Finding a major flaw in the system
Packers’ use of safety at nickel LB exposed
In a two-part series, Tom Silverstein looks at the numbers behind a remarkable 2019 Green Bay Packers season and what needs to be done for improvement in 2020. In Part 1, the Packers’ offense was broken down using statistics the Milwaukee Jour
nal Sentinel compiled over the 2019 season. In Part 2, we look at the defense and special teams.
GREEN BAY - It’s possible to look at San Francisco’s domination on the ground in the NFC championship game (285 yards) as an aberration, but really there were signs it was coming.
Coordinator Mike Pettine’s defense allowed 171 yards rushing against Detroit in Week 17 and 121 yards rushing against Washington in Week 14. For the season, the Packers allowed 100 or more yards rushing in 12 of their 18 games.
By ranking, they had the worst run defense of any team in the NFC North (23rd).
Pettine seemed to be on the cutting edge with his use of a safety at nickel linebacker, but it may be that it is no longer sustainable. It hurt him that he didn’t have a competent, athletic linebacker to play alongside Blake Martinez and undoubtedly influenced his decision-making.
Pettine played with five or more
defensive backs about 77% of the time, which is down slightly from 81% in 2018, but when league numbers are calculated probably will be in the top third again. Against power-running teams such as San Francisco, Minnesota, Seattle, Dallas and Philadelphia, replacing an inside linebacker with a safety isn’t ideal.
In ’19, the Packers allowed 48 runs of 10 or more yards and more than half (24) occurred when Martinez was the lone inside linebacker. A total of 27 of them occurred on first down, 15 on second down and six on third down.
Ideally, Pettine would have been able to use Oren Burks with Martinez, but the physically exceptional Burks has been a bust on defense and may wind up being just a special teams player. With Martinez a free agent, general manager Brian Gutekunst may need to sign and/ or draft three inside linebackers this offseason.
As the 49ers’ young linebackers corps showed, you can win with multiple undersized athletic players if you have a good front four.
Clark a cornerstone
In his third year, nose tackle Kenny Clark improved tremendously as a pass rusher and saw his percentage of snaps jump slightly because he was used so often in the nickel and dime packages.
Clark had a career-high six sacks and finished just ahead of Preston Smith for second place on the team in quarterback pressures. He ranked second to Za’Darius Smith (five) in tackles for loss with 41⁄2 and had three quarterback knockdowns.
He finished second on the team in tackles with 89.
The Packers didn’t get near the production they expected out of linemen Dean Lowry and Tyler Lancaster (11⁄2 sacks, two quarterback knockdowns, 13 pressures combined) and got almost nothing out of Montravius Adams.
Rookie Kingsley Keke showed a lot of potential and could be a starter next season. He had 14 tackles in just 109 snaps, which is a higher percentage of tackles per snap than Clark and Za’Darius Smith. Gutekunst would do well to find a massive run-stuffer who can free
Clark to play in multiple positions.
The gold standard
It’s going to be hard for Za’Darius Smith to match what he did in his first year with the Packers. He was a human wrecking ball and teams that face the Packers next season will spend a lot of time trying to figure out how to neutralize him.
Smith’s impact rushing the passer lowered the percentage of players Pettine needed to blitz to get pressure on the quarterback, allowed him to dictate blocking schemes and made it hard on opponents in the red zone because the quarterback couldn’t hold the ball waiting for someone to get open in tight quarters.
Pettine started using him as a standup nose tackle in Week 13 and employed him about 35 times there. He had two sacks and two quarterback hits out of that personnel grouping.
Smith had an astonishing 24 quarterback knockdowns, 151⁄2 sacks and 34 pressures in 18 games.
The most knockdowns Clay Matthews had in a regular season was 19 in 2011, and he had only six sacks that season. Smith also led the team with five tackles for loss.
The fifth-year pro played 83.4% of the regular-season snaps and 90.7% of the playoff snaps and never missed a practice.
The 49ers took advantage of Smith’s aggressiveness with trap and counter run plays, limiting him to five tackles. It’s something he can expect to see more of next season when he will be a marked man.
Taking the next step
Although he gave up a team-high six touchdown passes, cornerback Jaire Alexander showed he could compete on a weekly basis against the opponents’ best receivers. A couple of them (Detroit’s Kenny Golladay and Dallas’ Amari Cooper) got the best of him, but he never backed down from a challenge.
One of the most impressive parts of Alexander’s game was that he committed only two coverage penalties, and one of those occurred when he fell down and tackled the receiver before the ball got there, saving a sure touchdown. When he gets beat, he doesn’t overcompensate the next play.
Though Alexander never shies away from tackles, he still missed too many (11). He was not the worst offender, however.
Fellow corner Kevin King missed on a higher percentage basis (15 misses on 76 attempts compared to Alexander’s 12 on 86 attempts).
Rookie safety Darnell Savage had 13 misses on 85 attempts while learning a tough lesson about proper angles and overaggressiveness. Veteran Adrian Amos missed three of his eight tackles after injuring his chest in the Seattle playoff game.
Backing off the blitz
As mentioned earlier, Pettine did not have to send more than four rushers near as often as a year ago when he couldn’t generate pressure with his front four.
In 2018, he rushed four or more around 30% of the time; in ’19 it was down to 18%.
It helps when you have three active rushers like Za’Darius and Preston Smith and Clark. The three of them combined for 361⁄2 sacks and 43 quarterback hits in 18 games.
The secondary had only two sacks, one each by Amos and King.
Scramble drill
Until the Packers faced Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson in the playoffs, they did a pretty good job against scrambles.
Wilson got loose seven times for 63 yards (five first downs) with a long run of 22 yards. Before that, the Packers had allowed opposing quarterbacks 134 yards on 25 scrambles (nine first downs) with a long run of 14 by Dallas’ Dak Prescott.
They also forced two fumbles, one of which was lost. It wound up being a turning point in the Oakland game because Derek Carr was on his way to scoring when Martinez knocked the ball out of his arms and into the end zone for a touchback.
Hang time drop
The way the season started for second-year punter JK Scott, no one would have been surprised if he were named team MVP by the time the year ended.
Scott punted nine times against Chicago in the opener and averaged 47.6 yards gross and 43.6 net while landing five inside the 20. His control of field position was a major reason why the Packers won coach Matt LaFleur’s first game.
His average hang time on those punts was 4.43 seconds.
Scott continued to punt well in the first half of the season, averaging a whopping 4.87 seconds of hang time at Dallas in Week 5 and 4.69 seconds vs. Oakland at Lambeau Field in Week 7. He was averaging 49.2 yards per punt heading into the halfway point of the season.
Starting with Kansas City in Week 8, he started to slump. His averages for the next four weeks were 35.3, 37.6, 35.3 and 37.2. His average hang times were, 4.6, 4.08, 4.16 and 4.45, respectively.
As the weather got worse, so did his punting. It’s not a surprise that occurred but the rate of drop in hang time and distance was noticeable especially compared to what he did indoors at Minnesota (4.7 hang) and at Detroit (4.51).
Outdoors in the playoffs he averaged 4.26 and 4.0.
For the season, he ranked 28th in gross average (44.0) and 24th in net average (39.9) with an average hang time of 4.39 seconds. Scott will have to avoid midseason slumps and navigate poor weather conditions better in the future if he is going to be the force the Packers expect him to be.