Trump reaches on unemployment rate

At a campaign rally in Janesville on Tuesday, Donald Trump took aim at Gov. Scott Walker and — reading from notes that he said came from “books” — made a number of statistical claims that reflect negatively on the state.

The Republican front-runner for president cast blame on the Republican governor and onetime presidential candidate, citing figures on state government debt and the number of people on food stamps.

But one of Trump’s most striking claims was about unemployment — something Walker frequently takes credit for having brought down.

“Unemployment rate — well, they say — that can’t be possible,” Trump said, looking at his notes. “Unemployment rate, they have down 20, that can’t be possible.”

As members of the audience interjected, Trump continued by saying:

“What? Is it 20%? Effective or regular? I mean just — effective unemployment rate, 20%. Hey, this is out of the big book.”

So, is Wisconsin’s “effective” unemployment rate 20%?

The measures

There is no official measure for the effective — or as Trump on other occasions called it, the “real” — unemployment rate.

But even taking into account the federal government’s most expansive measure of unemployment, Wisconsin’s rate doesn’t even reach double digits.

Here’s what the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics told us:

BLS has six measures of unemployment, ranging from U-1, the most restrictive, to U-6, the most expansive.

In between is U-3, the official unemployment rate. That’s the one you see reported in the news most often.

The U-3 official unemployment rate in Wisconsin was 4.6% for 2015. That rate is updated monthly. The most recent rate, for February, was also 4.6%.

The U-6 rate, meanwhile, is sometimes referred to unofficially as the “real” unemployment rate. U-6 includes people who are unemployed, plus “marginally attached workers,” meaning those who are not in the labor force but want to work and are available for work. It also includes people who want to work full time but, because of economic conditions in their area, are able to work only part time.

The U-6 rate is calculated only annually. Wisconsin’s U-6 rate for 2015 was 8.3% — again, far below Trump’s 20%.

Trump made a similar claim in June in announcing his run for president. He said the “real” unemployment rate for the United States at the time was “anywhere from 18 to 20%. Don’t believe the 5.6. Don’t believe it.” (At the time, the official unemployment rate nationally was 5.5%.)

PolitiFact National rated that statement False, citing U-6 figures as we’ve cited.

Trump’s campaign staff didn’t respond to our requests for information.

Our rating

Trump said Wisconsin’s “effective” unemployment rate is 20%.

Wisconsin’s latest official unemployment rate — the one reported most often in the news — was 4.6% in February. It was also 4.6% for all of 2015.

The government’s most expansive unemployment rate — which includes the unemployed, people in the labor force who aren’t looking for work and people who are working part time but want to work full time — for Wisconsin was 8.3% for 2015.

We rate Trump’s statement False.

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