Marquette’s NCAA hopes may hinge on team sheet
It’s that time of year when college basketball fans start using the words “bubble” and “bracketology” in every conversation about the sport.
Marquette’s NCAA Tournament hopes are about as up in the air as they can be heading into the Big East tournament this week.
The seventh-seeded Golden Eagles (18-12, 9-9) face 10th-seeded DePaul (11-19, 4-14) in the first round at 8:30 p.m. Wednesday.
MU helped itself by getting a muchneeded 85-81 victory over Creighton in the regular-season finale on Saturday at the BMO Harris Bradley Center.
“It was a must-win,” Golden Eagles coach Steve Wojciechowski said. “The thing about March is its about mustwins. Survive and advance. One and done. Whatever cliché you want to use.
“Our team is still in must-win situations. That’s a privilege. Pressure is a privilege. There’s a lot of teams that are playing games that don’t really matter. Our games matter a lot. It’s a privilege to be in games that matter a lot.”
With MU needing every win it can get, Golden Eagles fans also should get ready to hear the words “team sheet” and “quadrants” more this week.
Most “bracketologists” have MU hovering on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
The tournament committee has changed the way it looks at teams this season. In recent years, the committee grouped teams based on Rating Percentage Index (RPI).
Now the members break down every team’s games into quadrants.
The reason for the change in grouping was to give more weight to victories on the road.
The committee does not take into account conference record or standings or how a team finished the season.
The NCAA makes every team sheet available. So let’s take a look at MU’s profile.
Quadrant 1: 4-7 (0-2 non-conference) — Games at home vs. teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI; neutral-court games vs. 1-50; road games vs. 1-75.
Quadrant 2: 4-3 (3-0 non-conference) — Home vs. 31-75; neutral vs. 51100; road vs. 76-135.
Quadrant 3: 4-2 (1-1 non-conference) — Home vs. 76-160; neutral vs. 101-200; road vs. 136-240.
Quadrant 4: 6-0 (5-0 non-conference) — Home vs. 161 and higher; neutral vs. 201 and higher; road vs. 241 and higher.
Each team sheet also lists six metrics at the top. Three of them are resultsbased (RPI, Kevin Pauga Index, Strength of Record) and three are predictive metrics (Basketball Power Index, Kenpom and Sagarin) that use how a team won or lost to forecast future outcomes.
Through Sunday’s results, MU’s average of the six metrics is ranked 48th (RPI: 57; KPI: 48; SOR: 41; BPI: 45; POM: 49; SAG: 48).
If all the numbers make your head hurt, the committee also will examine the quality of MU’s wins and losses.
Best win: The Golden Eagles beat Seton Hall, Creighton and Providence on the road for Quadrant 1 victories. MU’s other Quadrant 1 victory is over Seton Hall at home. The home victory over Creighton counts as a Quadrant 2 victory because the Bluejays are No. 35 in the RPI.
Worst loss: The non-conference loss to Georgia (82 in RPI) stings but nothing hurt MU worse than its road loss to DePaul (180 in RPI). A victory over the Blue Demons in that game and the Golden Eagles would probably be feeling pretty comfortable with their NCAA Tournament résumé.
So what does it all mean?
A loss to DePaul on Wednesday would probably sink MU.
A victory over the Blue Demons might not move the needle very much, but a win over Villanova (No. 2 in RPI) in the second round Thursday would likely lock MU into a bid.
If the Golden Eagles go 1-1 in the Big East tournament, they will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday with the other bubble teams.