Should Christian Yelich be MVP?
Manager Craig Counsell says the Brewers outfielder is doing ‘special things.’
The debate about what “most valuable” actually means when it comes to determining the most valuable player in each major league has been going on for years, but never more so than in the modern era of analytics.
Some think the award should go to the best player in each league, statistically speaking. And we’re talking the deep-dive numbers as well as traditional measures. Others believe the player also should be on a team competing for the postseason. Otherwise, how “valuable” could he be?
In the case of Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich, he qualifies this season on both counts, so that debate is pointless. He is statistically one of the top hitters in the National League, and his team is leading the wild-card race.
When there are several MVP contenders, and that certainly is the case this year in the NL, it can become a “what have you done lately” scenario for voters. In that regard, Yelich also fares quite well because he has been putting on a show down stretch as the Brewers fight for their first playoff berth in seven years.
“He’s doing special things,” Brewers manager Craig Counsell said. “This is what guys in this conversation do. They do special things throughout the year, and especially at this time of the year.
“The players that everybody are talking about are obviously deserving, and Christian is doing his thing for our team, for sure.”
Special things such as hitting for the cycle twice within a span of 20 days, and against the same team, no less, the Cincinnati Reds. Never mind that only two other major-leaguers had re-cycled in the same season since 1900.
While those achievements stick out like an MVP trophy, Yelich has been producing at a high level for some time now. Basically, he has been on fire since the all-star break, batting .356 with 20 home runs (his previous high for an entire season was 21), 50 runs batted in, a .415 onbase percentage, 1.140 on-base plus slugging and 163 total bases.
That second-half surge has put the lefty-swinging Yelich atop the NL batting race with a .319 average while also pushing him to the top with a .954 OPS and.569 slugging percentage. He ranks among the top 10 in several other categories, including runs scored (104, second), hits (173, fifth), OBP (.385, seventh), RBI (93, eighth) and total bases (309, fourth).
Yelich is the only player in the majors with the combination of a .300 batting average, 30 home runs, 90 RBI, 100 runs and 20 stolen bases. When you’re in a class of one, you’re having a pretty nice season.
Of Yelich’s somewhat surprising home run total, teammate Travis Shaw said, “I told him he could hit 30. He didn’t believe me. I knew our park played to his strengths. Just watching his BP, I could tell.
“He hits a lot of balls out to center and left-center. He got penalized in Miami for that.”
The cavernous dimensions of Marlins Park certainly didn’t help Yelich, who hit only seven home runs there last season. Nineteen of his 30 homers with the Brewers have come at Miller Park, where the ball carries much better, especially gap to gap, helping Yelich to a .627 slugging perthe
centage there.
Which begs the question: How much of Yelich’s production is tied to a better offensive environment at home, and how much is merely the evolution and maturation of a talented hitter just entering the prime of his career at age 26?
Of Yelich’s increased power production, Counsell said, “I think it’s just talent, and it’s experience. What I would say is Christian has developed the right way as a hitter. He was a hitter first, and then the power came second. That’s the ideal way, to me, to develop as a hitter and that’s what has kind of brought him to this point.
“Sometimes power is just picking your spots, what pitchers you can take a little chance against, taking a chance in a certain count. It’s being a better breaking-ball hitter over time as you see more breaking balls. That’s everything that’s kind of happened up to this point.
“I think for Christian, what’s been cool this year is he’s taken his game to another level. That’s what’s happened. He’s been a really good player, and he’s just taken it to the next level. I think as much as anything it’s just a product of the sweet spot of some experience in the league lining up and being in a good spot.”
Though Yelich played four-plus seasons in the majors before the Brewers traded four minor-league prospects for him, they figured him for anything but a finished product. They thought there was room for growth, particularly in a hitter-friendly venue, on a close-knit team and with an expected playoff race in the offing.
“I think we’re seeing the evolution of a really talented baseball player,” general manager David Stearns said. “He’s someone who, when we acquired him, we thought there was another step to his development. We didn’t know exactly how quickly it was going to come. It has come pretty quickly.
“The nice thing about it is it’s really happened organically. It’s a player who incrementally has gotten better throughout the course of his career. A player who has learned a lot about himself, and is unafraid to take those next steps forward.”
Which brings us back to the MVP race, and the crowded field of candidates. At various points of the second half, different players have sat in the favorite’s chair. If Yelich is going to lose the MVP race, it likely will be to Chicago infielder Javy Baéz, the best player on the NL’s best team, at present. Baéz leads the NL with 107 RBI and 79 extrabase hits, and ranks among the leaders with 33 homers, .897 OPS and .294 batting average.
Much like Yelich, Colorado shortstop Trevor Story lifted his club on his shoulders in the heat of the playoff race until suffering an elbow injury Monday night. Story went on a late-season power binge to get to a career-high 33 home runs with 102 RBI, .550 slugging and .894 OPS.
Story isn’t even the best player on his team. That honor goes to third baseman Nolan Arenado, a perennial MVP candidate having another big year. Arenado is batting .294 with 34 homers, 101 RBI and .923 OPS, while once again playing Gold Glove defense at the hot corner.
Yelich isn’t the only candidate who turned on the jets in the second half of the season. Matt Carpenter did likewise, going on a home-run binge that elevated him to the level of the top sluggers in the league. He compiled a 1.222 OPS in July and .984 in August, and leads the NL with 35 homers to go with a .917 OPS, but he cooled off considerably in September and lacks the across-the-board elite numbers of the other candidates.
Another player mentioned in MVP talk is Yelich’s outfield teammate, Lorenzo Cain, and he indeed has been a steady force for the Brewers, at the plate and in the field. Cain’s candidacy is based more on his 5.4 WAR (wins above replacement) and “fancy” stats such as 121 OPS+, 126 wRC+ and .363 wOBA, rather than traditional numbers such as 10 homers, 37 RBI (Cain has been more of a table-setter) and .821 OPS. Some have wondered if Cain would siphon votes away from Yelich, but Yelich has risen to the top in MVP candidacy on his team.
Others such as Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt and Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman deserve seats at the MVP table but will have to wait to be served. Another of Yelich’s teammates, Jesús Aguilar, ranks among the NL’s best with 33 homers and 103 RBI but fell off offensively in the second half and doesn’t have the depth of numbers required of an MVP.
At this point, many believe the award is a two-man race between Baéz and Yelich, though there is no consensus on who is the favorite at this late stage.
“The guys that everybody are talking about are the right guys,” Counsell said. “I do think probably what some of the other numbers have told us is we’re now able to put a value on some of the other things. The basic numbers still tell you something here.
“I don’t know if there’s a metric for versatility but it is incredibly valuable. For Christian and a guy like Báez, guys playing multiple positions, it’s really valuable for a team. Where that falls in MVP discussions, I’m not sure. But I know when you have guys that can play multiple positions, it’s a big plus for the team.”
Yelich’s teammates obviously are biased, especially when watching him play on a daily basis. But there is definite hope inside the clubhouse that the Brewers will have their first MVP since Ryan Braun in 2011.
“Personally, I think it’s going to be him or Baéz,” Shaw said. “Christian has had some MVP moments in this last month that people will remember. I think he should be the favorite. He has done everything for this team.”