Pondering hypothetical trades for Dolphins in the draft
The Dolphins had just finished Day 2 of the
2023 NFL Draft, making a pair of picks after sitting idly on Day 1 without a first-round selection. It was the second year in a row that Miami didn’t pick in Round 1.
Miami forfeited its first-round pick last year as part of the league punishment for tampering and held a league-low four picks because of multiple trades.
General manager Chris Grier was sitting beside coach Mike McDaniel in the team’s news conference room when asked about the desire to keep the Dolphins’ 2024 draft capital.
Yeah, I think so. Mike hasn’t had a first-round pick selection yet,” Grier said.
“But I’ll be ready Year 3,” McDaniel said with a grin.
That time could be coming soon.
The Dolphins, who gave up their 2022 firstround pick in the trade for wide receiver Tyreek Hill, have the No. 21 overall pick in the draft April 25. While Grier spoke at the NFL Scouting Combine about the need for an influx of young talent, he also didn’t rule out trading the first-round pick.
“I think you have to be open to everything,” he said. “If it’s a possibility of moving up or moving down for something and get in a better position to get a player that we may say is a home run for us, we’re definitely open to moving up. If someone wants to drop to our spot and we move down and pick up extra picks, we’re very open to that as well.”
Using the Jimmy Johnson Draft Trade Chart, the model that uses a point-based system to attach value to picks, here are three hypothetical deals the Dolphins could make.
TRADE UP
Trade idea: Dolphins trade the No. 21 pick and a 2025 second-rounder to Denver for the No. 12 overall pick.
Rationale: The Broncos are a quarterbackneedy team that isn’t in a position to get one of the top three quarterbacks. They also need as many picks as they can get facing a historic dead-money cap hit after trading Russell Wilson. The question for the Dolphins is which player is worth moving into the top half of the first round?
Miami needs interior offensive linemen as well as defensive linemen, but how about Georgia tight end Brock Bowers? He’s the consensus top tight end prospect in a draft that isn’t as deep as last year, and he could change the dynamic of the Dolphins’ offense. If he doesn’t go to the New
York Jets at No. 10, where he has been a popular mock draft pick, he could start to slide. Miami is slated to get a pair of third-round compensatory picks next year, which would offset the loss of next year’s secondrounder.
TRADE DOWN
Trade idea: The Dolphins trade the No. 21 pick to Las Vegas for Nos. 44, 77 and 112 and a 2025 fourth-rounder.
Rationale: This would be a steep price to pay for the Raiders. But it’s the type of move Las Vegas could make as it also won’t be able to get the top-three quarterbacks at No. 13. The back of the first round could be the sweet spot to land a second-tier quarterback, such as Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.
It would also be a drastic drop-down for Miami, which would be taken out of position to potentially select a top prospect.
Miami, though, doesn’t have any picks in the third and fourth rounds, and this deal would give the team a full arsenal of selections, along with an extra pick next year.
From here, the Dolphins could package some picks to move up in the second round and target a player they covet.
TRADE FOR A VETERAN
Trade idea: The Dolphins trade 2025 third- and fourth-round picks for Washington Commanders defensive lineman Jonathan Allen.
Rationale: Grier acknowledged that the Dolphins need young contributors. But Miami is still in win-now mode and has a glaring hole on the defensive line after Christian Wilkins signed with the Raiders. The Dolphins signed several defensive linemen in free agency but none projects as a volume starter at Wilkins’ position.
There have been rumors that Allen could be a trade candidate. New Washington general manager Adam Peters said the Commanders are “not interested in trading” Allen, but that always comes with a caveat if a team has the right offer. Miami doesn’t have much mid-round draft capital this year so the team would likely have to dip into next year’s stash to make a deal work.
Allen has a $21.4 million cap hit and no more guaranteed money on the final two years of his deal, so some restructuring would be required to fit him under the cap and make him financially content.
Grier has been willing to restructure deals and add void years for top talent. Allen, a Pro Bowler in 2021 and ’22, would help round out the Dolphins’ defense.