It’s not too early to look at Dolphins’ playoff scenarios
Miami’s most-realistic chance of making the AFC playoffs is as a wild card, but with four games left on the schedule, many possibilities remain.
The Miami Dolphins enter December in playoff position, which wildly exceeds expectations in the second year of a major rebuild.
That’s the good news. But here’s the caveat: The Dolphins probably have the most-difficult schedule of the teams competing for an AFC playoff berth. And two teams chasing Miami — Baltimore and Las Vegas — have easier schedules.
Because the Buffalo Bills (9-3) keep winning, let’s assume — for this exercise
— that they, and obviously Kansas City (11-1), Pittsburgh (11-1) and the AFC South winner (Tennessee or Indianapolis) make the playoffs.
Keep in mind that seven teams will make the playoffs in each conference, an increase over six in previous years. The NFL announced last month that if meaningful games are canceled due to COVID, the NFL will expand the playoff pool to eight teams in each conference.
Though Miami — at 8-4 — is still very much alive for the AFC East title, a wild card berth appears more likely at this point.
And in that scenario — with the Bills winning the division — Miami would be one of six teams competing
for three wild card spots. Those six: the team that loses the AFC South (Titans or Colts), the Dolphins, Cleveland, Baltimore, Las Vegas and New England.
At the moment, Cleveland is the fifth seed, Miami the sixth and Indianapolis the seventh.
Here’s a look at the schedules of the teams competing with the Dolphins and tiebreaker scenarios, with head to head and conference record the top two tiebreakers — in that order — used to break ties for wild card contenders from different divisions:
Dolphins (8-4): A difficult remaining schedule with Kansas City and New England at home and then Las Vegas and Buffalo on the road.
Miami is 5-3 in the AFC, which explains why it holds a higher seed than Indianapolis, which is 4-4 in the conference. Baltimore is 4-5 in the conference, giving Miami a potential edge in a tie with the Ravens, though that’s far from certain.
Buffalo (9-3): The Bills close against Pittsburgh, at Denver, at New England and home to Miami. The Bills would win the tiebreaker with Miami if they beat the Dolphins in the
Jan. 3 finale in Orchard Park.
If the Dolphins win the finale and finish with the same record as Buffalo, the tiebreaker would go to the team with the best division record. The Bills are 4-0 in the division and the Dolphins 2-2, meaning Miami cannot win that tiebreaker but could theoretically force the use of a third tiebreaker — best won/loss percentage in games against common opponents, which still needs to be sorted out.
●●FC South contender Tennessee (8-4): The Titans close at Jacksonville, home to Detroit, at Green Bay and at Houston. They’re 6-4 in the conference, Miami 5-3.
The Dolphins likely have a better chance winning a tiebreaker against the Colts than the Titans, so Dolphins fans probably should root for Tennessee to win the division, though it clearly helps if the Titans and Colts lose a lot.
●●FC South contender Indianapolis (8-4): The Colts’ final four games: at Las Vegas, Houston, at Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. Because the Dolphins and Colts have only AFC opponents remaining, Miami would win the tiebreaker with Indianapolis.
Cleveland (9-3): The Browns’ final four games: Baltimore, at Giants, at Jets and home to Pittsburgh. The Browns — with the Jets on their schedule and two home games — might be difficult for Miami to overtake. Cleveland is 6-3 in the conference.
Baltimore (7-5): The
●
Ravens close at Cleveland, then home to Jacksonville and the Giants, and then play at the Bengals.
Though the Dolphins have three AFC losses compared to five for Baltimore, Miami stands at risk of being jumped by the Ravens if they sweep what’s the easiest remaining schedule of probably any contender.
Las Vegas (7-5): The Raiders’ final four: Indianapolis, Los Angeles Chargers, Dolphins, at Denver. A Dolphins/Raiders tiebreaker will be resolved in their Dec. 26 meeting in Nevada, a prime time Saturday night game on NFL Network.
●New England (6-6 entering Thursday night’s game at the Rams): at the Los Angeles Rams on
Thursday, at Miami, Buffalo and the Jets. If the Dolphins and Patriots finish tied for a wild card berth, the Patriots would win the tiebreaker if they beat Miami on Dec. 20 at Hard Rock Stadium.
If the Dolphins win that game, it would be difficult to envision the Patriots catching Miami for a wild card berth. But if the Dolphins win that game and somehow finish tied with the Patriots for a wild card berth, best winning percentage for division games would be the next tiebreaker, with New England positioned to win that tiebreaker in that highly unlikely scenario.