Trump and the scrambled politics of trade

President sides with Democrats on Trans-Pacific deal

President Donald Trump’s move to scrap a huge Asian trade deal comes with its own political twist.

It aligns him both with liberal Democrats in Congress and the majority of his own Republican voters.

“I am glad you have fulfilled your promise to withdraw from this unfair trade deal,” Senate Democrat Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, far apart from Trump on most issues, wrote in a letter to the GOP president Tuesday.

She urged Trump to work with Democrats who agree with him on such policies as “Buy American and hire American,” naming China a currency manipulator and revisiting NAFTA.

There aren’t too many issues that now scramble partisan lines as completely as trade.

Until recently, free trade agreements were much more popular among GOP voters than among Democratic voters, but that pattern has flipped in recent years.

In the traditional manufacturing state of Wisconsin, for instance, Trump voters last fall were overwhelmingly negative about trade, while Hillary Clinton voters were mildly positive.

In a Wisconsin exit poll by Edison Research, 65% of Trump voters said trade with other countries takes away jobs and only 24% said it cre-

ates more jobs.

By contrast, 44% of Clinton voters said it creates more jobs and just 36% said it takes jobs away.

In a Wisconsin poll last summer by the Marquette University Law School, 55% of Republicans said that in general, free trade agreements with other countries have been a bad thing, compared with 34% of Democrats.

But among members of Congress, the partisan lines are reversed.

As they have been for many years, Democratic lawmakers remain more opposed to trade pacts than Republicans.

Baldwin was one of five Senate Democrats who introduced a bill last week aimed at blocking the Asian trade deal, known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

In her letter to Trump Tuesday, she cited Trump’s support for “Buy American” requirements and urged him to take up the issue against the opposition of Republicans in Congress.

House Democrat Mark Pocan of Madison also hailed the demise of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was opposed by a coalition of labor and environmental groups.

But congressional Republicans, who have traditionally backed trade agreements, were mostly quiet about Trump’s abandonment of the moribund Asian trade deal, which was long expected.

House Speaker Paul Ryan said in a brief statement that Trump “has followed through on his promise to insist on better trade agreements.”

Ryan has been a major proponent of getting an Asian trade deal done, but acknowledged last year he didn’t have enough votes to pass it in the House, and said the Obama administration had lost the support of Republicans like him on TPP by negotiating it badly.

Yet it’s clear that Trump’s far more sweeping indictment of free trade deals separates him from GOP leaders such as Ryan.

It aligns him with labor unions that have traditionally backed Democrats, and against business groups that have traditionally backed Republicans.

Among the public at large, the partisan role reversal on trade occurred under former President Barack Obama, as Democrats became more positive and Republicans became more negative, national polling by Gallup shows.

The Wisconsin polling also shows some shifts.

Back in 2008 — when Republican George W. Bush was president — Democratic presidential primary voters in Wisconsin were overwhelmingly negative on trade: 72% said free trade deals take more jobs away from the state than they create.

But in the 2016 presidential primary — with Democrat Obama in the White House — it was a far different story. Even though Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders won the Wisconsin primary while campaigning heavily against trade deals, Democratic primary voters were split on the issue: 42% said trade with other countries takes away jobs and 41% said it creates more jobs.

GOP primary voters were far more negative.

Trump, a fierce critic of trade, lost the Wisconsin primary, but GOP primary voters were with him on the issue: 54% said it takes away jobs, while just 33% said it creates more jobs.

Marquette’s polling suggests GOP voters became more negative about trade after Trump won the Republican nomination.

And in last fall’s election, Trump’s stand on trade got strong backing from the rural and blue collar whites — mostly Republican, but including many independents — who pushed him over the top in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin’s rural voters were far more opposed to trade deals than the state’s suburban or urban voters: 64% said trade pacts with other countries take away jobs, compared with 26% who said they create jobs, according to exit poll data provided by Edison Research.

And among white bluecollar voters in Wisconsin, who backed Trump by large margins, 61% said trade deals take away jobs. Just 24% said they create jobs.