Picking the likely master of Augusta
The Masters has the smallest field of the four major championships and the largest percentage of golfers who have absolutely no chance to win.
The Augusta National Golf Club is unkind to short hitters, cruel to poor putters, unsentimental to aging former champions and too big a puzzle to solve for Masters rookies and amateurs. That takes care of about 70% of the field.
“I always feel that you look at the top 10 in the world (ranking), you look at the top 10 on the money list in America and you look at the top 10 on the money list in Europe, and there’s your winner,” Colin Montgomerie said.
The Masters gets underway Thursday morning with Jack Nicklaus and Gary Player hitting ceremonial tee shots; it’s the first time in 62 years that the late Arnold Palmer won’t grace the grounds with his pres-
ence.
By the end of the day Thursday, half the field will have been eliminated and by Sunday afternoon it will come down to a handful of golfers tiptoeing through Amen Corner and jockeying for the green jacket.
In order, here are my top 10 picks to make their way to Butler Cabin for the Jim Nantz coronation:
Dustin Johnson: He’s ranked No. 1 in the world, is coming off victories in his last three starts and might be a top-five all-time driver of the ball. Once a weakness, his wedge game now is excellent. Johnson cracked the code at the 2016 U.S. Open and has the perfect demeanor for the major arena.
Jordan Spieth: He finished 2-1-2 in his first three Masters and would have made it backto-back victories in 2016 if not for that ugly quadruple-bogey on No. 12 in the final round. He doesn’t have great length but he’s got everything else, including the right kind of arrogance under that good-guy exterior.
Rory McIlroy: When he’s on a roll there’s no one better. He can be ordinary with the putter at times, but he’s ranked No. 2 in the world for a reason. McIlroy just needs the Masters to complete the career Grand Slam.
Phil Mickelson: OK, he’s 46 and hasn’t won in nearly four years. But Lefty has the same kind of relationship with the Masters that Palmer had and seems to be able to elevate his game when he drives down Magnolia Lane. Sneaky stat: He’s ranked eighth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained-putting.
Hideki Matsuyama: Someday, a golfer from Asia will win the Masters. That someday could arrive as early as next Sunday. It would surprise only those who haven’t been paying attention. Matsuyama has won twice this year and has finished in the top 10 in each of his last two Masters starts.
Justin Rose: A U.S. Open trophy and an Olympic gold medal are proof that he can rise to the occasion. Rose has a good track record in the Masters and has finished no worse than 14th in his last three starts, including a tie for second in 2015.
Rickie Fowler: Some consider him overrated based on his meager career victory total (4), but I don’t think he’s going to be another Sergio García. Fowler will win a major or two if he can get out of his own way and let his considerable talent take over.
Jon Rahm: The 22-year-old Spaniard has quickly moved up to No. 14 in the world. No one has won the Masters in his first start since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, but on the plus side, Rahm seems to have inherited the fearless gene from countrymen Seve Ballesteros and José María Olazábal.
Jason Day: Normally, I’d have ranked Day higher, but he withdrew from the WGC-Match Play because his mother is struggling with cancer and his mind is understandably not on golf. Some think Day is a bit too fragile physically and emotionally, but he did OK at Whistling Straits in 2015.
Adam Scott: He won twice last year and opened the 2016’17 season with five consecutive top-15 finishes. Scott already has one green jacket (2013).
Dark-horse pick: Marc Leishman. Because he can putt.