2 parties, 2 ways to earn delegates
GOP winner more likely to lock up larger share
The Wisconsin Primary is not just about which candidates win this showdown state on Tuesday. It’s also about where they win. Most delegates in both parties will be allocated by congressional district, turning a statewide contest into a region-by-region struggle for votes.
The implications of that are very different for the two parties.
Republican rules make it possible for a big statewide winner to walk away with most or all of Wisconsin’s delegates, creating a golden opportunity for opponents of New York real estate mogul Donald Trump. By denying him here, they can make it that much harder for the front-runner to amass a delegate majority before the July GOP convention in Cleveland.
In contrast, Democratic rules in Wisconsin make it almost impossible to make big delegate gains. That’s bad news for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who’s desperately trying to close the delegate gap with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
On both sides, regional politics will come into play.
Trump has more appeal to Republicans in the north and west. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz looks formidable in the vote-rich southeast. Ohio Gov. John Kasich could pick up delegates in southern Wisconsin even if he finishes third statewide.
The two Democrats have dueling geographic
bases: Sanders in Madison, Clinton in Milwaukee. But areas such Green Bay, Stevens Point and La Crosse are critical battlegrounds, and more up for grabs.
Here’s a look at how the map will shape the math in the Wisconsin primary next Tuesday:
Different parties, different rules. Of the state’s 42 Republican delegates, 24 are allocated by congressional district. Wisconsin has eight U.S. House seats, and each one is worth three Republican delegates to the winner. The GOP’s other 18 delegates — 15 at large and three members of the Republican National Committee — go to the winner statewide.
Wisconsin Democrats do things a bit differently. Of their 96 convention delegates, 57 are allocated by congressional district, 29 go to the statewide winner and 10 are unbound superdelegates.
Unlike Republicans, Democrats don’t give equal weight to each district. Those that produce more Democratic votes in statewide elections are rewarded. The very blue 2nd District anchored by Madison, for example, has more than twice as many delegates (11) as the very red 5th District, which includes most of Waukesha and all of Washington County (five). The 4th District has 10, the 3rd has seven, and the 1st, 6th, 7th and 8th have six apiece.
Democrats award their district and statewide delegates proportionally, instead of winner-take-all, as the GOP does. If Republican Ted Cruz wins Milwaukee’s 4th District by just one vote, he gets all that district’s delegates. But if Democrat Clinton wins 60% of the vote in the 4th, she would get only six of its 10 delegates, while Sanders would get four.
In other words, the delegate count is all but guaranteed to be closer in the Democratic contest than the Republican, no matter what the popular vote is.
Cruz could conceivably walk away with all of Wisconsin’s delegates if he were to win the popular vote by 12 or 15 points. But even a 10point victory for Sanders isn’t going to cut very far into Clinton’s delegate lead.
Consider what happened eight years ago in Wisconsin, when Barack Obama routed Clinton by 17 points — and only netted a 10-delegate advantage. Despite her big defeat, Clinton still came away with more than 40% of the state’s pledged delegates.
The GOP map. A poll released Wednesday by the Marquette University Law School showed big regional variations in each candidate’s vote. Support for Cruz ranged from around 20% in the Madison media market to close to 50% in the Milwaukee media market. Support for Trump ranged from 40% in northern and western Wisconsin to a little more than 20% in the southeast. Kasich drew under 20% across the northern half of the state but almost 40% in south central Wisconsin, where Madison is.
What does that mean for the delegate chase?
Previous Republican primaries offer some clues. In 2012 and 2008, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee lost statewide, got slaughtered in the populous southeast, but performed well with rural voters. Against John McCain in ’08, Huckabee won the 3rd and 7th districts in the west and north. Against Mitt Romney in 2012, Santorum won the 3rd, 7th and 8th in northeast Wisconsin.
Trump’s support has followed a similar pattern in
the polling: He could lose statewide and still pick up six to nine delegates. But if Cruz outperforms his 10point lead in the Marquette poll, Trump could conceivably come away with no delegates — a huge blow, mathematically and psychologically.
The Democratic map.
Sanders is expected to roll up big margins in Dane County, one of the best-performing Democratic counties in America. Clinton is favored to carry the city of Milwaukee, boosted by her support among African-Americans. The two districts anchored by Madison and Milwaukee, which have the most delegates, should split their vote.
The rest of the state is more competitive and less predictable. Battleground regions such as metropolitan Green Bay and the La Crosse/Eau Claire media market will have a huge impact on the winner of the statewide popular vote.
But because of proportionality, the Democratic delegate fight should be competitive in Wisconsin under almost any scenario.