Tua lags in stat comparison, but receivers didn’t help
In part 2 of my three-part series on Dolphins rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, we examine statistical nuggets examining different elements of Tagovailoa’s rookie season, which included nine starts, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions:
Let’s start with the most
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elementary of stats:
Tagovailoa was 26th in passer rating at 87.1. Among players who started at least half of their team’s games, only Nick Mullens, Cam Newton, Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold had a worse rating.
In terms of completion percentage, Tagovailoa was 29th at 64.1 — ahead of only Baker Mayfield, Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Darnold, Wentz and Lock.
In yards per pass attempt, Tagovailoa was 26th at just 6.3 — ahead of only Darnold, Wentz, Haskins and Nick Foles.
In yards passing per game, he was next to last at 181.4; onlyNewton was worse at 177.1. But Tagovailoa’s average of passing yards per game was 200 if you throw out the first Jets game, when he played only two minutes of garbage time.
In ESPN’s complicated QBR metric, Tagovailoa was 26th. So all of the standard stats suggest Tagovailoa performed in the bottom quarter of the league among quarterbacks.
Tagovailoa’s deep passing —
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a strength at Alabama — was better than his Dolphins stats suggest.
Among passes thrown at least 20 yards in the air, Tagovailoa had three drops — which is a higher percentage of drops than any other NFL QB with at least 29 attempts. (Overall, Tagovailoa was victimized by 14 drops on all passes.)
Tagovailoa’s deep numbers — 10 for 29 for 259 yards, two touchdowns and one interception — were better than Joe Burrow’s (9 for 48 for 293 and one drop),
Mitch Trubisky’s (6 for 33 for 171, no drops), Jimmy Garoppolo’s (1 for 10 for 35 yards, no drops), Darnold’s (11 for 38, 303 yards and one drop) and Jared Goff’s (13 for 43 for 416 yards and two drops), among others.
The disparity between how
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Tagovailoa did in a clean pocket compared to facing a heavy pass rush was especially lopsided. Conversely, rookie Justin Herbert performed equally effectively in both scenarios.
When Tagovailoa had a clean pocket, he was very good: a 99.3 passer rating with 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The difference between Tagovailoa and Herbert with a clean pocket was negligible. Herbert had a 97.7 rating with 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions with a clean pocket.
Tagovailoa’s passer rating in a clean pocket was 20th among quarterbacks who started at least eight games; Herbert was 21st.
But when Tagovailoa was pressured, his passer rating fell to 45.6. His numbers when being pressured: 29 completions in 66 attempts, with no touchdown, two interceptions, four drops and 20 sacks.
Among quarterbacks who started at least eight games, only Lock (26.2 rating) was worse under pressure. Mayfield, Goff and Newton were barely ahead of Tagovailoa.
By comparison, Herbert was the best in the league in that “under pressure” metric: 99.4 rating, 110 for 193, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions.
Aaron Rodgers was next best at
89.3. (PFF describes this metric as reflecting performance on plays in which a pressure was registered.)
This reflects the biggest difference in Herbert’s play compared with Tagovailoa’s. Tagovailoa too often struggled when faced with a pass rush (like Ryan Tannehill
in his formative years) and held onto the ball too long in several cases.
Tagovailoa had the seventh
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shortest time to throw at 2.55 seconds, according to Next Gen stats. By comparison, Josh Allen
had 3.04 seconds to throw, on average, and Mayfield had 3.05.
But I found this interesting: When Tagovailoa had less than 2.5 seconds to throw, he was very good: 99.6 passer rating, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. That passer rating was better than those, in that situation, for Herbert, Mayfield, Burrow and Tom Brady, among others.
What that tells me: When Tagovailoa throws quick short-tointermediate routes — usually to his initial intended target, instead of needing to go through three progressions — he was effective.
When he held the ball too long, the pass rush often caved in,
situations that we saw in the second half of the Broncos and Raiders games that led to his benching.
One frustration with the Dolphins’ offense when Tagovailoa struggled was the fact he threw short of the first-down marker a number of times.
Per Football Outsiders, Tagovailoa had the eighth-highest difference between length of throw and distance needed for a new set of downs: 2.5, on average, compared with 2.1 for the more aggressive Ryan Fitzpatrick. But that was particularly hurtful to Tagovailoa because the Dolphins ranked 30th in yards after catch.
By comparison, Pat Mahomes was sixth in this category; his average was 2.7. But here’s the big difference: Chiefs playmakers were far better than Miami’s in taking those short throws for first downs. That’s exactly how KC sealed multiple games this season, including with its late firstdown conversion against Miami.
This supports the theory that the Dolphins need receivers who can generate more yards after catch.
Among impending free agent receivers, Nelson Agholor (5.0 yards after catch), Chris Godwin (4.6) and Corey Davis (4.4) would help that Dolphins’ YAC shortcoming. The Dolphins’ best receiver, DeVante Parker, averaged 2.7 in yards after catch.
PFF ranked Tagovailoa 29th ● among quarterbacks, noting he got lucky with several dropped interceptions. “Some early turnover luck caught up to him late, and he finished just 29th in turnover-worthy play percentage,” PFF said.
Coming Thursday in part 3: Comparing Tagovailoa’s rookie season to 25 other QBs who played as rookies this century.
CHATTER
The Texans won’t know
● where they stand with quarterback Deshaun Watson unitl he returns from vacation. Per ESPN’s Chris Mortensen, Watson is unhappy with the Texans and would consider the Dolphins if Houston surprisingly is willing to trade him.
●UM is expected to land former Miami Southridge four-star cornerback Tyrique Stevenson, who’s in the transfer portal after two years at Georgia. He started four games last season and made a game-saving play against Cincinnati in the Peach Bowl. Stevenson, Al Blades, Te’Cory Couch and DJ Ivey figure to be UM’s top four corners.
One frustration for the Heat: Even though Bam Adebayo and
Kendrick Nunn already have had COVID-19, they were required to sit out games Tuesday and Thursday this week — and potentially beyond — because they were close contracts with a Heat player who tested positive this week.
NBC-6 hired Telemundo’s
Jorge Andres as its new No. 2 sportscaster, behind Ruthie Polinsky. He will work on both English and Spanish TV.