Stout defense can keep Dolphins in game vs. Chiefs

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK CHIEFS (11-1) AT DOLPHINS (8-4)

Line: KC by 7 1⁄2.

Cote’s pick: KC 24-20. TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

Coming off a big week for Miami. The Dolphins won again to make it a 7-1 run, the playoffs within reach. Now, in the all-good-thingsmust-end category, come Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. I do give Miami a legit upset shot. It’s why this was in my mix for Game of the Week. The Dolphins defense is for-real legit. Don’t know if anybody can stop Tyreek Hill, but Xavien Howard is waving around eight interceptions and raising his hand. Also note that KC’s last four wins have been by one score, 15 points total. Chiefs have lately been finding a way more than dominating. Mahomes has not faced a particularly rugged schedule and the Dolphins might just be his toughest test yet. Having said all that, Mahomes is Mahomes. The best. Hill and TE Travis Kelce can seem unstoppable. Now RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire returns from an illness. Miami’s paths to an upset are A.) Tua Tagovailoa getting into a shootout with Mahomes, or B.) Miami’s defense being at its best. Choose B. Might not be enough to win, but should be enough to stay on the right side of the betting line.

GAME OF THE WEEK STEELERS (11-1) AT BILLS (9-3)

Line: BUF by 2 1⁄2.

Cote’s pick: BUF 28-24. TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC. As with my picking Browns to beat Ravens this week (spoiler alert; see below), this pick just feels, well, weird. I am unaccustomed to doubting the Steelers, let alone a Pitt team this good. And I definitely am not used to having much faith in Buffalo. In any case, it’s a matchup fit for its prime-time stage. A Steelers win would not surprise, or even feel like an upset. Big Ben getting points is as tempting to me as a cognac with dessert after a filet mignon. Josh Allen shredded the San Fran D on Monday night, but will find it much tougher to navigate the Steelers’ secondary. Pittsburgh is coming off its first loss, to Washington, but that was off four days’ rest. This won’t be. My head says Bills even as my gut says nah. Better put a period at the end of this sentence before I change my mind.

UPSET OF THE WEEK BRONCOS (4-8) AT PANTHERS (4-8)

Line: CAR by 4.

Cote’s pick: DEN 23-20.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS. “AAAWWWK!” carols the Upset Bird. “Denver Braaawwwk!” Denver is coming off its best performance of the year in that 22-16 loss to Kansas City. Proves that somewhere within the erratic Broncos is a stout defense, oft-dormant but capable of arising. (This is also the team that beat a hot Miami, remember). As for Carolina, COVID hit the Panthers this week, and Teddy Bridgewater will be operating without two of his top three receivers. Cats hoped to have RB Christian McCaffrey back from a shoulder injury and still might, although a new thigh issue erased him from Thursday’s practice and left his status for Sunday shaky at best.

THE REST OF WEEK 14

Texans (4-8, even) over @Bears (5-7), 24-17: Tempting to like Chitown at home to end a six-loss skid in a rare pick-’em game. But I’d hesitate. Texans playing much better lately, and Deshaun Watson will be stoked to whup on the team that picked Mitchell Trubisky over him in ‘17 draft. Ready to clean out your desk, Matt Nagy?

Cowboys (3-9, -3 1⁄2)

over @Bengals (2-9-1), 27-21: Andy Dalton back in Cincy to face his longtime former team, although that storyline lost sizzle with the injury to the man who replaced him, Joe Burrow. Both teams in a lost-year free fall. Like Dallas, especially if Ezekiel Elliott (calf) is good to go, although ‘Gals with points a decent play.

@Giants (5-7, +1 1⁄2) over Cardinals (6-6), 23-20: Upset! Two teams headed in opposite directions. ‘Zona, on 1-4 skid, hasn’t been the same since Kyler Murray’s shoulder injury all but eliminated his running threat. NYG has won four straight with much-improved defense. QB Daniel Jones could return for Biggies, although I might stick with Colt McCoy here after he just piloted that upset of Seattle.

@Buccaneers (7-5, -6 1⁄2)

over Vikings (6-6), 31-27:

Two straight L’s and three in past four games have loosened Tom Brady’s grip on a Buccaneers’ playoff ticket, while surging Vikes are on a 5-1 roll. Tampa’s defense has fallen off during past month’s slump, although Bucs front seven will make it tough sledding for Dalvin Cook. See a Brady/ Bucs bounce-back off a bye, but love Minny getting this many points.

Titans (8-4, -9) over @Jaguars (1-11), 30-23:

Mike Glennon set for his third straight start as a healthy Gardner Minshew stews. Hey, like it matters? Both have their fingerprints on this 10-game Jax losing streak. Still, Titans only beat Jags 33-30 in first meeting, and Jags have lost close to good teams four of past five weeks. Can’t find trigger on an outright stunner, but J’ville plus-9 feels right.

@Raiders (7-5, +2 1⁄2)

over Colts (8-4), 27-24:

Upset! Two teams clawing for playoff spots in a really big AFC game. I get why Nags are road faves after Vegas needed a late miracle to beat winless Jets — but still feel good about this gamble, even with RB Josh Jacobs iffy to play. Jon Gruden knows Philip Rivers well from all his years with Chargers, and Indy’s depleted O-line may be down to its third-string left tackle to protect Old Man Rivers.

@Seahawks (8-4, -13 1⁄2)

over Jets (0-12), 27-16:

Seattle just lost to Giants. Jets had Las Vegas beaten until the bonehead blitz that got defensive chief Gregg Williams immediately fired. Now forget all that. Russell Wilson will not lose two straight to a New York team. But Seabirds seem on auto-pilot in a soft stretch of reschedule, so I’ll chance NYJ to keep it (relatively) close.

Packers (9-3, -9) over @Lions (5-7), 41-23: Gee Bees clinch NFC North title with win if Vikings lose at Tampa. Pack is on a 9-1 run in division games and handled Motown by a threetouchdown margin in first meeting. What’s changed? You how these Aaron Rodgers-Matthew Stafford shootouts tend to go. Give Lions a better shot if both Kenny Golladay and D.Andre Swift are back; otherwise, let’s not reinvent the wheel on this one.

Saints (10-2, -7) over @Eagles (3-8-1), 28-16:

Philly rookie QB Jalen Hurts makes first career start over benched Carson Wentz, a move popular with fans, less so in Birds lockerroom. For N’Awlins, Drew Brees is close to back but Taysom Hill gets a fourth straight start here. Its a tough spot for Hurts, with PHI on a four-loss skid and Saints on a nine-win streak. Fleur-delis clinch NFC South crown with win. Book it.

Falcons (4-8, -2 1⁄2) over @Chargers (3-9), 27-23: It would surprise only slightly if the team that just lost 45-0 (Chargers, to New England) won here. Such is my lack of trust in the inconsistent Falcons. Give us the road fave because ATL’s defense has been better lately, and the shine on Justin Herbert’s rookie year has dimmed the past couple of games. Bolts still a tempting home ‘dog, though.

Washington (5-7, +3) over @49ers (5-7), 19-17:

Upset! The Washington No-Names are on a 3-0 run behind Alex Smith, who is picking up Comeback POY votes by the bushel and now faces his former team. Niners have lost four of past five and just got pummeled by Josh Allen and Buffalo. I’d feel better about this pick if WAS RB Antonio Gibson were playing (he’s doubtful), but still banking on Smith with mo’ and mojo on his side.

@Browns (9-3, +1) over Ravens (7-5), 24-23: Upset!

(Well, technically). Monday night stage gets a good one with Game of the Week heft. Ravens have owned the Browns. BAL won 38-6 in season opener, has won eight of past 10 in series — and 10 of past 12 at Cleveland. That’s a big mental edge for Crows as Earthtones angle for first playoff berth since 2002 in franchise’s biggest game in years. So. Will the outcome signal a changing of the guard ... or same ol’ same ol’? I was conflicted. Out of habit, I hate trusting the Browns, and hate doubting Baltimore in this series. So show us, Browns. Show us how you handle a little respect.

[Point spreads used are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday afternoon.]

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

Nutty results (Giants over Seattle, Washington beats Steelers) were a part of Week 13, but we kept our beak above water at 9-6 overall and 8-7 against the point spread. Texans narrowly failed us in our Upset of the Week (“Aww”), but we did nail a trio of ’dogswith-points in covers by the Jaguars at Minnesota, Jets vs. Raiders and Washington at Steelers. [ Note: Thursday night pick was Patriots (6-6, +5) in upset over @Rams (8-4), 20-17.]

Week 13: 9-6, .600 overall; 8-7, .533 vs. spread.

Season: 123-68-1, .644 overall; 102-88-2, .537 vs. spread.

Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.

Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.