Kasich has to win by losing
At a certain point at the Hoover Dam, visitors can actually stand with one foot in Arizona and the other foot in Nevada. In the Sugar song “Hoover Dam,” singer Bob Mould exports this experience to the philosophical, saying that he’s “on the center line, right between two states of mind.”
In Tuesday’s Wisconsin presidential primary, Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s supporters also find themselves stuck between two states of mind. In order to give their candidate the best chance to win the nomination, they have to hope he loses badly.
At this point, Kasich is a zombie candidate — he’s been mathematically eliminated, but still soldiers on, collecting votes, hoping to make his case at an open convention later this year. But if Kasich were to take too big of a bite out of Ted Cruz’s vote in Wisconsin, it could hand more delegates to Trump, who is leading the national delegate count at this point. Both Cruz and Kasich are playing a game of keepaway — they merely need to deny Trump enough delegates for him to fall short of the 1,237 majority he needs going in to the convention in Cleveland.
And in Wisconsin, the best hope of keeping delegates from Trump — and thus keeping Kasich’s Hail Mary convention hopes alive — is for Cruz to run up the vote and for Kasich to get blown out on Tuesday.
This paradox was evident earlier this week, when the Journal Sentinel published a blistering critique of Donald Trump, calling him “unfit to be president” by “any measure.” The editorial was entirely true.
The very next day, the Journal Sentinel ran an editorial endorsing John Kasich, calling him the GOP’s “best hope.” The piece correctly notes that “Kasich is the only GOP candidate who consistently outpolls Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in a headto-head matchup.” Wednesday’s Marquette University poll bolstered this contention in Wisconsin, where Kasich led Hillary Clinton by nine percentage points, while Cruz was tied and Trump trailed Clinton by 10 percentage points.
Both pieces are firmly grounded in fact, but together they work against one another. If voters follow the editorial board’s recommendation in the latter editorial, they boost the chances that the nightmarish dystopia the board posits in the first editorial becomes a reality.
And yet, of course, there is a catch that makes the calculation in Wisconsin even more complicated. Wisconsin hands out delegates based on a mix of statewide vote and congressional districts — and in the state’s heavily liberal 2nd Congressional District, which surrounds Madison, Kasich appears to be leading the field. So if Kasich could win only that congressional district, it would have the same effect of keeping delegates from Trump. It would seem wise for Kasich, an Ohio State graduate, to familiarize himself with the home of the Badgers in the remaining days of the campaign.
It’s possible that the roles may be swapped in future states where Cruz isn’t as popular. In other contests, the Trump delegate firewall may be built by Kasich outpolling Cruz and winning more delegates. But in Wisconsin, that clearly isn’t feasible with Kasich pulling half of Cruz’s vote at this point.
For Republicans, this maneuvering seems like a game of fantasy football, when a player on your fantasy team is playing your favorite team in real life. You think of complicated scenarios where you can have it all — the Packers get a big lead early, and your fantasy player on the other team racks up a few garbage time touchdowns.
Perhaps voters don’t vote so tactically; for those who have an equally visceral reaction to both Trump and Cruz, voting for Kasich may be the only way they can rest their heads easily at night. Donald Trump might be the one that behaves like he’s desperate to lose elections by the largest margins, but Kasich is the one that would actually benefit from doing so. Thus, if you live in Wisconsin and your eventual goal is to have Kasich be a player at this summer’s convention, it’s best to hold your nose and mark the box for Cruz.
Christian Schneider is a Journal Sentinel columnist and blogger. Email cschneider@jrn.com. Twitter: @Schneider_CM