Democrats line up for comeback
Here’s a look at midterm races that give them hope of taking both chambers of Congress
THERESA - Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) should feel safe heading into this year’s elections: He’s a two-term incumbent in a rural-suburban district that hasn’t elected a Democrat since the 1960s. Donald Trump had a 17-percentage-point margin of victory here over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
But last year, Grothman told people he could face the “toughest race of my political career.” Fundraising lagged, and a potentially viable Democratic opponent — Dan Kohl, the nephew of former senator Herb Kohl — mounted a challenge.
At a town hall meeting in Theresa, a village about 40 miles north of Milwaukee, Grothman heard constituents fret over Social Security, immigration, the debt, farming and more — and some weren’t happy with the direction of a Republican-led Congress.
“The truth is, I’ve always been a Republican, but I’m starting to feel like the Republican Party does not represent me at all,” said Anne Rinzel, 57, who raises crops in nearby Lomira. She’s an advocate for the Affordable Care Act, saying it helped pay her daughter’s medical bills.
“There doesn’t seem to be any balance in Washington,” she said after the meeting. “It just flip-flops from two extremes.”
“The truth is, I’ve always been a Republican, but I’m starting to feel like the Republican Party does not represent me at all. There doesn’t seem to be any balance in Washington. It just flip-flops from two extremes.” Anne Rinzel, 57, who raises crops in Lomira
Another such flip may be coming. Across the nation, Democrats have appeared increasingly bullish on taking back one or both chambers of Congress, fueled by low approval numbers for President Donald Trump and high voter enthusiasm among their supporters.
Candidates line up to take on entrenched Republicans or vie for open seats not only in toss-up districts in California, New York or New Jersey — which Clinton won easily — but in areas Trump won by a comfortable margin, particularly in suburban enclaves or around university centers in the Midwest and elsewhere.
As more Republicans drop out — as House Appropriations Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen of New Jersey did in late January after 23 years in Congress — Democrats become more hopeful of winning not only toss-up elections but those in districts such as Wisconsin’s 6th, where victory has been out of reach.
‘Safe seats don’t stay safe’
“Normally, you’d think Grothman’s district is safe,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School Poll. “But when we see a real wave election, safe seats don’t stay safe.”
Keeping that in mind, the USA TODAY Network consulted voters, analysts and handicappers, academics and experts spread across 14 states to put together a list of bellwether races — campaigns that could indicate whether Democrats are riding a wave that could give them control of Congress.
Those races stretch from Southern California to Upstate New York, from a South Florida House race to statewide Senate races in Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. Some involve special elections — such as one in southwestern Pennsylvania scheduled for March 13 — in staunchly Republican districts.
To come up with the list, the USA TODAY Network looked at districts — such as Grothman’s in Wisconsin — where Democratic signs of life may indicate a sea change even if they don’t capture them.
Many see political newcomers, especially women and veterans, vying for seats.
Most are in areas where, if Trump won in 2016, he did so by a margin that Democrats or experts say they can overcome.
In many, Democrats appear to be in a position to compete. Consider:
In the 1st district in Iowa, represented by two-term Rep. Rod Blum, a
Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showed dismal approval ratings for Trump and a 47% to 29% edge for a generic Democrat. Four Democrats — including state Rep. Abby Finkenauer and former Labor Department official Thomas Heckroth — make up a potentially strong slate of challengers for Blum.
In Michigan’s 8th district outside Detroit, where Trump won with 51% to 44% for Clinton, Rep. Mike Bishop has drawn a Democratic field that includes a former assistant Defense secretary and intelligence officer, Elissa Slotkin, who served Democratic and Republican presidents, did three tours in Iraq and posted strong fundraising numbers, outraising Bishop in each of the past two quarters.
In Kentucky’s 6th district, where Trump won by 16 points, Rep. Andy Barr faces a Democratic field that includes the mayor of Lexington, a sitting state senator and a retired U.S. Marine lieutenant colonel and pilot, Amy McGrath, whose initial campaign video went viral as she walked down a runway where jets were lined up behind her, telling the camera, “Some are telling me a Democrat can’t win that battle in Kentucky. We’ll see about that.”
In New Jersey’s 11th district, where Trump eked out a 49% to 48% win over Clinton and Frelinghuysen stepped down, the Democratic slate includes Mikie Sherrill, a former federal prosecutor, Navy helicopter pilot and mother of four. Voter anger in the state over the tax overhaul bill — which Frelinghuysen rejected but his party embraced — runs high.
In the 1st district in southwestern Ohio, longtime Republican Rep. Steve Chabot drew a challenge in late January from Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval — who was courted by Democrats after beating another entrenched Republican for his job. Chabot served 14 years in Congress before getting knocked out of office in a Democratic wave in 2008, then regained the seat two years later. Trump won the district in 2016 by a 6-percentage-point margin.
A huge challenge
The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Democrats with a 6.5-percentage-point edge over Republicans on a nationwide generic ballot — a substantial margin but short of clear evidence of a building wave. Other polls have shown that margin narrowing and a slight improvement in Trump’s favorable ratings.
Even if the Democratic edge grows, retaking Congress is no small order. Winning the House of Representatives would mean flipping 24 seats held by Republicans. Flipping the Senate would mean retaining 26 seats held by Democrats or independent senators who caucus with them and picking up two more — a challenge even tougher than retaking the House.
Republicans count on a strong economy and the passage of the tax bill — which should mean fatter paychecks for many families — to buoy them and limit losses that normally happen to the party in power in a midterm election.
Democrats face headwinds from a midterm electorate that typically skews older, whiter and less urban — which could hurt their chances — and congressional district lines that have, in many states, been drawn to protect Republican officeholders.
“I think what you could say is (overall) midterm elections tend to not be particularly kind to Democrats. That’s true in the last two or three decades,” said Norm Ornstein, a congressional expert at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute.
Still, Ornstein said, Democrats should be bolstered by what they see, especially the ire Trump’s surprise election over Clinton engendered in some quarters and the enthusiasm with which candidates have lined up to take on Republicans.
Twenty-eight Republicans have either left Congress or announced their retirements, besides those who are running for higher office or left to join the Trump administration.