Brees may be setting stage for Rodgers
GREEN BAY - At some point all the smart and innovative training in the world won't be enough to keep a 40plus-year-old quarterback in the NFL.
We'll find out in the coming weeks whether Drew Brees has hit that point.
Brees and Tom Brady are setting a new bar for how long quarterbacks can play at an elite level — a bar Aaron Rodgers has suggested he wants to pursue as he closes in on 40. But Brees' waning downfield throwing in recent seasons and shaky performance the final three quarters last Sunday night at Las Vegas have raised the red flag about whether the ceiling for him is age 41.
“I don't care if he had his No. 1 receiver (i.e., injured Michael Thomas) there last week or not, it was bad,” said a longtime front-office executive for an NFC team who watched the game. “It was like Tom Brady's first one (at Tampa Bay). Sailing balls, (throws) behind (the receiver), bad decisions, throwing interceptions. Everybody is killing (Brees), all of a sudden he can't play. I disagree with that, he's going to finish the season strong. But you can see some things are starting to deteriorate.”
The Packers will get an up-close look Sunday night in New Orleans, when Brees and Rodgers face off for fifth time in their careers — they're 2-2 — but the first since 2014. Six years after that matchup, Brees at 41 is the second-oldest player in the NFL, behind only Brady (43), and Rodgers at 36 is the sixth-oldest starting quarterback in the league, and one of seven age 35 or older.
That Brees has lasted this long as a winning quarterback is a testament to his drive, discipline and attention to detail. He's always had a good NFL arm not a great one, with accuracy and a quick release being his calling card. But he's also forged a sure first-ballot Hall of Fame career since undergoing major surgery on his throwing shoulder 15 years ago. In January 2006 he had a torn labrum and rotator cuff repaired, and since then he has worked maniacally on maintaining shoulder strength and honing his throwing motion, including working extensively every offseason with throwing guru Tom House.
That injury figures to eventually end his career, perhaps as soon as after this season, much like Peyton Manning's arm issues (because of a neck injury) ended his career. There are plenty of stats online cited as evidence of Brees' declining arm strength in recent years, but maybe the most telling are these from The Athletic's Jeff Duncan: The distance of Brees' average throw dropped below 8 yards in 2017 and has not surpassed that since, and Brees has only one completion of longer than 24 yards in the air in the Saints' past three playoff losses combined.
Brees and House have worked meticulously to maintain his throwing arm, as Duncan documented in August. This past offseason that included firing 1- and 2-pound balls into a net for strength, throwing youth footballs to maintain arm speed, and emphasizing leg and core training as well.
Yet, in two games this season Brees has only two passes that have traveled more than 20 yards in the air. It could be just circumstance, but the real question isn't whether Brees' arm strength has diminished, it's how much.
“He didn't look very good (last week),” the aforementioned scout said.
Boding well for Rodgers' longevity, on the other hand, is that he has a great throwing arm by NFL standards. And while he sustained a broken collarbone on his throwing side in 2017, he didn't injure his shoulder. He appears to be throwing the ball as well as ever to start this season, and is likely to be able to into his 40s unless he hurts his arm. Brett Favre, for instance, threw the ball almost as hard as ever when he retired, but it was the rest of his body that gave
Tom Silverstein of the Journal Sentinel staff picks the NFL winners for Week 3:
Point spread Saints by 3 Steelers by 4 Titans by 3 Eagle by 41⁄2 Falcons by 31⁄2 Browns by 7 Patriots by 51⁄2 Bills by 2 49ers by 31⁄2 Colts by 111⁄2 Chargers by 61⁄2 Buccaneers by 51⁄2 Cardinals by 51⁄2 Seahawks by 41⁄2 Ravens by 31⁄2
Straight up Packers Steelers Titans Eagles Falcons Browns Patriots Bills 49ers Colts Chargers Buccaneers Cardinals Seahawks Chiefs 15-1 23-9
vs. spread Packers Steelers Titans Eagles Falcons Washington Raiders Bills Giants Colts Chargers Buccaneers Cardinals Seahawks Chiefs
10-6 16-14-2
said. “He's talking to me about hand placement on different balls.
“I think he dropped one in practice early in camp, and he was asking me if he should have had his pinkies together versus the diamond, catching the ball like this. That type of attention to detail from anybody is amazing, let alone a running back.”
Sure enough, Jones showed he was paying attention when he ran another deep route and read that he was covered and would have to fight for the ball. He leaped up with both hands and was first to the ball, hauling it in for a 30-yard reception.
“He's got such large hands and the adjustments that he makes even sometimes in practice are like, man, this guy's a running back and he's able to contort his body in certain ways and find the football,” running backs coach Ben Sirmans said. “He's got hands like a wide receiver. And I think that's one of the things that gives us a great advantage.”
Those kinds of plays make teams respect him as a receiver and decide whether to play with an extra cornerback in case he lines up wide. If they do add a corner, the Packers have an advantage if they choose to run the ball since either a linebacker or defensive lineman is pulled off the field to account out. Brady's exceptional throwing arm also is holding up well enough at 43.
“Mobility, that's what goes,” another scout said.
The Packers are also trying to help Rodgers' longevity, or at least the quality of his later seasons, by building their offense around the run game more than around high-end receiving weapons. General manager Brian Gutekunst's drafting of running back AJ Dillon in the second round and tight end/fullback Josiah Deguara in the third signaled the degree to which the Packers are committed to coach Matt LaFleur's outside zone running scheme. Two weeks into the 2020 season the Packers have looked like a different team in Year 2 in LaFleur's offense.
Two games do not a season make, but Rodgers is off to a great start (119.4 rating), and the Packers have put up 76 offensive points and 1,010 yards. Playing in a similar scheme and with a similar approach did wonders for John Elway in his final two seasons with Denver.
Michael Joyner, a doctor at the Mayo Clinic whose specialties include the study of physiology in elite athletes, said that along with the physical factors (injuries, diet, strength training and recovery) there's a situational element to a quarterback's longevity.
“What are they being asked to do?” Joyner said this week. “Are they carrying the team or asked to be more situational? And what tools do they have? The NFL is crazy, you get one deep threat and all those possession receivers become way better.”
Brees has been written off before, including in 2006, when the Miami Dolphins declined to sign him after examining his shoulder on his visit there as a free agent. There's danger in writing him off now in what could be his final season.
The Saints also have one of the game's best offensive minds in coach Sean Payton, who still has most of a season to figure out what works and what doesn't with his 41-year-old quarterback.
Regardless, this matchup between Brees and Rodgers is a lot different than when they last went head-to-head in 2014. Brees dissected the Packers that day (27-for-32 passing, a 138.4 rating), and Rodgers threw for 418 yards in the Saints' 43-24 blowout in the Superdome.
They are capable of going off in any given game, and maybe one or both will Sunday night. But we're more likely to see that one (Brees) is a different player than he was six years ago, and the other is in a much different offense.
WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS
for the extra corner.
If the defense decides to cover him with a safety, as the Lions did, or a linebacker, the Packers feel he has an athletic advantage.
The Saints feel the same way about Kamara and they can force a team to play its nickel defense all game long. Kamara is such an accomplished receiver that he can do anything a wideout can do in the passing game.
“He's a back that really can do it all,” safety Adrian Amos said. “He can catch out of the backfield. He can line up at receiver and run real receiver routes. He runs hard in-between the tackles. He's really one of the most versatile backs in the league.”
But here's the thing: Jones' strength is always going to be running the ball and the Packers can't ever lose sight of that. They can try to use him the way the Saints use Kamara, but it would be a misappropriation of his skills.
Sometimes coaches and offensive coordinators get enamored with ways to outsmart defenses instead of playing to their strengths and making the defense try to outsmart them.
Would it have been better to run Jones on second-and-3 or third-and-3 at the 25 against the Lions? Given the way he ran the ball in the second half, probably so. LaFleur was asked if the percentages were against him throwing a receiver route to a running back in that situation.
“It totally depends,” LaFleur said. “It depends on the leverage of the defender, who's guarding him. It totally depends on the look. Obviously, if it's versus a cornerback, we don't like it as much. But if we get it matched up on a linebacker, or maybe one of the safeties, then we like the matchup.”
There's no question Jones can be an asset in the passing game and you can't blame either Rodgers or LaFleur for using him that way early in the Lions game. You want to get the ball in his hands any way you can.
Go ahead and get the most out of Jones' talents. But don't forget that he stresses defenses the most when he's in the backfield. He's a 75-yard run waiting to happen and that's what really makes him special.