Tom Haudricourt
Will Brewers return to playoffs? Five reasons to believe, 5 to doubt.
What are the Milwaukee Brewers’ chances of making another secondhalf run and returning to postseason play?
That question is not only on the minds of the team’s fans as the second half begins Friday night, it’s also what the Brewers’ decision-makers are pondering. The manner in which the team staggered into the all-star break, losing 15 of its last 23 games, certainly didn’t inspire an abundance of confidence.
“I think we’ve had some really positive moments (in the first half), and we’ve had some real inconsistency,” general manager David Stearns said Sunday as the team wrapped up play before the break with consecutive losses in Pittsburgh, closing a 2-5 trip.
“I think we’re all aware that, going into the second half, we have to play better if we want to accomplish ultimately what we’re here to do. There’s no hiding from that. I don’t think that surprises anyone. We’re certainly well aware of that, and I still have a lot of confidence and trust in this group.”
How justified is that confidence, you ask? Here’s a look at five reasons for optimism and five reasons for pessimism as the Brewers prepare to kick off the second half against San Francisco on Friday night at Miller Park:
5 Reasons to Believe
1. Christian Yelich
Any team with the 2018 NL most valuable player on its side has a
fighting chance because he has proven to be a difference maker since coming to the Brewers before last season. If you didn’t think he could keep up the pace set during his amazing second half in ’18, you were wrong. Yelich continues to be one of the most dynamic offensive players in the game, leading the majors with 31 home runs to go with a .329 batting average, .433 OBP, .707 slugging percentage, 118 OPS+ and 67 RBI.
The Brewers rode Yelich’s coattails to the NL Central crown in the second half of last season. Maybe he’ll provide more jet propulsion this year. He seems to only have two gears these days: Great and Superhuman.
2. Central up for grabs
Well, if nobody else wants to take charge in the NL Central, why not the Brewers? How close was the division at the all-star break? The fifth-place Reds were 41⁄2 games out (three in the loss column), closer than any second-place team in the other five divisions in the majors. Everybody keeps waiting for the talent-laden Cubs to get going, but thus far, they have spun their wheels like everyone else. The Brewers are 24-18 in games within the division, a good sign.
“There’s parity in the division,” Stearns said. “That means every single game within the division is really tough and really competitive, as we’ve seen. Frankly, it probably means that some teams in this division haven’t played as well as we expected them to play. And when you have that, you generally have some bunching, and that’s that we’ve seen this year.”
3. Room for improvement
The Brewers had five all-stars, representing 20% of their major-league roster. That means many of those comprising the other 80% didn’t pull their weight in the first half. The biggest offenders, offensively, were third baseman Travis Shaw, now in the minors, first baseman Jesús Aguilar, who played his way onto the bench, and centerfielder Lorenzo Cain, whose on-base percentage dropped 86 points from last season. But many of the pitchers struggled as well, both in the rotation and bullpen.
“I think that's where we have to get, of the 25 guys, as many as we can contributing,” manager Craig Counsell said. “It doesn't have to be the same guy; it's got to be different guys. That's how you put together (winning) streaks.”
4. Trades are likely
Team principal owner Mark Attanasio has shown he will make resources available to add talent at the trade deadline, if the team is in a contending position. He did so last season with the likes of Mike Moustakas, Joakim Soria, Gio Gonzalez and Jonathan Schoop (OK, that one didn’t work, but you get the idea). The difference this time around is there is only one trade deadline, July 31, with the former non-waiver deadline of Aug. 31 no longer a thing.
“I’d say we’re always motivated to try and improve the team this time of year,” Stearns said. “We’re still in evaluative mode a little bit. It has been an inconsistent first half, and I think we’re still making sure we fully understand what we have here. And then we’ll look to make the appropriate decisions from an external standpoint.”
5. Home, sweet home
As is the case with most teams, the Brewers have been much more successful at home, with a 27-18 record, compared to 20-26 on the road. And they play 12 of their first 16 games after the break at Miller Park, providing an opportunity to gain some traction and reverse the long slide of recent weeks. Those four home series are against the Giants, Braves, Reds and Cubs, the latter three of which are in contending mode, so the Brewers will have to get their act together to take advantage of that schedule. After that stretch comes a long trip to Oakland, Chicago and Pittsburgh, which will be daunting. We should know a lot more by the end of the month about the Brewers’ chances of another division title.
5 Reasons to Doubt
1. Rotation roulette
The Brewers’ starting rotation has been in flux since the early weeks of the season and has not performed to a playoff-caliber level. The starting pitchers have compiled a 4.82 earned-run average, ranking 12th among the 15 NL clubs. Only the Pirates are worse (4.90) in the division, and their rotation has been wracked by injuries. This is one of the reasons Stearns is on the hunt for starting pitching help before the trade deadline, but that’s always the most-expensive commodity on the market, in terms of prospects sent in return. The return of Gonzalez from injury in the coming weeks might help, and Jhoulys Chacín showed signs of getting headed in the right direction before the break, so there is hope for internal improvement.
2. Hader needs help
The Brewers were one of the top “bullpening” teams in the majors last season for one obvious reason: they had three strikeout studs at the back of the pen in Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel. But Knebel was lost for the year in spring training when he underwent Tommy John surgery, and Jeffress has not been the same (3.82 ERA in 32 games) after a heavy workload last season (career-high 73 appearances). The Brewers are 42-0 when leading after eight innings because Hader remains a force of nature with videogame strikeout totals, but he needs some help in protecting leads. Various arms promoted from the minors have not performed well.
3. Home runs or bust
Yes, everybody is more reliant on home runs during the “launch angle revolution” but the Brewers remain too much so. They went 23 consecutive innings without scoring a run on their last trip to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh because the home runs dried up for a spell, and they were unable to manufacture runs.
The Brewers lead the NL with 155 home runs, which is a good thing. But they are dead-last with a .237 batting average with runners in scoring position, which is a bad thing. And it’s the reason they rank only eighth in runs scored in the NL with 432. The Brewers are leaving far too many runners in scoring position, putting too much pressure on a struggling pitching staff. This team was built for offense and too often it has fallen short of the mark.
"I don't think the problem is too many home runs," Stearns said. "The home run is the single-best thing you can do when you're a batter. So, the fact that we hit a lot of home runs is a good thing and actually portends really good things for our offense. There are certain things around those home runs we can do better. The more runners you have on base in front of home-run hitters is going to be helpful, and that's an area where we haven't done as well as we can. We just need to be better in those other skills in getting on base so that when we do hit for power and hit home runs, we're cashing in big innings."
4. Yet to get really hot
Teams that go to the playoffs usually have several hot stretches throughout the season. After a 1-1 start, the Brewers won six in a row to begin the season with a 7-1 record. They won six more in a row in early May to boost their record at the time to 23-16.
Since that date, May 8, the Brewers have gone 24-28. After posting a 17-14 record in March/April, the Brewers went 15-12 in May, 13-13 in June and now are 2-5 in July. In other words, they are not trending in the right direction. That, of course, can change, as it did in a big way during the second half of last season. If it doesn’t, there will be no October baseball.
“The optimism is there's 75, 80 games left and you're sitting right with everybody else,” Counsell said. “That's a great reason to be optimistic. But, at the same time. we've gone through a little stretch here where we haven't been able to build any momentum, haven't strung together a lot.”
5. Difficult schedule in September The schedule set up perfectly last September for the Brewers to make a late charge. They had every Thursday off, and with expanded rosters, that allowed Counsell to remove his starting pitchers early and “bullpen” the heck out of games. Accordingly, they went 20-7 in September/October, reeling in the Cubs and forcing a Game No. 163 for the NL Central crown, which they won at Wrigley Field.
This season, the September schedule does not look nearly as forgiving. There are only two off days – Wednesday, the 4th, and Monday, the 23rd. In between, the Brewers will play 18 games in a row without a break. There are two trips that will test them as well – the first to Miami and St. Louis, and the second to Cincinnati and Colorado on the final week of the season. The month begins with a homestand against Houston and the Cubs, which certainly won't be easy.