Rodgers offsets misses with clutch completions
Dan Orlovsky had one of the most insightful post-NFL-game tweets Sunday night, at least concerning the Green Bay Packers.
The former NFL backup quarterback, now an ESPN football analyst, re-watched the game video of the Packers’ 23-20 win over the Detroit Lions, and it changed his mind about what he saw of Aaron Rodgers while watching the game live on television.
“Everyone thinks he played bad today (I did watching in moment),” Orlovsky tweeted in part. “He had 8. EIGHT-absolutely insane/elite/ridiculous throws today.
“-- close misses can be made plays quickly.”
Defending Rodgers (72.0 rating, under 50% completion rate) for his play Sunday surely will rile up the “Rodgers is no good anymore” crowd. Others just as surely will dismiss this column and ask indignantly, “Why are you giving Rodgers a pass?” But Orlovsky is right.
That’s not to absolve Rodgers of responsibility for the Packers’ horrendous first half against the Lions, or to say he’s the same player he was a few years. He has obviously lost athleticism. His eyebrow-raising inaccuracy in the first 30 minutes Sunday, combined with the more-than
usual misfires in the second half of the season overall, do make you wonder if Rodgers' broken right collarbone in 2017 has affected his throwing.
There's also reason to question all the deep shots he took against the Lions on Sunday, and has been taking on third downs all year. We'll get to that later.
But this notion that Rodgers is just an average or barely above-average starting quarterback now, or because he's not as good as he was that he's not worth his $33.5 million salary, is nonsense.
Put it this way: If you're down 17-3 coming out to start the second half, and — this is important — you have the Packers' disappointing receiving corps, who else would you rather have at quarterback? Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, maybe Drew Brees. We'd say Lamar Jackson, though it's hard seeing him ever being down 17-3 with the way he's playing this year, no matter who his receivers are. That's about it.
The fact is, the Packers have shown they can win with Rodgers putting up 72.0 passer ratings, as he did against the Lions, and a 7.0-yards per attempt for the season, which he has this year (tying his career low as a starter).
It's true that re-watching Sunday's game video with a cold, hard eye, you come away astonished that, for instance, Rodgers twice avoided the pass rush only to overshoot by a whisker an open Aaron Jones going up the sidelines — one that would have been a big gainer, the other a 14-yard touchdown. He also was just long on a deep ball to Davante Adams matched against inside linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin early in the fourth quarter, and a couple plays later on third down threw just behind Robert Tonyan, which allowed the pass to be broken up. At his best, Rodgers might miss one of those throws.
But you also saw the limitations of his receiving corps. Jimmy Graham dropping a big gainer on the Packers' first play, Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropping a ball only slightly behind him that cost the Packers a shot at a field goal, and Jake Kumerow drifting back instead of attacking an underthrown deep ball that was intercepted late in the game.
As Orlovsky said, Rodgers also made several great throws. None stood out more than his 28-yard touchdown pass to Allen Lazard that tied the game with 5:19 to play, and the screen pass to Jones that went for 31 yards and set up the game-winning score.
On the one to Lazard, which came on a third-and-10, Rodgers got a pass off just before getting hit from behind by defensive end Romeo Okwara that was pinpoint — a high ball that the 6-foot-5 Lazard could get to but 6-0 cornerback Darius Slay had no chance at.
The screen was one of the Packers' plays of the season. With the intentionally unblocked Okwara taking a free run at him, Rodgers had to scramble to his right and while on the run threw a sidearm dart basically behind the helmet of defensive end Trey Flowers, who was trying to disrupt the screen. In real time it looked like Rodgers was throwing the ball in the dirt, but in fact he put the ball right in Jones' stomach, and the running back turned it into a big play.
True, the number of deep shots Rodgers took Sunday was eyebrow-raising. By our count, he went deep eight times with only one completion (a 33yarder to Adams) and an interception. That's not much bang for the buck.
Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur said it was part of the plan because of the Lions' tendency to sit at the first-down marker. Criticizing game planning can be risky, because coaching staffs have terabytes of information on tendencies and players that outside observers don't, and you never know what they're thinking in the short and long term with their plans.
But considering the Packers' shortcomings at receiver — we certainly thought Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison would improve more than they have this year — you do wonder if taking all those deep shots is the best approach for this team, whether that's LaFleur's decision in setting the game plan or Rodgers' on the field.
Regardless, Rodgers' numbers — he ranks No. 12 in passer rating (95.4) and No. 18 in QBR (53.5) — suggest he's not among the NFL's best quarterbacks anymore. He clearly isn't the scrambler he once was, and his accuracy has slipped the second half of the year.
But he's now playing with a team that has a decent defense (No. 9 in fewest points allowed) and an excellent running back (Jones), so he doesn't have to carry it like he did in the past. And he's still more than capable of making great plays that win games.
On the line
The Packers' offensive line is playing at an elite level late this season and discovered it has good depth Sunday with the play of backups Lucas Patrick and recently signed Jared Veldheer.
Patrick replaced center Corey Linsley (back) in the second quarter, and Veldheer replaced Bulaga (concussion) in the fourth quarter. Both performed well.
There was no noticeable drop-off in play from Linsley to Patrick. Illustrative was an inside zone run on a secondand-1 in the fourth quarter, when Patrick briefly doubled up on the nose tackle, then got out to linebacker Steve Longa to clear the way for a 6-yard run by Jones.
Veldheer, the 32-year-old who came out of retirement in late November, pass protected well while usually going against the Lions' best outside rusher, Trey Flowers, and is an upgrade at backup tackle from second-year pro Alex Light. The Packers have to feel better about their ability to withstand an injury or two on the offensive line in the playoffs.
Extra points
» With the margin of error shrinking against good teams in the playoffs, the Packers can not afford to give away three points like they did at the end of the first half against Detroit. With only 20 seconds left and at their own 25, the Lions were happy to take their 14-3 lead into halftime, but then their first-down draw to Kerryon Johnson ruptured into a 40-yard run that set up a field goal. The main culprit on the play appeared to be rookie safety Darnell Savage, who whiffed on the tackle about 8 yards down the field, after Johnson cleared the initial hole.
» Cornerback Kevin King continues to be a good perimeter defender because of his tackling in the short passing and outside run games. He has a slender build at 6-3 and 200 pounds, but he's a willing and physical tackler.