Evaluators on scenario that could force Fins to trade down
Without playing a single game, Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith in three months has somehow gone from the conventional no-brainer choice with the Dolphins’ initial pick in April’s NFL Draft to, well, something far different.
And let’s be clear:
That’s no fault of Smith, the Heisman Trophy winner who has extracted every ounce of talent from his 170-pound frame. But in some ways, taking
Smith with Miami’s pick at No. 6 would feel more like a consolation prize.
Two veteran executives told me they would have a difficult time taking Smith at No. 6 if UF tight end
Kyle Pitts or LSU receiver
Ja’Marr Chase are on the board because of the concerns about Smith’s size
(at 170, he will be the second-lightest first-round receiver this century) and a belief that the value move in that scenario
(with Pitts and Chase gone) would be to trade down a few spots to take either Smith or Alabama wide receiver teammate
Jaylen Waddle in the nine-to-12 range.
If Pitts and Chase are gone at six, that means two of the draft’s top-five quarterbacks will still be available when Miami is on the clock.
There presumably will be suitors for that pick in this specific scenario of Pitts and Chase going fourth and fifth to Atlanta and Cincinnati, which is a possibility but not anything close to a certainty. So taking Smith in that sixth spot rather than trading down — perhaps to Denver at 9 — would be a poor value selection, one longtime league executive insisted to me.
ESPN draft analyst
Matt Miller said: “Ja’Marr Chase is the best wide receiver in this class. He is a complete prospect who should have no development period in the NFL. You plug him right away as your wide receiver No. 1.”
A longtime NFC scout told me he rated Waddle ahead of Smith, too. Keep in mind that Waddle averaged 9.8 yards after the catch in his career at Alabama, highest among all Power 5 receivers with at least 100 catches since 2014.
NFL Network’s Bucky Brooks said “Waddle has a higher ceiling than Smith. He’s the more explosive, more dynamic playmaker.”
NFL Net’s Daniel Jeremiah also makes a case for Waddle over Smith, adding: “DeVonta Smith is a pristine route runner. I just thought what you get after the catch with some of the shiftiness and then just the home run speed with Waddle is why I ended up with Waddle over Smith. Waddle had the fastest GPS of any receiver, any country.”
And if you need a reminder why Pitts is the transformational nonquarterback in this draft, allow the NFL’s primary draft analyst to enlighten you:
“I don’t think he’s a tight end,” NFL.com’s
Lance Zierlein said. “I think Kyle Pitts is a playmaker.
“He can jump sky high over the moon. And when it comes to winning the jump ball, you are not going to beat him. And more importantly than anything, he is a matchup nightmare. I don’t know how you’re going to handle him with safeties.
“I’m not sure how you’re going to handle him with linebackers. You are going to have to find hybrid players to guard Kyle Pitts. And this is why I consider Kyle Pitts to be a wide receiver. You draft him like he’s a playmaker and a wide receiver.”
So let’s be clear: DeVonta Smith would be a fine pick for the Dolphins; the production and body of work speak for itself, even if the actual body is on the alarmingly thin side. But is Smith the best value at six rather than a trade down if Pitts and Chase are off the board?
That’s dubious. And if you take Smith at No. 6 — and he doesn’t stay healthy at his size — it will be fair to ask why Miami traded its own 2022 firstround pick to move from 12th to sixth when they might have been able to trade far less to move from 12 to 10 for Smith or Waddle at that point.
As former Dolphins executive Mike Tannenbaum’s new think-tank noted, Smith at 170 pounds would be the third lightest wide receiver to play a snap in the NFL since 2000.
The two lighter: JJ Nelson (2015) at 156 pounds and Marquise Brown (2019) at 166.
CHATTER
Last season, the Heat
●
and Justise Winslow
disagreed about whether he could play through a back injury; the Heat thought he could play and Winslow did not believe he could, per multiple sources.
But the Victor Oladipo
situation is different. The Heat fully supports Oladipo sitting out, for now, as he deals with soreness and seeks additional medical opinions.
At some point, he will need to decide whether playing — or not playing — leaves him at financial risk
with free agency looming.
The Marlins are very
●
much open to trading left fielder Corey Dickerson,
who has been a mild disappointment. The question is whether they will find a team willing to pay much of his $9.5 million salary this season. If they can, they likely would move Adam Duvall to left field and play Garrett Cooper primarily in right field.
NBC’s Cris Collinsworth
● said of UM’s Jaelan Phillips: “I know about the concussions, but Jaelan Phillips is the best defensive player in this year’s draft. I don’t even think it is close.” Meanwhile, Mel Kiper has the Hurricanes’ Greg Rousseau sliding to 35th, and Zierlein calls Rousseau a player who has “had public attention who I just don’t hear league people excited.”
Why is Sunday’s HeatNets
● game on ESPN (82.9 million U.S. homes) and the simultaneous Inter Miami-Los Angeles MLS game on ABC (121 million U.S. homes) instead of vice versa?
ESPN is required to put a certain number of NBA games on ESPN compared to ABC and this was a game it thought could meet that contractual obligation, with ABC airing soccer instead.