NBA scout sizes up Heat-Bucks first-round series
Thoughts from a veteran NBA scout on the HeatMilwaukee Bucks firstround playoff series: The scout, not authorized by ● his team to speak publicly, said it wouldn’t surprise him if the Heat won, because of the Heat’s ability to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo with versatile wings and bigs, the Heat’s exceptional offensive play recently, past playoff success against Milwaukee and more.
“I assume the Heat will play a lot of zone,” the scout said.
“Brook Lopez is guardable whoever is guarding him; any one of those three [Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Trevor Ariza] can guard him.
“With Giannis, anytime you get into a jump-shooting game, you have an edge. Even with the [Heat’s] size disadvantage, any of those three Heat guys — Butler, Bam, Ariza — are capable to some extent of matching up with him. If anybody can guard him, it’s Butler and Adebayo.
“Milwaukee is the much better rebounding team [second, compared to 29th for the Heat], but their defense gives up a lot of threes, and the Heat” is trending up offensively.
Both the Heat and Bucks allowed 110.7 points per 100 possessions, tied for ninth best in the league from a defensive standpoint. Milwaukee was the league’s highest scoring team.
“I’m telling you, Milwaukee is going to get schemed [by the Heat coaching staff],” the scout said. “The Heat didn’t have enough size against Philadelphia and did fine. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the size issue.”
Keep in mind that Antetokounmpo’s three-point shooting dropped from 30.4 percent last season to 30.3, but he took fewer this season (3.6 per game, compared with 4.7).
The scout acknowledges the ●
Bucks (with Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and P.J. Tucker) are better than last year’s team that lost in five games to the Heat in the Eastern Conference semifinals. But …
“People think Holiday is this great defender; he’s not,” the scout said. “Good defender, not a great defender. He’s much more of a scorer than a playmaker. He turns the ball over historically [2.7 per game in his career]. He’s a good player. Is he a killer? I don’t know that. He’s been an All-Star [once, in 2013].
Eric Bledsoe was pretty good last year; it’s a difference but not a huge difference. Their record was worse this year.”
I found this interesting: Players guarded by Holiday shot 47.4 percent this season, which was worst (from a defensive standpoint) among all Bucks starters.
Last season, players guarded by Bledsoe shot 41.4 percent. Holiday (17.7 points, 50.3 percent shooting) was very good offensively this season, better than Bledsoe last season (14.9, 47.5).
The scout gave the Heat the
●
edge in the backcourt, favoring
Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro over Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Pat Connaughton and Bryn Forbes.
“I give an edge to Miami at guard, but it’s not blatant, because of the way Nunn has been playing,” the scout said. “Forbes and Connaughton are just shooters. What Nunn and Dragic have is the ability to get their own shot; they’re more wellrounded offensive players.
“Having what Dragic gives them coming off the bench is really valuable. Herro is playing well. There is more upside with Miami’s guards.”
Another reason the scout
●
makes Milwaukee only a slight favorite: “Does the home court even matter this year? Barely. That’s been mitigated with the lack of fans. It’s not the same environment.”
As far as opening matchups,
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the scout said: “You can afford Ariza’s fouls more than Butler or Adebayo so I might start him on Giannis,” with Butler on Khris Middleton and Adebayo on Lopez. But he would put Butler and Adebayo on Antetokounmpo for significant stretches, as well.
Among newcomers to the
●
series (from last year), the scout gives the edge to Milwaukee with Holiday and Portis (“he’s had a very good year”) and to a lesser extent, Tucker.
But Dewayne “Dedmon’s
size is helpful. You can stick him on Giannis a little bit and he’s mobile enough to guard Lopez. You can stick him on Portis. He’s got shot blocking and size. And Ariza has looked pretty good, made some threes, can still defend.”
The scout’s curious how
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Milwaukee will respond if the Heat takes Game 1 or 2 in Milwaukee. “If they lose one of their first two home games, no doubt they will think, ‘Is this happening again?’ They need some playoff cred. They have a lot to prove.”
His final thoughts: “This
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could easily be a seven-game series. Milwaukee is a slight favorite, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Heat won. [The Heat is] gelling at the right time. They’re healthier than they’ve been. They beat them last year. You’ve got to look at where the Heat was at the end of the season, not earlier.”
Miami went 33-17 since a 7-14 start. This season, the Heat is 33-19 when Butler plays, the Bucks 40-21 when Antetokounmpo plays.
CHATTER
Although it would have been ●
tempting to select running back Najee Harris 18th overall, here’s another reason why the edge rusher Jaelan Phillips
pick made sense for the Dolphins:
Though their 41 sacks were 10th in the league, they had to blitz a ton to achieve that. The Dolphins blitzed 39 percent of the time last season, third most in the NFL. Over the past two seasons, the Dolphins defeated their blocks within 2.5 seconds only 35 percent of pass rushing snaps — 31st in the NFL.
The Dolphins needed more skilled pass rushers — beyond
Emmanuel Ogbah — who can generate a rush when they send only four rushers. That’s why Phillips at No. 18 made sense.
Fun fact: Both of the Dolphins’
● first-round draft picks
(Jaylen Waddle and Phillips) were named after former NBA player Jalen Rose, though both of their parents opted for a different spelling.
The minor-league revelation
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so far for the Marlins (besides outfielder Jesus Sanchez)? Left-hander Jake Eder, the Marlins’ 2020 fourth-round pick out of Vanderbilt, who has allowed no runs and four hits in 10 innings with 19 strikeouts. If this continues, he could get a chance as the Marlins’ fifth starter at some point this summer.
Marlins co-owner Derek
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Jeter is working with ESPN on a six-part documentary about him called “The Captain.” It will air in 2022. Spike Lee is one of the executive producers on the series.