How Tagovailoa’s rookie season compared with 25 others
So how did quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s season compare with the first seasons of other contemporary quarterbacks who played a lot as rookies?
We compared Tagovailoa’s rookie season with the first-season performance for 25 quarterbacks who started at least six games as rookies this century.
Tagovailoa finished his Dolphins rookie season with a 6-3 record in nine starts, with 11 touchdowns, five interceptions, an 87.1 passer rating and an average of 200.5 yards passing in his nine starts.
Because Pat Mahomes, Drew Brees and Tom Brady didn’t start multiple games as rookies, they weren’t included in this analysis. Here’s how Tagovailoa stacked up:
Tagovailoa was better than these QBs comparing rookie seasons:
Josh Allen: 12 games
●
(11 starts), 5-6 record, 67.9 passer rating, 181.9 yards passing per game in his starts, 10 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
●Sam Darnold: 13 games (13 starts), 4-9 record, 77.6 passer rating, 220.4 yards passing per game, 17 touchdowns, 15 interceptions
Joe Flacco: 16 games
●
(16 starts), 11-5 record, 80.3 passer rating, 185.7 yards passing per game, 14 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
Ryan Tannehill: 16
●
games (16 starts), 7-9 record, 76.1 rating, 205.9 yards passing per game, 12 touchdowns, 13 interceptions
Derek Carr: 16 games
●
(16 starts), 3-13 record,
76.6 passer rating, 204.4 yards passing per game, 21 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
Alex Smith: 9 games
●
(7 starts), 2-5, 40.8 passer rating, 120.1 yards passing per game in his starts, 1 touchdown, 11 interceptions
Eli Manning: 9 games
●
(7 starts), 1-6, 55.4 rating, 139.6 yards passing per game in his starts, 6 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
Carson Wentz: 16
●
games (16 starts), 7-9 record, 79.3 rating, 236.4 yards passing per game, 16 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
Matt Stafford: 10
●
games (10 starts), 2-8, 61.0 rating, 226.7 yards passing per game, 13 touchdowns, 20 interceptions
Jared Goff: 7 games (7
●
starts), 0-7, 63.6 passer rating, 155.6 yards passing per game, 5 touchdowns, 7 interceptions
Carson Palmer: 13
●
games (13 starts), 6-7, 77.3 rating, 222.8 yards passing per game, 18 touchdowns, 18 interceptions
●●ndy Dalton: 16 games (16 starts), 9-7, 80.4 rating, 212.4 yards passing per game, 20 touchdowns, 13 interceptions
Tagovaloa was clearly statistically worse than these QBs as rookies:
Justin Herbert: 15
● games (15 starts); 6-9 record, 98.3 rating, 289.1 yards passing per game in his starts; 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
Baker Mayfield: 14
● games (13 starts), 6-7 record, 93.7 passer rating, 271.1 yards passing per
game in his starts, 27 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
Russell Wilson: 16
● games (16 starts), 11-5, 100.0 rating, 194.9 yards passing per game in his starts, 26 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and 94 carries for 489 yards (5.2 per carry) rushing.
Ben Roethlisberger: ●
14 games (13 starts), 13-0 record, 98.1 rating, 188.1 yards passing per game in his starts, 17 touchdowns, 11 interceptions.
Deshaun Watson: 7
● games (6 starts): 3-3 record, 103 rating, 281.2 yards passing per game in his starts, 19 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and 36 rushes for 269 yards (7.5 average)
●Dak Prescott: 16 games (16 games), 13-3 record, 104.9 rating, 229.2 yards passing per game, 23 touchdowns, 4 interceptions.
Tagovailoa was on par with or slightly behind these QBs as rookies:
Lamar Jackson: 16
● games (7 starts), 6-1 record, 84.5 passer rating, 159.1 passing yards per game in his starts, 6 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 147 rushes for 695 yards (4.7 average).
Joe Burrow: 10 games ●
(10 starts): 2-7-1 record, 89.8 passer rating, 268.8 yards passing per game, 13 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
Matt Ryan: 16 games
●
(16 starts), 11-5, 87.7 rating, 215 yards passing per game, 16 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
Kyler Murray: 16
● games (16 starts); 5-10-1, 87.4 passer rating, 232.6 yards passing per game, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
●●ndrew Luck: 16 games (16 starts), 11-5 record, 76.5 passer rating, 273.4 yards passing per game, 23 touchdowns, 18 interceptions
●Cam Newton: 16 games (16 starts), 6-10, 84.5 rating, 253.2 yards passing per game, 21 touchdowns, 17 interceptions
Jameis Winston: 16
● games (16 starts) 6-10,
84.2 passer rating, 252.6 yards passing per game, 22 touchdowns, 15 interceptions
So, in summation, if Tagovailoa were inserted among these 25 quarterbacks who started multiple games as rookies this century, he would rank 10th (of 26) in passer rating, 18th in yards per game and eighth-best in won/loss record. If you average those three numbers together, he would be 12th of 26, which isn’t bad.
So the good news is that Tagovailoa was better, as a rookie, than Allen (who was an MVP candidate this season) and Eli Manning, who won two Super Bowls, and on par with Atlanta’s Ryan and Luck, who had fine careers.
He also was better as a rookie than three Hall of Famers who debuted last century: Peyton Manning (3-13 record, 26 TDs, 28 interceptions, 78.2 rating),
John Elway (4-6, 7 TDs, 14 interceptions, 54.9 rating) and Troy Aikman (0-11, 9 TDs, 18 INTs, 55.7 rating).
The bad news is he hasn’t shown as much early on as some of the best QBs who started as rookies the few years, such as Wilson and Watson and Herbert — who all had better supporting casts (which matters).