Trump 2024 is a recycled, diminished version of the 2020 candidate voters rejected

There was no gold escalator ride, no head-turning statement, perhaps only a sense of deja vu as Donald Trump announced he’s running for president for a third time.

There were plenty of recycled lines and campaign promises — from draining the swamp to stopping illegal immigration. Those are sure to rally his loyal supporters. But other Republicans are beginning to question whether Trump’s tired tropes will work in 2024.

Trump’s Tuesday announcement, delivered from his gilttrimmed Florida mansion, Mara-Lago, showed a diminished version of the man who has gripped the GOP with an iron fist. Coming on the heels of embarrassing midterm elections results, Trump’s almighty status seems to be slipping away.

We know, though, that Trump is adept at overcoming an underdog status. In 2016, most in the media and in the political world initially dismissed his campaign — only to swallow their words later. What applies to Trump in November 2022 might be little more than a footnote in history by the time the 2024 presidential elections come around. Trump is, after all, a phenomenon for his ability to defy the odds.

But it’s still remarkable that the man we thought would only lose control over the Republican Party by his own choice or death looks so vulnerable.

Here are the five factors working against Trump — at least for now:

1. THE RED WAVE MIRAGE

Republican candidates thought they could ride the Trump train into office by denying the 2020 election results and borrowing his toxic political brand. Many got a reality check this month. They lost in states that will be crucial in 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada. In Georgia, a U.S. Senate runoff happens in December.

A much-hyped national red wave turned out to be a ripple at best. Republicans who once capitulated to Trump are pointing fingers at him after these disappointing results, with Florida as the notable exception.

2. DESANTIS

We doubt Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will forego the chance to capitalize on his landslide reelection victory last Tuesday, his popularity with Latino voters and his flipping of Democratic stronghold Miami-Dade County.

The chorus of Republicans urging DeSantis to run for president has grown. They are saying so publicly, apparently without concern for Trump’s wrath — a huge change from the past.

The conservative Club for Growth released a poll showing that, if the GOP primary were held now, DeSantis would lead Trump by 11 percentage points in Iowa and by 15 points in New Hampshire, both early primary states.

Based on how he’s attacked DeSantis, Trump knows the young governor is perhaps his biggest threat. DeSantis, on the other hand, is keeping his composure. He has so far refused to go head-to-head with Trump, taking veiled shots at his former ally instead — with an occasional humblebrag.

“At the end of the day, I would just tell people to go check out the scoreboard from last Tuesday night,” DeSantis said at a news conference this week.

3. THE GOP IS LESS SUBMISSIVE

Opposing Trump has usually meant political suicide for Republicans — look at what happened to Liz Cheney. More of them are now comfortable dipping their toes in No More Trump waters.

His sycophantic former vice president, Mike Pence, said he was open to a presidential run even if it meant competing against his former boss. Perhaps those “hang Pence” chants during the Trump-fueled attack on the Capitol have finally had an effect. Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a Wyoming Republican and election denier, declared DeSantis the new leader of the GOP in an interview this week with Politico.

By announcing his presidential bid early, Trump is trying to build a firewall between him and DeSantis and force Republicans into submission. Will it work? After the midterms, it’s more likely than ever that Republicans will resist rallying behind the former president.

But we have seen how Trump can use his voter base to obliterate opposition within his party. Much remains to be seen.

4. FLORIDA IS NOT THE REST OF THE COUNTRY

If the U.S. were Florida, the midterm elections would have been a red tsunami. But the Sunshine State is no longer a bellwether for national elections. It’s behaving more like a solid red bastion, though that can change in future elections.

The Trump brand remains strong in his home state. Republicans won a super majority in the Florida Legislature this year and DeSantis trounced Democrat Charlie Crist by 20 points. The post-mid-term picture looked a lot different in other states.

Voters outside of Florida rebuked Trump’s toxic brand of politics. Trump fatigue might — emphasis on might — be a real thing after all.

5. HIS LEGAL PROBLEMS

Investigations, state and federal, are continuing into his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, his handling of top secret documents that he took to Mar-a-Lago and his family businesses. If he’s indicted, he’ll no doubt resurrect his old cry of “Witch Hunt!” and claim the charges are aimed at deterring him from running. But without the machinery of the Republican Party behind him, he may find himself shouting to a thinning crowd, while the GOP turns to candidates without so much baggage.

Trump can’t be dismissed. He’s too good at exploiting weaknesses for the GOP to turn their backs on him fully. But if the subdued candidate we saw making his long-telegraphed big announcement this week is any measure, the Republican field for the presidential nomination will look far different this time around.