Dolphins can’t lose as Watson trade rumor percolates
The Dolphins, unlucky to be the best team watching the playoffs on TV, now find themselves in the enviable position few NFL teams ever are: Win-win. No-lose.
It’s this Deshaun Watson situation, “situation” meaning entirely the stuff of media speculation. At least for now.
The Dolphins understandably have zero reason to involve themselves publicly in the public drama involving another team: the dissatisfaction of Watson, the Houston Texans’ superstar quarterback, and the reports he may want out and might favor a trade to Miami.
Here is how and why the Dolphins can look good no matter how this plays out:
They’re aggressive, go for the home run and declare to the entire NFL, “Look out. Miami is back. Win now, baby!”
They successfully pursue Watson in a blockbuster trade, one of the NFL’s biggest in years. They give up a ton — Tua Tagovailoa, perhaps the Nos. 3 and 18 first-round draft picks, maybe even star cornerback Xavien Howard — but they get what franchises dream off. Youth and proven excellence in a QB. Only Kansas City’s Patrick
Mahomes has that right now in greater abundance.
They’re not aggressive. The Dolphins stand by last week’s public recommitment to Tagovailoa as their guy moving forward.
They get to be the stable franchise with a bedrock plan. They affirm their belief in Tagovailoa by investing in him. They keep the No. 3 overall pick (one obtained via Houston, funny enough) and select Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith, who just lit up Oho State in the national championship game. They keep their 18th pick and all their others.
And they keep the Howard, the first Dolphin with a 10-interception season since 1967.
Both options are gambles.
Trade for Watson and you give up so, so much. Stick with Tagovailoa and you are rolling dice that he becomes what Watson already is.
It also bears noting the entire conversation might be moot, because the common belief is that there’s no way the Texans would part with Watson.
Really, though?
There are indications otherwise. Houston is a top-heavy rebuilding team: Great quarterback, not much else. A Miami trade wold give them a top-five quarterback and a ton of rebuilding capital. If Watson wants out to such a degree he threatens a holdout, a hookup with the Dolphins could seem more and more enticing.
So. What if it came down not to whether this megatrade could happen … but whether it should?
Would you rather have Deshaun Watson, a gutted draft and no Howard?
Or Tua Tagovailoa, the Nos. 3 and 18 picks and Howard?
In this scenario Dolphins general manager Chris Grier must go hard after Watson but also try to cut his losses.
Such as: In a Watson-for
Tagovailoa swap, Miami give up its third overall pick and lower picks, but not the 18th in the first round. Offers cornerback Byron Jones and maybe a second player, instead of Howard.
I would hesitate to pull the trigger on a Watson/ Tagovailoa trade that also involved Miami giving up the third and 18th overall picks and Howard.
After hesitating, though, would I do it?
Yes. Yes, yes, yes.
But here’s the thing. And it’s a part of that win-win, no-lose situation.
You can favor this trade and still be pro-Tagovailoa. You can favor this trade and believe Houston might be getting a great quarterback, too. There is an irrefutable difference, though.
With Tagovailoa, you have hope.
With Watson, you have proof.
With Tagovailoa, there is reason to be optimistic. That he will stay healthy. That he will improve from his rookie season. That he will justify that top-five draft status.
With Watson, you’d have right now everything — everything — you can only hope Tagovailoa might become.