How Chubb deal and low cap space will impact Fins
The Dolphins’ trade for Bradley Chubb left them with less than $522,000 in cap space for 2023, with as much as $5.1 million in carryover space. Some things to know about how that could impact the roster next season:
Beyond fullback Alec Ingold, there’s not a single Dolphins running back under contract for 2023. So at least $5 million in space must be carved out to re-sign Raheem Mostert (who’s earning $1.2 million) and Jeff Wilson Jr. ($1.1 million) if Miami decides to do so. Both could get raises.
What happens if Tua Tagovailoa — under team control through 2024 — requests a long-term extension next spring and the Dolphins agree to one? That could have a modest impact on the Dolphins’ 2023 cap.
As perspective, Kyler Murray’s five-year, $230 million extension in Arizona — signed in July — raised his 2022 cap number by $5.9 million, which was the prorated portion of a $29 million signing bonus.
His cap hits of $12.7 million this season and $16.0 million next season then jump to $51.9 million, $41.6 million, $55.6 million, $43.5 million and $46.4 million over the following five years.
So if the Dolphins give Tagovailoa a lucrative extension, there would be somewhat of a cap impact next year, but the impact won’t be significantly felt for a couple of years. Tagovailoa’s cap hit next season is $9.6 million.
Though cornerback
Byron Jones could return next season, it almost assuredly won’t be on his current contract.
His $13.5 million salary is nonguaranteed in 2023, and the Dolphins likely won’t pay that much to a player who is missing most — if not all — of the 2022 season.
He has a big 2023 cap hit ($18.8 million), and that cap hit drops only to $14.8 million if he’s cut before June 1, but $4.8 million if he’s cut after June 1.
So if the Dolphins want to release him after this season, waiting until after June 1 makes the most sense. But restructuring the contract with a pay cut — if Jones is amenable — well before June 1 would make even more sense.
The Dolphins won’t be in any position to afford a veteran backup quarterback who’s as costly as
Teddy Bridgewater, who’s earning $6 million this season. They’ll need to find somebody cheaper or hope that Skylar Thompson is ready to assume the No. 2 job.
Re-signing Mike Gesicki looks unrealistic. Gesicki should command at least $10 million annually in free agency, and the Dolphins don’t have that kind of money unless they start chopping elsewhere.
Durham Smythe is under contract at a reasonable $3.2 million for next season (none guaranteed), with a $4.2 million cap hit. The Dolphins also must hope that Hunter Long and Tanner Conner are ready for more prominent roles next season.
Impending free agent cornerback Nik Need
ham’s season-ending knee injury could allow the Dolphins to re-sign him to a cheap deal — far less than what he would have commanded had he remained healthy.
Impending free agent
Andrew Van Ginkel could command more money elsewhere, considering the Dolphins don’t have much cap space. Van Ginkel has been playing about 25 snaps a game.
Melvin Ingram also is an impending free agent.
The Dolphins can free up additional cap space by restructuring contracts.
Some of the Dolphins’ 2023 cap numbers are jaw-dropping: $31.2 million for Tyreek Hill, $22.2 million for Chubb, $20.4 million for Terron Armstead, $18.8 million for Byron Jones, $17.4 million for Emmanuel Ogbah.
There are also sizable 2023 cap hits for Jerome Baker ($12.5 million),
Christian Wilkins ($10.8 million) and Xavien Howard ($10.1 million).
Hill, Armstead, Chubb and Wilkins aren’t going anywhere, and Howard likely won’t be going anywhere, either; he has high cap numbers if he’s kept, cut or traded.
The Dolphins are in a condundrum with Ogbah, who’s out for the year with
a triceps injury.
Keep in mind that Ogbah’s $15 million salary for 2023 is entirely guaranteed, and his $17.3 million 2023 cap number would mushroom to $21 million if he’s cut before June 1 but drop to $6 million if traded before June 1. So a trade cannot be ruled out, though another team likely would want him to restructure.
A trade could be the best way to resolve receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr.’s future; $5 million of his $7 million salary next season is guaranteed. But his $8 million cap hit in 2023 would drop to $2 million if he’s traded before June 1 and $1 million if he’s traded after June 1.
Besides Smythe, these players under contract for 2023 have no guaranteed money due in 2023 and have small or no dead money cap hits if cut:
Keion Crossen ($2.9 million salary for 2023), Ingold ($2.7 million) and
Cethan Carter ($2.3 million salary). Carter is most at risk of that group. Ingold figures to return.
The Dolphins likely will need to be cost-conscious at inside linebacker, which could mean another year for Elandon Roberts and Duke Riley (two impending free agents), with the team hoping that Channing Tindall will assume a larger role in his second season.
Baker would seem more likely to return than not, but keep in mind that that none of his $8.4 million salary next season is guaranteed. But Baker restructured his contract (lowering his 2022 cap hit by $2.5 million) to help the Dolphins facilitate the Chubb trade.
CHATTER
This was telling: Browns star defender Myles Garrett said that in the recent Cleveland-Dolphins game, “The way they attacked us was very detailed in what they were trying to do. They had us out of position a lot of the time. It seemed like when we tried to switch things up, they were a step ahead. They knew what adjustments we were going to make.”
Asked about Garrett’s comments, coach Mike McDaniel said: “He’s giving myself and the coaching staff a little too much credit.”
The Heat, exploring the power forward market, reportedly inquired about Utah’s Jarred Vanderbilt, who entered the week averaging 7.9 points and 8.5 rebounds.
UM, in the past week, has parted ways with four players who didn’t have futures here (Key’Shawn Smith, Thad Franklin, Gilbert Frierson, Elijah Roberts), and we hear talent isn’t the only factor. In at least one case, UM wasn’t happy with the effort level of a player in practice. More players will be jettisoned.