Will 2020 turnout go through roof?

Experts say polarizing president has potential to energize voters on both sides

Fifteen years ago, a polarizing president, a political climate of emotion and division, and an all-out war for Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes lit a fire under this state’s voters, driving turnout here to a level we’d never seen before — and haven’t since. Could it happen again?

The presidency of Donald Trump is shaping up as a spectacular mobilizing force for both the right and the left.

One national expert, political scientist Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, says 2020 has the potential to be a “100-year storm” for turnout, largely because Trump “inflames passions.”

Now consider what that might look like in Wisconsin, which has a history of high turnouts to begin with, which experienced its highest mid-term turnout in at least 70 years last year, and which is about to find itself at the white-hot center of the next presidential campaign.

“We should expect exceptional voter turnout in Wisconsin in 2020,” says University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientist Barry Burden, another turnout expert.

We have already seen ample evidence in the past two years that the Trump presidency engages, ignites and activates voters on both sides.

Nationally, the 2018 election saw the highest mid-term turnout in more than a century. In Wisconsin, almost 62% of eligible voters went to the polls last fall, a level rarely reached by any state in a modern-day mid-term election — and higher than the nationwide turnout for president in 2016. Turnout this past April was one of the highest ever in a Wisconsin Supreme Court race.

In polling by the Marquette Law School this year, about two-thirds of voters say they follow what’s going on in politics “most of the time.” That number has never been higher in a non-election year in Marquette’s seven-plus years of Wisconsin polling. Marquette’s surveys show interest in politics reaching a high level during the 2012 presidential campaign, dropping to a lower level from 2013 through 2016 (during Barack Obama’s second term), then rising again since Trump took office.

“We have a strong case that Wisconsin voters are paying more attention in the Trump era,” says Marquette pollster Charles Franklin.

The highest turnouts Wisconsin has seen in the modern era occurred in 1992 (69.9% ), 2000 (67.6%), 2004 (74.8%), 2008 (72.4%), 2012 (72.9%) and 2016 (69.5%), using McDonald’s data for the percentage of all eligible voters casting a vote for president.

In recent interviews, strategists and pollsters in Wisconsin on both sides said they believed turnout in 2020 would exceed 2016, when both presidential nominees were unusually unpopular, and turnout was down from the three previous presidential races.

Beyond that, opinions differed on how high it could go. Some strategists were cautious about forecasting extreme turnouts, noting that one condition that often accompanies high turnout — a bad economy — is absent right now. But all agreed that support and opposition to Trump is a strong driver of turnout, and that the kind of emotion that fuels turnout is widespread.

Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said he expects turnout to be “as high as humanly possible.”

Mark Jefferson, director of the state GOP, said, “I expect turnout to be exceptionally high in 2020,” adding, “In 2016 it seemed as though Democrats didn’t think they could lose. And in 2018, despite the warnings, it seems a lot of Republicans felt we would not lose. In 2020, I think both sides recognize anything could happen and will be energized.”

Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork said her party will pour resources into Wisconsin in 2020, something it failed to do in 2016.

“Whoever the Democratic nominee is going to be is going to invest a lot of time, energy and money into Wisconsin, unlike in 2016,” she said.

The decision by Democrats to hold their national convention in Milwaukee July 13-16 of 2020 reflects their party’s renewed focus on the state and region. Bjork said one side-effect of placing the convention here will be to generate a volunteer convention work force in the thousands — people that will then be available to help get out the vote in the fall.

“If you were to tell me in July (of 2020) we’re going to have a group of 15,000 to 20,000 volunteers actively trained and engaged and enthused about (their party’s convention), I would say, ‘Wow, we’re going to be able to do lot more (voter) engagement'” in the fall, said Bjork.

On the other side, Trump as the incumbent has the time and resources to build a far more potent organization and field effort than he did as an outsider candidate slapping together a campaign in 2016.

The highest turnout this state has ever recorded came in 2004, the election that pitted Republican President George W. Bush against Democrat John Kerry. The state of Wisconsin measured turnout at 73.2% of voting-age adults. McDonald measured it at 74.8% of eligible voters (not all votingage adults are citizens or legal voters, so taking votes cast as a share of the smaller population of eligible voter results in a higher turnout rate).

Wisconsin’s 2004 turnout was truly remarkable. Since 1980, it has only ever been exceeded by just one state, Minnesota, which recorded higher turnouts in 2004, 2008 and 2012. (The all-time modern record is Minnesota’s 78.4% turnout in 2004).

What conditions were in place to produce Wisconsin’s peak turnout in 2004?

One was a close national election stoked by intense emotion.

“There were the Iraq and Afghanistan wars … it was the very first presidential election since 9/ 11. There was a lot of raw emotion there,” said Mark Graul, who ran the Bush re-election effort in Wisconsin.

Graul cites another major ingredient, Wisconsin’s status as a topfive electoral target, resulting in a “non-stop relentless presence” by the candidates, their running mates, and their highprofile surrogates, along with saturation TV advertising and well-funded get-out-the-vote efforts. All of that generated massive media coverage and a sense among voters that their state was crucial and their votes mattered.

These factors should be present in 2020 — fierce political emotions surrounding Trump, and a maximum campaign effort by both sides.

Franklin cites another parallel. The 2004 election was preceded by a razor-thin 2000 contest, both in Wisconsin and nationally. In that race, the results of the popular vote and the Electoral College diverged.

“You see a close race decided unexpectedly. You spend four years talking about how elections have consequences,” said Franklin. “It’s the perfect machine to gin up turnout.”

The same is true of 2020, which follows a contest in 2016 in which Wisconsin was a closely decided and pivotal state, and in which the popular vote and Electoral College vote diverged.

Nationally, McDonald says he thinks turnout could be as high as twothirds of eligible voters, which would be the highest since 1908.

Burden, the Wisconsin professor, says that based on history and current trends, it’s possible Wisconsin next year “will approach the highest turnout rates achieved by any state in the current era.”

Which side would benefit from extreme turnout is a question for another day. Wisconsin has now seen “jump ball” presidential elections under very different turnout scenarios, from 2000 (roughly 68% turnout) to 2004 (75%) to 2016 (70%). It seems almost certain that winning Wisconsin in 2020 will require getting more votes than Trump won in the last campaign.

Whatever happens in this state, one thing we will probably not be lamenting come November in 2020 is an apathetic or lazy electorate.