at third. Lewis Brinson or Magneuris Sierra plays in center field when Villar is at shortstop.
Their two losses to the Phillies came from missed opportunities, going a combined 1-for-19 with runners in scoring position.
OTHER SIMULATIONS
Strat-O-Matic isn’t the only website simulating MLB’s season. BaseballReference has its own version as well.
In that projection, the Marlins are 4-1 after defeating the Nationals 5-3 on Monday night, although there is some curious roster construction in Baseball-Reference’s attempt to create the 2020 season.
Matt Kemp, a nonroster invite to spring training, made the roster. That move was plausible but not guaranteed.
But four others who weren’t on the 40-man roster and were long shots at best to make the Opening Day roster did in this simulation: Infielder Eddy Alvarez and pitchers Trevor Rogers, Tommy Eveld and Dylan Lee. Notable names not on the roster in this scenario? Lewis Brinson, Garrett Cooper and Yamamoto.
Jordan McPherson: 305-376-2129, @J_McPherson1126