Wisconsin's unemployment
Tight market not yet translating into ongoing wage growth, however
rate falls to a record 2.9%. More people have jobs than ever before, but wages are another story.
As labor markets tighten across the nation, Wisconsin’s estimated unemployment rate dipped below 3.0% in February for the first time to a record low of 2.9%, while the state also set a record for the total number of people employed.
Thursday’s report from the state Department of Workforce Development amounts to the second bullish headline in recent days on Wisconsin employment prospects. Last week, ManpowerGroup Inc. released its latest outlook survey showing a sharp increase in the number of Wisconsin employers planning to increase hiring in the upcoming April-June quarter — and that Wisconsin’s employment outlook is tied with New Hampshire in leading the nation in its projected job-creation forecast.
“Where I live in Mequon, you can’t go past a restaurant or retail establishment where there isn’t a ‘Help Wanted’ sign in the window,” said Mark Marcon, a Milwaukee-based labor market analyst at the R.W. Baird & Co. investment firm. “When you talk to certain companies, like staffing agencies, they are having a hard time finding people.”
The state’s previous record-low unemployment rate of 3.0% was reached in July 1999, when the nation was enjoying a tech-led economic boom — before the September 2001 terror attacks that unsettled the national economy and before the smartphone had been invented.
In January, the state unemployment rate was estimated at 3.1%.
In another employment milestone,
Wisconsin hit a record high in February for the number of people employed in the state, with 3,068,200 people employed, according to the Department of Workforce Development.
So far this year, Wisconsin’s jobless rate is strong by other national comparisons. Although comparable state-by-state figures for February aren’t due until Friday, the monthly rankings for January showed Wisconsin had the 11th-best unemployment rate among the 50 states.
At fourth-best in January, Iowa had the best unemployment rate in the Midwest. But Wisconsin’s index in January was better than its Midwest peers in Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio and Illinois.
As competition around the nation heats up for workers, officials in Wisconsin vowed to step up their job training efforts.
“We need to get every hand on deck right now,” said BJ Dernbach, assistant deputy secretary at the state workforce agency.
The nation has been adding jobs continuously since the employment downturn of 2008-’10 that resulted from the recession.
The national unemployment rate was estimated at 4.1% in February. Wisconsin’s unemployment rate consistently has trended below the national rate for more than 30 years.
Significantly, the tight national job market hasn’t yet translated into prolonged wage growth.
Many of the nation’s new jobs are in low-skill, lowwage sectors. But the unemployment rate, as it’s calculated in the United States, doesn’t measure wages, which can make it a somewhat misleading index. It equally counts people as employed regardless of whether they work part time at minimum wage or full time in jobs that pay handsomely.
Wages are rising, but only at a tepid pace, Marcon said. Some reasons: Well-paid baby boomers are retiring and being replaced by less-experienced millennials. Medical costs are rising and eating into pay levels. China and Mexico continue to undercut firstworld wage levels. And the “Amazon effect” keeps product prices under pressure as retailers compete to undercut each other.
“Is this a good time to look for a job?” Marcon said. “Absolutely.”
Thursday’s report is based on preliminary estimates from a monthly survey with sparse sample sizes and is subject to revision.
The state’s previous record-low unemployment rate of 3.0% was reached in July 1999, when the nation was enjoying a tech-led economic boom — before the September 2001 terror attacks that unsettled the national economy and before the smartphone had been invented.